Daily Papers

We present Visuelle 2.0, the first dataset useful for facing diverse prediction problems that a fast-fashion company has to manage routinely. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the use of computer vision is substantial in this scenario. Visuelle 2.0 contains data for 6 seasons / 5355 clothing products of Nuna Lie, a famous Italian company with hundreds of shops located in different areas within the country. In particular, we focus on a specific prediction problem, namely short-observation new product sale forecasting (SO-fore). SO-fore assumes that the season has started and a set of new products is on the shelves of the different stores. The goal is to forecast the sales for a particular horizon, given a short, available past (few weeks), since no earlier statistics are available. To be successful, SO-fore approaches should capture this short past and exploit other modalities or exogenous data. To these aims, Visuelle 2.0 is equipped with disaggregated data at the item-shop level and multi-modal information for each clothing item, allowing computer vision approaches to come into play. The main message that we deliver is that the use of image data with deep networks boosts performances obtained when using the time series in long-term forecasting scenarios, ameliorating the WAPE and MAE by up to 5.48% and 7% respectively compared to competitive baseline methods. The dataset is available at https://humaticslab.github.io/forecasting/visuelle

We ask whether pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) improve on established econometric benchmarks for forecasting realized volatility. Using the VOLARE dataset, we conduct the first systematic comparison of nine zero-shot TSFMs against eight econometric specifications, including the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) family, across 50 assets in equities, foreign exchange, and futures, and three forecast horizons, with formal pairwise and multi-model forecast-comparison tests. Foundation models do not deliver a uniform gain. Pooled losses favor them, but the advantage is concentrated in a few outlier assets; averaging each asset's loss ratio to a well-specified Log-HAR benchmark, so that no single asset dominates, only one small model, Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), beats the benchmark at every horizon, and by a narrow margin. The other foundation models do not improve on Log-HAR, and the econometric benchmarks remain competitive throughout. A Mincer--Zarnowitz recalibration, which removes level and scale bias from every forecast, shows that much of the short-horizon advantage reflects better-scaled forecasts rather than better prediction of volatility dynamics, and only at the monthly horizon does a genuine informational gain remain. Because this edge is thin and even TTM is not best on every asset, a simple equal-weight average of TTM and Log-HAR matches the best single model and enters the Model Confidence Set for 98 to 100\% of assets, more often than either component alone, so a forecaster need not identify the best model for each asset in advance. Our most durable finding is that performance varies so much across foundation-model architectures that choosing the right architecture matters more than the broader choice between foundation and econometric models.

With the rapid progress of recent years, techniques that generate and manipulate multimedia content can now guarantee a very advanced level of realism. The boundary between real and synthetic media has become very thin. On the one hand, this opens the door to a series of exciting applications in different fields such as creative arts, advertising, film production, video games. On the other hand, it poses enormous security threats. Software packages freely available on the web allow any individual, without special skills, to create very realistic fake images and videos. So-called deepfakes can be used to manipulate public opinion during elections, commit fraud, discredit or blackmail people. Potential abuses are limited only by human imagination. Therefore, there is an urgent need for automated tools capable of detecting false multimedia content and avoiding the spread of dangerous false information. This review paper aims to present an analysis of the methods for visual media integrity verification, that is, the detection of manipulated images and videos. Special emphasis will be placed on the emerging phenomenon of deepfakes and, from the point of view of the forensic analyst, on modern data-driven forensic methods. The analysis will help to highlight the limits of current forensic tools, the most relevant issues, the upcoming challenges, and suggest future directions for research.

Recent results from Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), in combination with cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements, have focused renewed attention on dark energy models with a time-varying equation-of-state parameter, w(z). In this paper, we describe the simplest, physically motivated models of evolving dark energy that are consistent with the recent data, a broad subclass of the so-called thawing scalar field models that we dub w_ϕCDM. We provide a quasi-universal, quasi-one-parameter functional fit to the scalar-field w_ϕ(z) that captures the behavior of these models more informatively than the standard w_0w_a phenomenological parametrization; their behavior is completely described by the current value of the equation-of-state parameter, w_0=w(z=0). Combining current data from BAO (DESI Data Release 2), the CMB (Planck and ACT), large-scale structure (DES Year-3 3times2pt), SNe Ia (DES-SN5YR), and strong lensing (TDCOSMO + SLACS), for w_ϕCDM we obtain w_0=-0.904_{-0.033}^{+0.034}, 2.9σ discrepant from the Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model. The Bayesian evidence ratio substantially favors this w_ϕCDM model over ΛCDM. The data combination that yields the strongest discrepancy with ΛCDM is BAO+SNe Ia, for which w_0=-0.837^{+0.044}_{-0.045}, 3.6σ discrepant from ΛCDM and with a Bayesian evidence ratio strongly in favor. We find that the so-called S_8 tension between the CMB and large-scale structure is slightly reduced in these models, while the Hubble tension is slightly increased. We forecast constraints on these models from near-future surveys (DESI-extension and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory LSST), showing that the current best-fit w_ϕCDM model will be distinguishable from ΛCDM at over 9σ.

The Simons Observatory (SO), due to start full science operations in early 2025, aims to set tight constraints on inflationary physics by inferring the tensor-to-scalar ratio r from measurements of CMB polarization B-modes. Its nominal design targets a precision σ(r=0) leq 0.003 without delensing. Achieving this goal and further reducing uncertainties requires the mitigation of other sources of large-scale B-modes such as Galactic foregrounds and weak gravitational lensing. We present an analysis pipeline aiming to estimate r by including delensing within a cross-spectral likelihood, and demonstrate it on SO-like simulations. Lensing B-modes are synthesised using internal CMB lensing reconstructions as well as Planck-like CIB maps and LSST-like galaxy density maps. This B-mode template is then introduced into SO's power-spectrum-based foreground-cleaning algorithm by extending the likelihood function to include all auto- and cross-spectra between the lensing template and the SAT B-modes. Within this framework, we demonstrate the equivalence of map-based and cross-spectral delensing and use it to motivate an optimized pixel-weighting scheme for power spectrum estimation. We start by validating our pipeline in the simplistic case of uniform foreground spectral energy distributions (SEDs). In the absence of primordial B-modes, σ(r) decreases by 37% as a result of delensing. Tensor modes at the level of r=0.01 are successfully detected by our pipeline. Even with more realistic foreground models including spatial variations in the dust and synchrotron spectral properties, we obtain unbiased estimates of r by employing the moment-expansion method. In this case, delensing-related improvements range between 27% and 31%. These results constitute the first realistic assessment of the delensing performance at SO's nominal sensitivity level. (Abridged)

Human pose forecasting garners attention for its diverse applications. However, challenges in modeling the multi-modal nature of human motion and intricate interactions among agents persist, particularly with longer timescales and more agents. In this paper, we propose an interaction-aware trajectory-conditioned long-term multi-agent human pose forecasting model, utilizing a coarse-to-fine prediction approach: multi-modal global trajectories are initially forecasted, followed by respective local pose forecasts conditioned on each mode. In doing so, our Trajectory2Pose model introduces a graph-based agent-wise interaction module for a reciprocal forecast of local motion-conditioned global trajectory and trajectory-conditioned local pose. Our model effectively handles the multi-modality of human motion and the complexity of long-term multi-agent interactions, improving performance in complex environments. Furthermore, we address the lack of long-term (6s+) multi-agent (5+) datasets by constructing a new dataset from real-world images and 2D annotations, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of our proposed model. State-of-the-art prediction performance on both complex and simpler datasets confirms the generalized effectiveness of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/Jaewoo97/T2P.

Weather forecasts are fundamentally uncertain, so predicting the range of probable weather scenarios is crucial for important decisions, from warning the public about hazardous weather, to planning renewable energy use. Here, we introduce GenCast, a probabilistic weather model with greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world, the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ensemble forecast, ENS. Unlike traditional approaches, which are based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), GenCast is a machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) method, trained on decades of reanalysis data. GenCast generates an ensemble of stochastic 15-day global forecasts, at 12-hour steps and 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution, for over 80 surface and atmospheric variables, in 8 minutes. It has greater skill than ENS on 97.4% of 1320 targets we evaluated, and better predicts extreme weather, tropical cyclones, and wind power production. This work helps open the next chapter in operational weather forecasting, where critical weather-dependent decisions are made with greater accuracy and efficiency.

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of most forecasting methods is restricted in data-sparse commercial applications. While there is recent work in the setting of very limited initial data (so-called `zero-shot' forecasting), its performance is inconsistent depending on the data used for pretraining. In this work, we take a different approach and devise ForecastPFN, the first zero-shot forecasting model trained purely on a novel synthetic data distribution. ForecastPFN is a prior-data fitted network, trained to approximate Bayesian inference, which can make predictions on a new time series dataset in a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments, we show that zero-shot predictions made by ForecastPFN are more accurate and faster compared to state-of-the-art forecasting methods, even when the other methods are allowed to train on hundreds of additional in-distribution data points.

The task of collaborative human pose forecasting stands for predicting the future poses of multiple interacting people, given those in previous frames. Predicting two people in interaction, instead of each separately, promises better performance, due to their body-body motion correlations. But the task has remained so far primarily unexplored. In this paper, we review the progress in human pose forecasting and provide an in-depth assessment of the single-person practices that perform best for 2-body collaborative motion forecasting. Our study confirms the positive impact of frequency input representations, space-time separable and fully-learnable interaction adjacencies for the encoding GCN and FC decoding. Other single-person practices do not transfer to 2-body, so the proposed best ones do not include hierarchical body modeling or attention-based interaction encoding. We further contribute a novel initialization procedure for the 2-body spatial interaction parameters of the encoder, which benefits performance and stability. Altogether, our proposed 2-body pose forecasting best practices yield a performance improvement of 21.9% over the state-of-the-art on the most recent ExPI dataset, whereby the novel initialization accounts for 3.5%. See our project page at https://www.pinlab.org/bestpractices2body

Foreground object search (FOS) aims to find compatible foreground objects for a given background image, producing realistic composite image. We observe that competitive retrieval performance could be achieved by using a discriminator to predict the compatibility of composite image, but this approach has unaffordable time cost. To this end, we propose a novel FOS method via distilling composite feature (DiscoFOS). Specifically, the abovementioned discriminator serves as teacher network. The student network employs two encoders to extract foreground feature and background feature. Their interaction output is enforced to match the composite image feature from the teacher network. Additionally, previous works did not release their datasets, so we contribute two datasets for FOS task: S-FOSD dataset with synthetic composite images and R-FOSD dataset with real composite images. Extensive experiments on our two datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over previous approaches. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/bcmi/Foreground-Object-Search-Dataset-FOSD.

A ventilator simulation system can make mechanical ventilation easier and more effective. As a result, predicting a patient's ventilator pressure is essential when designing a simulation ventilator. We suggested a hybrid deep learning-based approach to forecast required ventilator pressure for patients. This system is made up of Bi-LSTM and Bi-GRU networks. The SELU activation function was used in our proposed model. MAE and MSE were used to examine the accuracy of the proposed model so that our proposed methodology can be applied to real-world problems. The model performed well against test data and created far too few losses. Major parts of our research were data collection, data analysis, data cleaning, building hybrid Bi-LSTM and Bi-GRU model, training the model, model evaluation, and result analysis. We compared the results of our research with some contemporary works, and our proposed model performed better than those models.

Large vision-language models such as CLIP struggle with long captions because they align images and texts as undifferentiated wholes. Fine-grained vision-language understanding requires hierarchical semantics capturing both global context and localized details across visual and textual domains. Yet linguistic hierarchies from syntax or semantics rarely match visual organization, and purely visual hierarchies tend to fragment scenes into appearance-driven parts without semantic focus. We propose CAFT (Cross-domain Alignment of Forests and Trees), a hierarchical image-text representation learning framework that aligns global and local semantics across images and long captions without pixel-level supervision. Coupling a fine-to-coarse visual encoder with a hierarchical text transformer, it uses a hierarchical alignment loss that matches whole images with whole captions while biasing region-sentence correspondences, so that coarse semantics are built from fine-grained evidence rather than from aggregation untethered to part-level grounding. Trained on 30M image-text pairs, CAFT achieves state-of-the-art performance on six long-text retrieval benchmarks and exhibits strong scaling behavior. Experiments show that hierarchical cross-domain alignment enables fine-grained, visually grounded image-text representations to emerge without explicit region-level supervision.

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) which are a branch of artificial intelligence, have shown their high value in lots of applications and are used as a suitable forecasting method. Therefore, this study aims at forecasting imports in OECD member selected countries and Iran for 20 seasons from 2021 to 2025 by means of ANN. Data related to the imports of such countries collected over 50 years from 1970 to 2019 from valid resources including World Bank, WTO, IFM,the data turned into seasonal data to increase the number of collected data for better performance and high accuracy of the network by using Diz formula that there were totally 200 data related to imports. This study has used LSTM to analyse data in Pycharm. 75% of data considered as training data and 25% considered as test data and the results of the analysis were forecasted with 99% accuracy which revealed the validity and reliability of the output. Since the imports is consumption function and since the consumption is influenced during Covid-19 Pandemic, so it is time-consuming to correct and improve it to be influential on the imports, thus the imports in the years after Covid-19 Pandemic has had a fluctuating trend.

Deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial attacks. In this paper, we take the role of investigators who want to trace the attack and identify the source, that is, the particular model which the adversarial examples are generated from. Techniques derived would aid forensic investigation of attack incidents and serve as deterrence to potential attacks. We consider the buyers-seller setting where a machine learning model is to be distributed to various buyers and each buyer receives a slightly different copy with same functionality. A malicious buyer generates adversarial examples from a particular copy M_i and uses them to attack other copies. From these adversarial examples, the investigator wants to identify the source M_i. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage separate-and-trace framework. The model separation stage generates multiple copies of a model for a same classification task. This process injects unique characteristics into each copy so that adversarial examples generated have distinct and traceable features. We give a parallel structure which embeds a ``tracer'' in each copy, and a noise-sensitive training loss to achieve this goal. The tracing stage takes in adversarial examples and a few candidate models, and identifies the likely source. Based on the unique features induced by the noise-sensitive loss function, we could effectively trace the potential adversarial copy by considering the output logits from each tracer. Empirical results show that it is possible to trace the origin of the adversarial example and the mechanism can be applied to a wide range of architectures and datasets.

AI-generated synthetic media, also called Deepfakes, have significantly influenced so many domains, from entertainment to cybersecurity. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and Diffusion Models (DMs) are the main frameworks used to create Deepfakes, producing highly realistic yet fabricated content. While these technologies open up new creative possibilities, they also bring substantial ethical and security risks due to their potential misuse. The rise of such advanced media has led to the development of a cognitive bias known as Impostor Bias, where individuals doubt the authenticity of multimedia due to the awareness of AI's capabilities. As a result, Deepfake detection has become a vital area of research, focusing on identifying subtle inconsistencies and artifacts with machine learning techniques, especially Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). Research in forensic Deepfake technology encompasses five main areas: detection, attribution and recognition, passive authentication, detection in realistic scenarios, and active authentication. This paper reviews the primary algorithms that address these challenges, examining their advantages, limitations, and future prospects.

Existing volumetric methods for predicting 3D human pose estimation are accurate, but computationally expensive and optimized for single time-step prediction. We present TEMPO, an efficient multi-view pose estimation model that learns a robust spatiotemporal representation, improving pose accuracy while also tracking and forecasting human pose. We significantly reduce computation compared to the state-of-the-art by recurrently computing per-person 2D pose features, fusing both spatial and temporal information into a single representation. In doing so, our model is able to use spatiotemporal context to predict more accurate human poses without sacrificing efficiency. We further use this representation to track human poses over time as well as predict future poses. Finally, we demonstrate that our model is able to generalize across datasets without scene-specific fine-tuning. TEMPO achieves 10% better MPJPE with a 33times improvement in FPS compared to TesseTrack on the challenging CMU Panoptic Studio dataset.

Though the advancement of pre-trained large language models unfolds, the exploration of building a unified model for language and other multi-modal data, such as motion, remains challenging and untouched so far. Fortunately, human motion displays a semantic coupling akin to human language, often perceived as a form of body language. By fusing language data with large-scale motion models, motion-language pre-training that can enhance the performance of motion-related tasks becomes feasible. Driven by this insight, we propose MotionGPT, a unified, versatile, and user-friendly motion-language model to handle multiple motion-relevant tasks. Specifically, we employ the discrete vector quantization for human motion and transfer 3D motion into motion tokens, similar to the generation process of word tokens. Building upon this "motion vocabulary", we perform language modeling on both motion and text in a unified manner, treating human motion as a specific language. Moreover, inspired by prompt learning, we pre-train MotionGPT with a mixture of motion-language data and fine-tune it on prompt-based question-and-answer tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MotionGPT achieves state-of-the-art performances on multiple motion tasks including text-driven motion generation, motion captioning, motion prediction, and motion in-between.

Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up. This study develops a machine learning framework to forecast such volatility by incorporating supply-chain-aware features and explicitly modelling the country's two cultivation seasons, Maha (October-April) and Yala (May-September). An integrated dataset was constructed by combining retail and farmer-gate prices with origin-aligned weather variables, diesel costs, and exchange rates across 12 vegetable varieties and 14 market centres from 2013 to 2019. A gradient-boosted ensemble model (XGBoost and LightGBM) was trained and optimised using Optuna, and unified and season-specific configurations were compared. Results show that season-specific models improve within-season fit, with the Yala-specific model achieving the highest R2 of 0.9420 (95% CI [0.690, 1.000]), while the unified model delivers the best overall predictive accuracy of 90.84% (95% CI [88.34%, 91.52%]) and an R2 of 0.9281 (95% CI [0.760, 1.000]). Notably, the unified model maintains 85.96% accuracy on a completely unseen 2024 hyperinflationary period without retraining, successfully tracking major price surges. These findings suggest that agricultural price movements in import-constrained markets are meaningfully predictable when models capture supply-chain dynamics, offering practical value for early warning and decision making by farmers, traders, and policymakers. Existing studies on Sri Lankan vegetable prices are confined to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) applied to single markets, with no supply-chain features, seasonal segmentation, or cross-regime validation.

Energy time-series analysis describes the process of analyzing past energy observations and possibly external factors so as to predict the future. Different tasks are involved in the general field of energy time-series analysis and forecasting, with electric load demand forecasting, personalized energy consumption forecasting, as well as renewable energy generation forecasting being among the most common ones. Following the exceptional performance of Deep Learning (DL) in a broad area of vision tasks, DL models have successfully been utilized in time-series forecasting tasks. This paper aims to provide insight into various DL methods geared towards improving the performance in energy time-series forecasting tasks, with special emphasis in Greek Energy Market, and equip the reader with the necessary knowledge to apply these methods in practice.

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards can in principle train calibrated probabilistic forecasters, since a proper scoring rule such as the Brier score is computed from outcomes alone and is minimized in expectation by the true probability. In practice it degrades calibration, and existing remedies address epistemic uncertainty, where a model's confidence accompanies a verifiably correct or incorrect answer. We study aleatoric forecasting, where the forecast itself is the output and the label is one stochastic outcome, taking NFL in-game win probability as a testbed with the betting market as a reference. Rewarding the realized per-play outcome fails, because the single outcome is a noisy target and the policy gradient corrupts the chain of thought. We introduce a verifiable, label-free reward, a state-conditioned empirical win rate estimated from past outcomes, that removes the label noise, and we keep the gradient off the reasoning, by direct prediction or a gradient mask, so it cannot be corrupted. Trained with this reward alone, without human labels or supervised fine-tuning, a 7B model reaches the calibration of the betting market by direct prediction and is better calibrated than a zero-shot frontier model. That frontier model and a tabular estimator reach the same Brier score as this model, identifying the market's small remaining edge as live in-game information beyond their shared inputs. Masking the gradient, rather than dropping the chain of thought, preserves reasoning from which the forecast follows, which ordinary chain-of-thought training corrupts.

Watermarks for AI-generated images are meant to support downstream decisions about provenance, manipulation, and trust. In the settings that motivate watermark removal, therefore, success means more than causing the watermark test to fail. A successful remover must also preserve the utility of the image and make the output forensically indistinguishable from clean content, so that defeating the verifier restores deniability rather than merely replacing one detection signal with another. We show that current watermark removal attacks fail this stronger objective. Across six state-of-the-art removers spanning four attack families, independent forensic detectors distinguish removal-processed outputs from clean images at over 98% true-positive rate under a 1% false-positive budget. Thus, current removers often replace the watermark with a different detectable signal. Using UnMarker (IEEE S&P 2025) as a detailed case study, we show that this signal persists under common post-processing, exhibits a characteristic two-regime spectral deformation, and yields a three-way tension among removal success, image quality, and forensic stealth. These results show that existing removal benchmarks are incomplete: they reward verifier evasion and utility preservation while omitting forensic stealth. A workable watermark remover must satisfy all three conditions at once: watermark evasion, utility preservation, and forensic indistinguishability from clean content.

Process Model Forecasting (PMF) aims to predict how the control-flow structure of a process evolves over time by modeling the temporal dynamics of directly-follows (DF) relations, complementing predictive process monitoring that focuses on single-case prefixes. Prior benchmarks show that machine learning and deep learning models provide only modest gains over statistical baselines, mainly due to the sparsity and heterogeneity of the DF time series. We investigate Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs), large pre-trained models for generic time series, as an alternative for PMF. Using DF time series derived from real-life event logs, we compare zero-shot use of TSFMs, without additional training, with fine-tuned variants adapted on PMF-specific data. TSFMs generally achieve lower forecasting errors (MAE and RMSE) than traditional and specialized models trained from scratch on the same logs, indicating effective transfer of temporal structure from non-process domains. While fine-tuning can further improve accuracy, the gains are often small and may disappear on smaller or more complex datasets, so zero-shot use remains a strong default. Our study highlights the generalization capability and data efficiency of TSFMs for process-related time series and, to the best of our knowledge, provides the first systematic evaluation of temporal foundation models for PMF.

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous variables can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting paradigms that either treat all the variables equally or ignore exogenous information, this paper focuses on a more practical setting: time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel approach, TimeXer, to ingest external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With deftly designed embedding layers, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are used simultaneously. Moreover, global endogenous tokens are learned to effectively bridge the causal information underlying exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks and exhibits notable generality and scalability. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimeXer.

Feature engineering is required to obtain better results for time series forecasting, and decomposition is a crucial one. One decomposition approach often cannot be used for numerous forecasting tasks since the standard time series decomposition lacks flexibility and robustness. Traditional feature selection relies heavily on preexisting domain knowledge, has no generic methodology, and requires a lot of labor. However, most time series prediction models based on deep learning typically suffer from interpretability issue, so the "black box" results lead to a lack of confidence. To deal with the above issues forms the motivation of the thesis. In the paper we propose TSDFNet as a neural network with self-decomposition mechanism and an attentive feature fusion mechanism, It abandons feature engineering as a preprocessing convention and creatively integrates it as an internal module with the deep model. The self-decomposition mechanism empowers TSDFNet with extensible and adaptive decomposition capabilities for any time series, users can choose their own basis functions to decompose the sequence into temporal and generalized spatial dimensions. Attentive feature fusion mechanism has the ability to capture the importance of external variables and the causality with target variables. It can automatically suppress the unimportant features while enhancing the effective ones, so that users do not have to struggle with feature selection. Moreover, TSDFNet is easy to look into the "black box" of the deep neural network by feature visualization and analyze the prediction results. We demonstrate performance improvements over existing widely accepted models on more than a dozen datasets, and three experiments showcase the interpretability of TSDFNet.

Unified models for robot manipulation aim to equip one policy with both the semantic priors of pretrained VLMs and the physical dynamics learned through future prediction. In practice, existing designs tend to erode the semantics of the pretrained backbone, suffer interference among heterogeneous objectives, and learn future prediction from scratch in pixel space, leaving the dynamics priors of pretrained video generators unexploited. We present InternVLA-A1.5, which builds the policy on a native VLM backbone that keeps training on VQA and subtask prediction, and attaches a lightweight unified expert for continuous action generation. Future prediction is recast as a latent-querying problem, where a small set of learnable foresight tokens condenses the task-relevant future into a compact latent code under the supervision of a frozen pretrained video generation model, so the policy inherits world-model dynamics priors without ever learning pixel-level generation. The video branch is discarded at inference, keeping real-time control. Pretrained on 1.2M robot episodes and 3M multimodal samples, InternVLA-A1.5 achieves the best overall results on all six simulation benchmarks. In the real world, the preserved semantics deliver the strongest compositional generalization on held-out instruction bindings, and the two designs together sustain long-horizon execution.

Accurate and efficient long-term multivariate time series forecasting requires capturing recurring temporal structure while keeping inference cheap across many variables and horizons. Frequency-space models represent long-range and periodic variation compactly, but they typically process the real and imaginary spectral components as weakly coupled streams and treat periodic cues as ordinary input features, even when such cues are unreliable. This paper proposes FRWKV-Plus, a lightweight periodic-aware frequency-space forecasting model built on the efficient FRWKV backbone. FRWKV-Plus introduces a cross-branch spectral gate that reweights each spectral branch using a summary of its sibling branch, and a trust-gated residual correction that converts compact within-period context into a bounded, sign-flexible adjustment of these gates under a learned, data-dependent trust score. By construction, the correction is identity-preserving at initialization and strictly bounded, so periodic evidence can refine but never dominate or invert the base interaction. On seven standard benchmarks, FRWKV-Plus is consistently competitive with strong linear, frequency-domain, recurrent-style, and Transformer-based forecasters while preserving the lightweight profile of the backbone. Controlled three-seed ablations show that each component contributes, that the benefit is modest on strongly periodic data and pronounced on the harder Exchange and ILI datasets, and that the within-period context is the most influential single component. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/yangqingyuan-byte/FRWKV-plus.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with fully interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand process, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand arrives at the destination, is served from stock or recorded as backlog, and triggers replenishment through the network. The state vector tracks per-node on-hand inventory with outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, so the dynamics close as a Markov chain on a tractable state space whose transition kernel acts linearly on the empirical distribution of the state. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, and three conservation laws encoded in the Markov chain serve as verification tools when users extend the simulator. We release datasets at two catalogue scales (C=50 and C=200) with six scenario sweeps producing 30 additional rollouts and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations, exhibiting dynamics absent from fixed TSF benchmarks: variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, forward UQ from parameter uncertainty unavailable on standard TSF datasets, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH.

There is no limit to how much a robot might explore and learn, but all of that knowledge needs to be searchable and actionable. Within language research, retrieval augmented generation (RAG) has become the workhouse of large-scale non-parametric knowledge, however existing techniques do not directly transfer to the embodied domain, which is multimodal, data is highly correlated, and perception requires abstraction. To address these challenges, we introduce Embodied-RAG, a framework that enhances the foundational model of an embodied agent with a non-parametric memory system capable of autonomously constructing hierarchical knowledge for both navigation and language generation. Embodied-RAG handles a full range of spatial and semantic resolutions across diverse environments and query types, whether for a specific object or a holistic description of ambiance. At its core, Embodied-RAG's memory is structured as a semantic forest, storing language descriptions at varying levels of detail. This hierarchical organization allows the system to efficiently generate context-sensitive outputs across different robotic platforms. We demonstrate that Embodied-RAG effectively bridges RAG to the robotics domain, successfully handling over 200 explanation and navigation queries across 19 environments, highlighting its promise for general-purpose non-parametric system for embodied agents.

Automated essay scoring (AES) is a useful tool in English as a Foreign Language (EFL) writing education, offering real-time essay scores for students and instructors. However, previous AES models were trained on essays and scores irrelevant to the practical scenarios of EFL writing education and usually provided a single holistic score due to the lack of appropriate datasets. In this paper, we release DREsS, a large-scale, standard dataset for rubric-based automated essay scoring with 48.9K samples in total. DREsS comprises three sub-datasets: DREsS_New, DREsS_Std., and DREsS_CASE. We collect DREsS_New, a real-classroom dataset with 2.3K essays authored by EFL undergraduate students and scored by English education experts. We also standardize existing rubric-based essay scoring datasets as DREsS_Std. We suggest CASE, a corruption-based augmentation strategy for essays, which generates 40.1K synthetic samples of DREsS_CASE and improves the baseline results by 45.44%. DREsS will enable further research to provide a more accurate and practical AES system for EFL writing education.

Generative machine learning offers new opportunities to better understand complex Earth system dynamics. Recent diffusion-based methods address spectral biases and improve ensemble calibration in weather forecasting compared to deterministic methods, yet have so far proven difficult to scale stably at high resolutions. We introduce AERIS, a 1.3 to 80B parameter pixel-level Swin diffusion transformer to address this gap, and SWiPe, a generalizable technique that composes window parallelism with sequence and pipeline parallelism to shard window-based transformers without added communication cost or increased global batch size. On Aurora (10,080 nodes), AERIS sustains 10.21 ExaFLOPS (mixed precision) and a peak performance of 11.21 ExaFLOPS with 1 times 1 patch size on the 0.25{\deg} ERA5 dataset, achieving 95.5% weak scaling efficiency, and 81.6% strong scaling efficiency. AERIS outperforms the IFS ENS and remains stable on seasonal scales to 90 days, highlighting the potential of billion-parameter diffusion models for weather and climate prediction.

Transfers play a pivotal role in shaping a football club's success, yet forecasting whether a transfer will succeed remains difficult due to the strong context-dependence of on-field performance. Existing evaluation practices often rely on static summary statistics or post-hoc value models, which fail to capture how a player's contribution adapts to a new tactical environment or different teammates. To address this gap, we introduce EventGPT, a player-conditioned, value-aware next-event prediction model built on a GPT-style autoregressive transformer. Our model treats match play as a sequence of discrete tokens, jointly learning to predict the next on-ball action's type, location, timing, and its estimated residual On-Ball Value (rOBV) based on the preceding context and player identity. A key contribution of this framework is the ability to perform counterfactual simulations. By substituting learned player embeddings into new event sequences, we can simulate how a player's behavioral distribution and value profile would change when placed in a different team or tactical structure. Evaluated on five seasons of Premier League event data, EventGPT outperforms existing sequence-based baselines in next-event prediction accuracy and spatial precision. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model's practical utility for transfer analysis through case studies-such as comparing striker performance across different systems and identifying stylistic replacements for specific roles-showing that our approach provides a principled method for evaluating transfer fit.

The integration of generative AI in education is expanding, yet empirical analyses of large-scale and real-world interactions between students and AI systems still remain limited. Addressing this gap, we present RECIPE4U (RECIPE for University), a dataset sourced from a semester-long experiment with 212 college students in English as Foreign Language (EFL) writing courses. During the study, students engaged in dialogues with ChatGPT to revise their essays. RECIPE4U includes comprehensive records of these interactions, including conversation logs, students' intent, students' self-rated satisfaction, and students' essay edit histories. In particular, we annotate the students' utterances in RECIPE4U with 13 intention labels based on our coding schemes. We establish baseline results for two subtasks in task-oriented dialogue systems within educational contexts: intent detection and satisfaction estimation. As a foundational step, we explore student-ChatGPT interaction patterns through RECIPE4U and analyze them by focusing on students' dialogue, essay data statistics, and students' essay edits. We further illustrate potential applications of RECIPE4U dataset for enhancing the incorporation of LLMs in educational frameworks. RECIPE4U is publicly available at https://zeunie.github.io/RECIPE4U/.

Deformable Gaussian Splatting (GS) accomplishes photorealistic dynamic 3-D reconstruction from dense multi-view video (MVV) by learning to deform a canonical GS representation. However, in filmmaking, tight budgets can result in sparse camera configurations, which limits state-of-the-art (SotA) methods when capturing complex dynamic features. To address this issue, we introduce an approach that splits the canonical Gaussians and deformation field into foreground and background components using a sparse set of masks for frames at t=0. Each representation is separately trained on different loss functions during canonical pre-training. Then, during dynamic training, different parameters are modeled for each deformation field following common filmmaking practices. The foreground stage contains diverse dynamic features so changes in color, position and rotation are learned. While, the background containing film-crew and equipment, is typically dimmer and less dynamic so only changes in point position are learned. Experiments on 3-D and 2.5-D entertainment datasets show that our method produces SotA qualitative and quantitative results; up to 3 PSNR higher with half the model size on 3-D scenes. Unlike the SotA and without the need for dense mask supervision, our method also produces segmented dynamic reconstructions including transparent and dynamic textures. Code and video comparisons are available online: https://interims-git.github.io/

We present a new method for measuring the E_G statistic that combines two CMB secondaries -- the kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect and CMB lensing -- for the first time to probe gravity on linear scales. The E_G statistic is a discriminating tool for modified gravity theories, which leave imprints in lensing observables and peculiar velocities. Existing E_G measurements rely on redshift space distortions (RSD) to infer the velocity field. Here, we employ kSZ velocity-reconstruction instead of RSD, a complementary technique that constrains the largest-scale modes better than the galaxy survey it uses. We construct a novel V_G estimator that involves a ratio between cross-correlations of a galaxy sample with a CMB convergence map and that with a 3D kSZ-reconstructed velocity field. We forecast for current and upcoming CMB maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and the Simons Observatory (SO), respectively, in combination with three spectroscopic galaxy samples from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We find cumulative detection significances in the range S/N sim 20-55, which can robustly test the scale-independent E_G prediction under general relativity (GR) at different effective redshifts of the galaxy samples (zapprox 0.73, 1.33, 1.84). In particular, the SOtimesDESI LRG measurement would be able to distinguish between GR and certain modified gravity models, including Hu-Sawicki f(R) and Chameleon theories, with high confidence. The proposed V_G estimator opens up a new avenue for stress-testing gravity and the LambdaCDM+GR model at the largest observable scales.

Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable foundation model should also encode meaningful statistical relationships between the underlying physical variables. This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Aurora foundation model in predicting hydrological variables, which were not considered during pretraining. We introduce a lightweight approach using shallow decoders trained on the latent representations of the pretrained model to predict these new variables. As a baseline, we compare this to fine-tuning the full model, which allows further optimization of the latent space while incorporating new variables into both inputs and outputs. The decoder-based approach requires 50% less training time and 35% less memory, while achieving strong accuracy across various hydrological variables and preserving desirable properties of the foundation model, such as autoregressive stability. Notably, decoder accuracy depends on the physical correlation between the new variables and those used during pretraining, indicating that Aurora's latent space captures meaningful physical relationships. In this sense, we argue that an important quality metric for foundation models in Earth sciences is their ability to be extended to new variables without a full fine-tuning. This provides a new perspective for making foundation models more accessible to communities with limited computational resources, while supporting broader adoption in Earth sciences.

Nowadays, autonomous cars can drive smoothly in ordinary cases, and it is widely recognized that realistic sensor simulation will play a critical role in solving remaining corner cases by simulating them. To this end, we propose an autonomous driving simulator based upon neural radiance fields (NeRFs). Compared with existing works, ours has three notable features: (1) Instance-aware. Our simulator models the foreground instances and background environments separately with independent networks so that the static (e.g., size and appearance) and dynamic (e.g., trajectory) properties of instances can be controlled separately. (2) Modular. Our simulator allows flexible switching between different modern NeRF-related backbones, sampling strategies, input modalities, etc. We expect this modular design to boost academic progress and industrial deployment of NeRF-based autonomous driving simulation. (3) Realistic. Our simulator set new state-of-the-art photo-realism results given the best module selection. Our simulator will be open-sourced while most of our counterparts are not. Project page: https://open-air-sun.github.io/mars/.

Image Captioning, the task of automatic generation of image captions, has attracted attentions from researchers in many fields of computer science, being computer vision, natural language processing and machine learning in recent years. This paper contributes to research on Image Captioning task in terms of extending dataset to a different language - Vietnamese. So far, there is no existed Image Captioning dataset for Vietnamese language, so this is the foremost fundamental step for developing Vietnamese Image Captioning. In this scope, we first build a dataset which contains manually written captions for images from Microsoft COCO dataset relating to sports played with balls, we called this dataset UIT-ViIC. UIT-ViIC consists of 19,250 Vietnamese captions for 3,850 images. Following that, we evaluate our dataset on deep neural network models and do comparisons with English dataset and two Vietnamese datasets built by different methods. UIT-ViIC is published on our lab website for research purposes.

Conversational agents are increasingly used to address emotional needs on top of information needs. One use case of increasing interest are counselling-style mental health and behaviour change interventions, with large language model (LLM)-based approaches becoming more popular. Research in this context so far has been largely system-focused, foregoing the aspect of user behaviour and the impact this can have on LLM-generated texts. To address this issue, we share a dataset containing text-based user interactions related to behaviour change with two GPT-4-based conversational agents collected in a preregistered user study. This dataset includes conversation data, user language analysis, perception measures, and user feedback for LLM-generated turns, and can offer valuable insights to inform the design of such systems based on real interactions.

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

The goal of image composition is merging a foreground object into a background image to obtain a realistic composite image. Recently, generative composition methods are built on large pretrained diffusion models, due to their unprecedented image generation ability. They train a model on abundant pairs of foregrounds and backgrounds, so that it can be directly applied to a new pair of foreground and background at test time. However, the generated results often lose the foreground details and exhibit noticeable artifacts. In this work, we propose an embarrassingly simple approach named DreamCom inspired by DreamBooth. Specifically, given a few reference images for a subject, we finetune text-guided inpainting diffusion model to associate this subject with a special token and inpaint this subject in the specified bounding box. We also construct a new dataset named MureCom well-tailored for this task.

We introduce a new approach to image forensics: placing physical refractive objects, which we call totems, into a scene so as to protect any photograph taken of that scene. Totems bend and redirect light rays, thus providing multiple, albeit distorted, views of the scene within a single image. A defender can use these distorted totem pixels to detect if an image has been manipulated. Our approach unscrambles the light rays passing through the totems by estimating their positions in the scene and using their known geometric and material properties. To verify a totem-protected image, we detect inconsistencies between the scene reconstructed from totem viewpoints and the scene's appearance from the camera viewpoint. Such an approach makes the adversarial manipulation task more difficult, as the adversary must modify both the totem and image pixels in a geometrically consistent manner without knowing the physical properties of the totem. Unlike prior learning-based approaches, our method does not require training on datasets of specific manipulations, and instead uses physical properties of the scene and camera to solve the forensics problem.

Despite advances in depth estimation, flying points remain a persistent failure mode: near object boundaries, depth estimators often predict spurious 3D points in the empty space between foreground and background surfaces. We trace this artifact to a standard modeling choice: assigning each pixel a single depth hypothesis. At boundaries, a pixel can straddle a foreground and a background surface, so its true depth is ambiguous between the two. A model that predicts a single depth cannot keep both possibilities, so training instead pulls the prediction toward an intermediate depth that lies on neither surface. We address this with MDA, a mixture-density representation that lets the model predict multiple depth hypotheses and their associated probabilities for each pixel. Near boundaries, different hypotheses can align with different surfaces, and the decoded depth is selected from one of these hypotheses rather than placed in the empty space between them. Across different backbones, MDA substantially improves boundary reconstruction and largely removes flying-point artifacts even under severe input blur, while adding negligible runtime overhead. The same mixture-density framework naturally extends to transparent objects, where it predicts multiple depth layers at transparent pixels, and to sky regions, where a dedicated component separates the unbounded sky from finite-depth regions, producing flying-point-free skylines. Project Page: https://biansy000.github.io/mda-site/.

A cheap swarm of unreliable agents can be steered to a correct consensus by a few strong, expensive "oracle" correctors. We ask how much one must spend, and where to place the oracles. We model the swarm as a consensus on a graph in which each oracle pins one node toward the truth at a cost-coupled, concave strength, and measure quality by the coherence H(R)=tr M(R)^{-1}. Our first result is that H stays submodular (each added oracle helps less than the last) even when the oracles differ in strength, so a cost-benefit greedy comes within 1-1/e of the best placement at any budget. Inverting the budget gives the budget-correctness frontier B*(eps), the least spend that guarantees an eps-correct consensus: closed-form on the complete graph, and a minimal oracle count k* when oracles cost the same. Whether a budget then buys a few strong oracles or many medium onese curvature of the cost-quality law: diminishing returns favour spreadsharply increasion. Measured onthe Qwen3 ladder (0.6-32B), the law is concave for math verificatio convex foremergent code tracing, so the verdict is genuinely task-dependent.https://github.com/YehudaItkin/budgeted-oracle-placemen

Deep neural networks can generate images that are astonishingly realistic, so much so that it is often hard for humans to distinguish them from actual photos. These achievements have been largely made possible by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). While deep fake images have been thoroughly investigated in the image domain - a classical approach from the area of image forensics - an analysis in the frequency domain has been missing so far. In this paper, we address this shortcoming and our results reveal that in frequency space, GAN-generated images exhibit severe artifacts that can be easily identified. We perform a comprehensive analysis, showing that these artifacts are consistent across different neural network architectures, data sets, and resolutions. In a further investigation, we demonstrate that these artifacts are caused by upsampling operations found in all current GAN architectures, indicating a structural and fundamental problem in the way images are generated via GANs. Based on this analysis, we demonstrate how the frequency representation can be used to identify deep fake images in an automated way, surpassing state-of-the-art methods.

Computer vision analysis of camera trap video footage is essential for wildlife conservation, as captured behaviours offer some of the earliest indicators of changes in population health. Recently, several high-impact animal behaviour datasets and methods have been introduced to encourage their use; however, the role of behaviour-correlated background information and its significant effect on out-of-distribution generalisation remain unexplored. In response, we present the PanAf-FGBG dataset, featuring 20 hours of wild chimpanzee behaviours, recorded at over 350 individual camera locations. Uniquely, it pairs every video with a chimpanzee (referred to as a foreground video) with a corresponding background video (with no chimpanzee) from the same camera location. We present two views of the dataset: one with overlapping camera locations and one with disjoint locations. This setup enables, for the first time, direct evaluation of in-distribution and out-of-distribution conditions, and for the impact of backgrounds on behaviour recognition models to be quantified. All clips come with rich behavioural annotations and metadata including unique camera IDs and detailed textual scene descriptions. Additionally, we establish several baselines and present a highly effective latent-space normalisation technique that boosts out-of-distribution performance by +5.42% mAP for convolutional and +3.75% mAP for transformer-based models. Finally, we provide an in-depth analysis on the role of backgrounds in out-of-distribution behaviour recognition, including the so far unexplored impact of background durations (i.e., the count of background frames within foreground videos).

In recent years, the state-of-the-art in deep learning has been dominated by very large models that have been pre-trained on vast amounts of data. The paradigm is very simple: Investing more computational resources (optimally) leads to better performance, and even predictably so; neural scaling laws have been derived that accurately forecast the performance of a network for a desired level of compute. This leads to the notion of a "compute-optimal" model, i.e. a model that allocates a given level of compute during training optimally to maximise performance. In this work, we extend the concept of optimality by allowing for an "adaptive" model, i.e. a model that can change its shape during the course of training. By allowing the shape to adapt, we can optimally traverse between the underlying scaling laws, leading to a significant reduction in the required compute to reach a given target performance. We focus on vision tasks and the family of Vision Transformers, where the patch size as well as the width naturally serve as adaptive shape parameters. We demonstrate that, guided by scaling laws, we can design compute-optimal adaptive models that beat their "static" counterparts.

The study proposes a quote-driven predictive automated market maker (AMM) platform with on-chain custody and settlement functions, alongside off-chain predictive reinforcement learning capabilities to improve liquidity provision of real-world AMMs. The proposed AMM architecture is an augmentation to the Uniswap V3, a cryptocurrency AMM protocol, by utilizing a novel market equilibrium pricing for reduced divergence and slippage loss. Further, the proposed architecture involves a predictive AMM capability, utilizing a deep hybrid Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Q-learning reinforcement learning framework that looks to improve market efficiency through better forecasts of liquidity concentration ranges, so liquidity starts moving to expected concentration ranges, prior to asset price movement, so that liquidity utilization is improved. The augmented protocol framework is expected have practical real-world implications, by (i) reducing divergence loss for liquidity providers, (ii) reducing slippage for crypto-asset traders, while (iii) improving capital efficiency for liquidity provision for the AMM protocol. To our best knowledge, there are no known protocol or literature that are proposing similar deep learning-augmented AMM that achieves similar capital efficiency and loss minimization objectives for practical real-world applications.

Reference-free faithfulness metrics verify each atomic claim a model makes against ground truth, and are increasingly used to evaluate grounded generation. We show they share a blind spot: they measure only precision -- are the stated claims supported? -- and therefore reward abstention, since a model can score near-perfect faithfulness by saying almost nothing. We make this measurable using Formula 1 telemetry, a domain where strategic ground truth is derived deterministically and, crucially, completely: for each decision we know the full set of facts that mattered. This completeness -- absent in open-domain faithfulness benchmarks -- lets us measure recall (coverage of the relevant facts) exactly, alongside precision. On a multilingual (EN/ES/PT) benchmark of 7,253 decision instances spanning 150 races, the most precise frontier model covers under half of the relevant facts and ranks last by F1, so requiring coverage reorders the systems; the same effect reappears in a second complete-oracle domain (NOAA weather forecasts). A prompt ablation shows the low coverage is not an under-prompting artifact: explicitly asking models to be thorough does not close the gap. We pair faithfulness with coverage into a single score, validate the metric (controlled perturbation; agreement across a model-free regex extractor and a cross-family LLM extractor, system-level Spearman 1.0), and give a verifier-guided generation method that improves precision and recall without references. We release the benchmark, structured annotations, metric, baselines, and an interactive demo.

Continual learning, the ability of AI systems to improve through sequential experience, has attracted substantial interest, but no high-quality benchmark exists to evaluate it. We introduce Continual Learning Bench (CL-Bench), the first difficult, expert-validated benchmark designed to measure whether LLM-based systems genuinely improve with experience. CL-Bench spans six diverse domains (software engineering, signal processing, disease outbreak forecasting, database querying, strategic game-playing, and demand forecasting), each validated by domain experts and designed so that tasks share a learnable latent structure (codebase layout, disease outbreak dynamics, opponent strategies) that a stateful system can discover online but a stateless one cannot. We evaluate frontier models across several agent architectures, from naive in-context learning (ICL) to dedicated memory systems, introducing a gain metric to isolate learning from prior capabilities. We find that these systems leave headroom for improved continual learning: agents frequently overfit to immediate observations or fail to reuse knowledge across instances, and dedicated memory systems do not fix this -- in fact, naive ICL outperforms systems dedicated to memory management. CL-Bench is the first benchmark to evaluate continual learning across diverse real-world domains with expert-validated tasks and isolate online learning from underlying model capability, showing a need for better continual learning systems.