Daily Papers

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

At high-energy collider experiments, generative models can be used for a wide range of tasks, including fast detector simulations, unfolding, searches of physics beyond the Standard Model, and inference tasks. In particular, it has been demonstrated that score-based diffusion models can generate high-fidelity and accurate samples of jets or collider events. This work expands on previous generative models in three distinct ways. First, our model is trained to generate entire collider events, including all particle species with complete kinematic information. We quantify how well the model learns event-wide constraints such as the conservation of momentum and discrete quantum numbers. We focus on the events at the future Electron-Ion Collider, but we expect that our results can be extended to proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions. Second, previous generative models often relied on image-based techniques. The sparsity of the data can negatively affect the fidelity and sampling time of the model. We address these issues using point clouds and a novel architecture combining edge creation with transformer modules called Point Edge Transformers. Third, we adapt the foundation model OmniLearn, to generate full collider events. This approach may indicate a transition toward adapting and fine-tuning foundation models for downstream tasks instead of training new models from scratch.

Future collider experiments require unprecedented precision in measurements of Higgs, electroweak, and flavour observables, placing stringent demands on event reconstruction. The achievable precision on Higgs couplings scales directly with the resolution on visible final state particles and their invariant masses. Current particle flow algorithms rely on detector specific clustering, limiting flexibility during detector design. Here we present an end-to-end global event reconstruction approach that maps charged particle tracks and calorimeter and muon hits directly to particle level objects. The method combines geometric algebra transformer networks with object condensation based clustering, followed by dedicated networks for particle identification and energy regression. Our approach is benchmarked on fully simulated electron positron collisions at FCC-ee using the CLD detector concept. It outperforms the state-of-the-art rule-based algorithm by 10--20\% in relative reconstruction efficiency, achieves up to two orders of magnitude reduction in fake-particle rates for charged hadrons, and improves visible energy and invariant mass resolution by 22\%. By decoupling reconstruction performance from detector-specific tuning, this framework enables rapid iteration during the detector design phase of future collider experiments.

We propose masked particle modeling (MPM) as a self-supervised method for learning generic, transferable, and reusable representations on unordered sets of inputs for use in high energy physics (HEP) scientific data. This work provides a novel scheme to perform masked modeling based pre-training to learn permutation invariant functions on sets. More generally, this work provides a step towards building large foundation models for HEP that can be generically pre-trained with self-supervised learning and later fine-tuned for a variety of down-stream tasks. In MPM, particles in a set are masked and the training objective is to recover their identity, as defined by a discretized token representation of a pre-trained vector quantized variational autoencoder. We study the efficacy of the method in samples of high energy jets at collider physics experiments, including studies on the impact of discretization, permutation invariance, and ordering. We also study the fine-tuning capability of the model, showing that it can be adapted to tasks such as supervised and weakly supervised jet classification, and that the model can transfer efficiently with small fine-tuning data sets to new classes and new data domains.

Accurate and efficient detector simulation is essential for modern collider experiments. To reduce the high computational cost, various fast machine learning surrogate models have been proposed. Traditional surrogate models for calorimeter shower modeling train separate networks for each particle species, limiting scalability and reuse. We introduce AllShowers, a unified generative model that simulates calorimeter showers across multiple particle types using a single generative model. AllShowers is a continuous normalizing flow model with a Transformer architecture, enabling it to generate complex spatial and energy correlations in variable-length point cloud representations of showers. Trained on a diverse dataset of simulated showers in the highly granular ILD detector, the model demonstrates the ability to generate realistic showers for electrons, photons, and charged and neutral hadrons across a wide range of incident energies and angles without retraining. In addition to unifying shower generation for multiple particle types, AllShowers surpasses the fidelity of previous single-particle-type models for hadronic showers. Key innovations include the use of a layer embedding, allowing the model to learn all relevant calorimeter layer properties; a custom attention masking scheme to reduce computational demands and introduce a helpful inductive bias; and a shower- and layer-wise optimal transport mapping to improve training convergence and sample quality. AllShowers marks a significant step towards a universal model for calorimeter shower simulations in collider experiments.

We present a transformer architecture-based foundation model for tasks at high-energy particle colliders such as the Large Hadron Collider. We train the model to classify jets using a self-supervised strategy inspired by the Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture. We use the JetClass dataset containing 100M jets of various known particles to pre-train the model with a data-centric approach -- the model uses a fraction of the jet constituents as the context to predict the embeddings of the unseen target constituents. Our pre-trained model fares well with other datasets for standard classification benchmark tasks. We test our model on two additional downstream tasks: top tagging and differentiating light-quark jets from gluon jets. We also evaluate our model with task-specific metrics and baselines and compare it with state-of-the-art models in high-energy physics. Project site: https://hep-jepa.github.io/

A fully differential calculation in perturbative quantum chromodynamics is presented for the production of massive photon pairs at hadron colliders. All next-to-leading order perturbative contributions from quark-antiquark, gluon-(anti)quark, and gluon-gluon subprocesses are included, as well as all-orders resummation of initial-state gluon radiation valid at next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy. The region of phase space is specified in which the calculation is most reliable. Good agreement is demonstrated with data from the Fermilab Tevatron, and predictions are made for more detailed tests with CDF and DO data. Predictions are shown for distributions of diphoton pairs produced at the energy of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Distributions of the diphoton pairs from the decay of a Higgs boson are contrasted with those produced from QCD processes at the LHC, showing that enhanced sensitivity to the signal can be obtained with judicious selection of events.

We present a technique for translating a black-box machine-learned classifier operating on a high-dimensional input space into a small set of human-interpretable observables that can be combined to make the same classification decisions. We iteratively select these observables from a large space of high-level discriminants by finding those with the highest decision similarity relative to the black box, quantified via a metric we introduce that evaluates the relative ordering of pairs of inputs. Successive iterations focus only on the subset of input pairs that are misordered by the current set of observables. This method enables simplification of the machine-learning strategy, interpretation of the results in terms of well-understood physical concepts, validation of the physical model, and the potential for new insights into the nature of the problem itself. As a demonstration, we apply our approach to the benchmark task of jet classification in collider physics, where a convolutional neural network acting on calorimeter jet images outperforms a set of six well-known jet substructure observables. Our method maps the convolutional neural network into a set of observables called energy flow polynomials, and it closes the performance gap by identifying a class of observables with an interesting physical interpretation that has been previously overlooked in the jet substructure literature.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

Foundation models use large datasets to build an effective representation of data that can be deployed on diverse downstream tasks. Previous research developed the OmniLearn foundation model for jet physics, using unique properties of particle physics, and showed that it could significantly advance discovery potential across collider experiments. This paper introduces a major upgrade, resulting in the OmniLearned framework. This framework has three new elements: (1) updates to the model architecture and training, (2) using over one billion jets used for training, and (3) providing well-documented software for accessing all datasets and models. We demonstrate OmniLearned with three representative tasks: top-quark jet tagging with the community Delphes-based benchmark dataset, b-tagging with ATLAS full simulation, and anomaly detection with CMS experimental data. In each case, OmniLearned is the state of the art, further expanding the discovery potential of past, current, and future collider experiments.

We explore a generative machine learning-based approach for estimating multi-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) in a target sample using a statistically independent but related control sample - a common challenge in particle physics data analysis. The generative model must accurately reproduce individual observable distributions while preserving the correlations between them, based on the input multidimensional distribution from the control sample. Here we present a conditional normalizing flow model (CNF) based on a chain of bijectors which learns to transform unpaired simulation events to data events. We assess the performance of the CNF model in the context of LHC Higgs to diphoton analysis, where we use the CNF model to convert a Monte Carlo diphoton sample to one that models data. We show that the CNF model can accurately model complex data distributions and correlations. We also leverage the recently popularized Modified Differential Multiplier Method (MDMM) to improve the convergence of our model and assign physical meaning to usually arbitrary loss-function parameters.

Foundation Models are neural networks that are capable of simultaneously solving many problems. Large Language Foundation Models like ChatGPT have revolutionized many aspects of daily life, but their impact for science is not yet clear. In this paper, we use a new Foundation Model for hadronic jets to solve three key challenges in collider physics. In particular, we show how experiments can (1) save significant computing power when developing reconstruction algorithms, (2) perform a complete uncertainty quantification for high-dimensional measurements, and (3) search for new physics with model agnostic methods using low-level inputs. In each case, there are significant computational or methodological challenges with current methods that limit the science potential of deep learning algorithms. By solving each problem, we take jet Foundation Models beyond proof-of-principle studies and into the toolkit of practitioners.

While deep learning is transforming data analysis in high-energy physics, computational challenges limit its potential. We address these challenges in the context of collider physics by introducing EveNet, an event-level foundation model pretrained on 500 million simulated collision events using a hybrid objective of self-supervised learning and physics-informed supervision. By leveraging a shared particle-cloud representation, EveNet outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across diverse tasks, including searches for heavy resonances and exotic Higgs decays, and demonstrates exceptional data efficiency in low-statistics regimes. Crucially, we validate the transferability of the model to experimental data by rediscovering the Υ meson in CMS Open Data and show its capacity for precision physics through the robust extraction of quantum correlation observables stable against systematic uncertainties. These results indicate that EveNet can successfully encode the fundamental physical structure of particle interactions, which offers a unified and resource-efficient framework to accelerate discovery at current and future colliders.

The rapid data surge from the high-luminosity Large Hadron Collider introduces critical computational challenges requiring novel approaches for efficient data processing in particle physics. Quantum machine learning, with its capability to leverage the extensive Hilbert space of quantum hardware, offers a promising solution. However, current quantum graph neural networks (GNNs) lack robustness to noise and are often constrained by fixed symmetry groups, limiting adaptability in complex particle interaction modeling. This paper demonstrates that replacing the Lorentz Group Equivariant Block modules in LorentzNet with a dressed quantum circuit significantly enhances performance despite using nearly 5.5 times fewer parameters. Additionally, quantum circuits effectively replace MLPs by inherently preserving symmetries, with Lorentz symmetry integration ensuring robust handling of relativistic invariance. Our Lorentz-Equivariant Quantum Graph Neural Network (Lorentz-EQGNN) achieved 74.00% test accuracy and an AUC of 87.38% on the Quark-Gluon jet tagging dataset, outperforming the classical and quantum GNNs with a reduced architecture using only 4 qubits. On the Electron-Photon dataset, Lorentz-EQGNN reached 67.00% test accuracy and an AUC of 68.20%, demonstrating competitive results with just 800 training samples. Evaluation of our model on generic MNIST and FashionMNIST datasets confirmed Lorentz-EQGNN's efficiency, achieving 88.10% and 74.80% test accuracy, respectively. Ablation studies validated the impact of quantum components on performance, with notable improvements in background rejection rates over classical counterparts. These results highlight Lorentz-EQGNN's potential for immediate applications in noise-resilient jet tagging, event classification, and broader data-scarce HEP tasks.

A persistent and fascinating problem at the high energy colliders are jets. Often trying to observe physics underlying the hard interactions at colliders requires experimental cuts in phase space, defining several jet or beam regions. QCD being a gauge theory that readily decays into infra-red modes, correlations between jet regions is almost inevitable, spoiling the predictivity of fixed order QCD calculations. One is faced with the task of calculating the evolution of a reduced density matrix, where successively less energetic (jet) regions are integrated out, to gain control of the calculation. I relate the decay rates governing the flow into the IR to an effective field theory expansion in soft jets, allowing a systematic and resummed calculation of these rates, while further relating them to physically observable features of the QCD cascade. To demonstrate the utility of the soft jet expansion, I present a factorization theorem for a soft subjet collinearly splitting in and out of a parent fat jet. Using the resummation properties of this factorization theorem, I elucidate the structure of the subleading non-global logs (encoding the jet correlations) in the hemisphere jet mass distribution, as well as give a collinear improvement of the leading order resummation equation, the BMS equation. I compare to other approaches to subleading resummation of NGLs, and find the collinear improvement of the leading order equation removes the need for kinematic-dependent corrections in the IR averaging procedure of the reduced density matrix, so that no further large logs can be generated in the IR. Finally I end with speculation about connections with collinear improvements of the NLO B-JIMWLK hierarchy for small-x resummation.

High-throughput scientific facilities such as the Large Hadron Collider depend on real-time event filtering (triggering) under tight constraints on bandwidth, latency, and storage. In practice, trigger menus are largely static and hand-tuned and can become suboptimal as detector conditions, pileup, and background composition drift over time. We cast online threshold tuning as a sequential decision-making problem: a reinforcement learning agent ingests streaming summaries of recent rates and signal-sensitive features and updates trigger thresholds to maximize signal efficiency while tracking a target background rate within a tolerance band. We adapt Group-Filtered Policy Optimization (GFPO) to streaming control and introduce two variants (GFPO-F, GFPO-FR) that enforce background rate feasibility during training. On a benchmark that emulates realistic collider operation, we study two representative triggers: a total transverse energy (H_{T}) trigger sensitive to pileup variation, and an anomaly-detection (AD) trigger based on reconstruction loss for rare or non-standard signatures. On Monte Carlo streams, our agent increases the fraction of in-tolerance time intervals by 48\% (H_T) and 28\% (AD), with a cumulative gain of up to 2\% in signal efficiency on those in-tolerance intervals. Transferring from simulation to real collision data (CMS Run 283408), the same agent, without fine-tuning, achieves a 56\% (H_T) and 28\% (AD) in-tolerance improvement over baselines, with further signal-efficiency gain on both triggers. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of RL-based trigger control on real Large Hadron Collider collision data. Code is available at https://github.com/Zixind/GFPO_LHC (see repo for details).

High-fidelity simulations and complex inverse problems, such as detector modeling and unfolding, are computationally intensive bottlenecks across subatomic physics, yet essential for accurate physical interpretation. While Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) offers a robust acceleration approach, we demonstrate its standard training loss is fundamentally misleading. Specifically, utilizing a Jefferson Lab Nuclear Physics (NP) kinematic dataset (γp to ρ^0 p to π^+π^- p), we expose that CFM loss plateaus prematurely, obscuring ongoing physical refinement. To verify this disconnect is a dataset-agnostic pathology, we introduce ScatterPrism, an efficient generative surrogate evaluated against both the NP data and synthetic stress tests modeling challenging 1D distribution topologies. Coupling these benchmarks, we establish that physics-informed metrics continue improving long after standard loss converges. Consequently, we propose a multi-metric diagnostic protocol to ensure true kinematic fidelity without data memorization. Driven by NP challenges relevant to the forthcoming Electron-Ion Collider (EIC), this unified machinery has strong potential to extend to High-Energy Physics (HEP) applications, such as jet modeling. Furthermore, the framework holds promise for broader domains requiring rigorous generative reliability, including medical imaging, astrophysics, and quantitative finance.

We explore the use of topological data analysis (TDA) combined with machine learning for discriminating standard model backgrounds from the invisible decay of the Z^prime boson associated with monophoton emission at a 3 TeV muon collider. Reconstructed events are mapped into a six-dimensional kinematic space and aggregated into bags of events, from which persistent homology is used to extract Betti number distributions. Within the Multiple Instance Learning paradigm, classifiers trained on these topological descriptors demonstrate significantly improved classification accuracy compared to the conventional ML approaches based on event-wise kinematic inputs. We also draw exclusion contours at 95\% CL in the (m_{Z^prime}, m_chi) parameter space, highlighting the potential of topological features to extend the discovery reach of future collider experiments.

Particle tracking is crucial for almost all physics analysis programs at the Large Hadron Collider. Deep learning models are pervasively used in particle tracking related tasks. However, the current practice is to design and train one deep learning model for one task with supervised learning techniques. The trained models work well for tasks they are trained on but show no or little generalization capabilities. We propose to unify these models with a language model. In this paper, we present a tokenized detector representation that allows us to train a BERT model for particle tracking. The trained BERT model, namely TrackingBERT, offers latent detector module embedding that can be used for other tasks. This work represents the first step towards developing a foundational model for particle detector understanding.

Regression, the task of predicting a continuous scalar target y based on some features x is one of the most fundamental tasks in machine learning and statistics. It has been observed and theoretically analyzed that the classical approach, meansquared error minimization, can lead to suboptimal results when training neural networks. In this work, we propose a new method to improve the training of these models on regression tasks, with continuous scalar targets. Our method is based on casting this task in a different fashion, using a target encoder, and a prediction decoder, inspired by approaches in classification and clustering. We showcase the performance of our method on a wide range of real-world datasets.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

In this work, we present a new approach for fast tracking on multiwire proportional chambers with neural networks. The tracking networks are developed and adapted for the first-level trigger at hadron collider experiments. We use Monte Carlo samples generated by Geant4 with a custom muon chamber, which resembles part of the thin gap chambers from the ATLAS experiment, for training and performance evaluations. The chamber has a total of seven gas gaps, where the first and last gas gaps are displaced by ~1.5 m. Each gas gap has 50 channels with a size of 18-20 mm. Two neural network models are developed and presented: a convolutional neural network and a neural network optimized for the detector configuration of this study. In the latter network, a convolution layer is provided for each of three groups formed from 2-3 gas gaps of the chamber, and the outputs are fed into multilayer perceptrons in sequence. Both networks are transformed into hardware description language and implemented in Virtex UltraScale+ FPGA. The angular resolution is 2 mrad, which is comparable to the maximum resolution of the detector estimated by the minimum chi2 method. The latency achieved by the implemented firmware is less than 100 ns, and the throughput rate is 160 MHz.

Strongly lensed variable quasars can serve as precise cosmological probes, provided that time delays between the image fluxes can be accurately measured. A number of methods have been proposed to address this problem. In this paper, we explore in detail a new approach based on kernel regression estimates, which is able to estimate a single time delay given several datasets for the same quasar. We develop realistic artificial data sets in order to carry out controlled experiments to test of performance of this new approach. We also test our method on real data from strongly lensed quasar Q0957+561 and compare our estimates against existing results.

In high energy physics, self-supervised learning (SSL) methods have the potential to aid in the creation of machine learning models without the need for labeled datasets for a variety of tasks, including those related to jets -- narrow sprays of particles produced by quarks and gluons in high energy particle collisions. This study introduces an approach to learning jet representations without hand-crafted augmentations using a jet-based joint embedding predictive architecture (J-JEPA), which aims to predict various physical targets from an informative context. As our method does not require hand-crafted augmentation like other common SSL techniques, J-JEPA avoids introducing biases that could harm downstream tasks. Since different tasks generally require invariance under different augmentations, this training without hand-crafted augmentation enables versatile applications, offering a pathway toward a cross-task foundation model. We finetune the representations learned by J-JEPA for jet tagging and benchmark them against task-specific representations.

Neural field methods have seen great progress in various long-standing tasks in computer vision and computer graphics, including novel view synthesis and geometry reconstruction. As existing neural field methods try to predict some coordinate-based continuous target values, such as RGB for Neural Radiance Field (NeRF), all of these methods are regression models and are optimized by some regression loss. However, are regression models really better than classification models for neural field methods? In this work, we try to visit this very fundamental but overlooked question for neural fields from a machine learning perspective. We successfully propose a novel Neural Field Classifier (NFC) framework which formulates existing neural field methods as classification tasks rather than regression tasks. The proposed NFC can easily transform arbitrary Neural Field Regressor (NFR) into its classification variant via employing a novel Target Encoding module and optimizing a classification loss. By encoding a continuous regression target into a high-dimensional discrete encoding, we naturally formulate a multi-label classification task. Extensive experiments demonstrate the impressive effectiveness of NFC at the nearly free extra computational costs. Moreover, NFC also shows robustness to sparse inputs, corrupted images, and dynamic scenes.

Classical deep neural networks can learn rich multi-particle correlations in collider data, but their inductive biases are rarely anchored in physics structure. We propose quantum-informed neural networks (QINNs), a general framework that brings quantum information concepts and quantum observables into purely classical models. While the framework is broad, in this paper, we study one concrete realisation that encodes each particle as a qubit and uses the Quantum Fisher Information Matrix (QFIM) as a compact, basis-independent summary of particle correlations. Using jet tagging as a case study, QFIMs act as lightweight embeddings in graph neural networks, increasing model expressivity and plasticity. The QFIM reveals distinct patterns for QCD and hadronic top jets that align with physical expectations. Thus, QINNs offer a practical, interpretable, and scalable route to quantum-informed analyses, that is, tomography, of particle collisions, particularly by enhancing well-established deep learning approaches.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

In this work, we significantly enhance masked particle modeling (MPM), a self-supervised learning scheme for constructing highly expressive representations of unordered sets relevant to developing foundation models for high-energy physics. In MPM, a model is trained to recover the missing elements of a set, a learning objective that requires no labels and can be applied directly to experimental data. We achieve significant performance improvements over previous work on MPM by addressing inefficiencies in the implementation and incorporating a more powerful decoder. We compare several pre-training tasks and introduce new reconstruction methods that utilize conditional generative models without data tokenization or discretization. We show that these new methods outperform the tokenized learning objective from the original MPM on a new test bed for foundation models for jets, which includes using a wide variety of downstream tasks relevant to jet physics, such as classification, secondary vertex finding, and track identification.

Machine learning has emerged as a powerful solution to the modern challenges in accelerator physics. However, the limited availability of beam time, the computational cost of simulations, and the high-dimensionality of optimisation problems pose significant challenges in generating the required data for training state-of-the-art machine learning models. In this work, we introduce Cheetah, a PyTorch-based high-speed differentiable linear-beam dynamics code. Cheetah enables the fast collection of large data sets by reducing computation times by multiple orders of magnitude and facilitates efficient gradient-based optimisation for accelerator tuning and system identification. This positions Cheetah as a user-friendly, readily extensible tool that integrates seamlessly with widely adopted machine learning tools. We showcase the utility of Cheetah through five examples, including reinforcement learning training, gradient-based beamline tuning, gradient-based system identification, physics-informed Bayesian optimisation priors, and modular neural network surrogate modelling of space charge effects. The use of such a high-speed differentiable simulation code will simplify the development of machine learning-based methods for particle accelerators and fast-track their integration into everyday operations of accelerator facilities.

This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.

In this work we demonstrate that significant gains in performance and data efficiency can be achieved in High Energy Physics (HEP) by moving beyond the standard paradigm of sequential optimization or reconstruction and analysis components. We conceptually connect HEP reconstruction and analysis to modern machine learning workflows such as pretraining, finetuning, domain adaptation and high-dimensional embedding spaces and quantify the gains in the example usecase of searches of heavy resonances decaying via an intermediate di-Higgs system to four b-jets.

Decoding-based regression, which reformulates regression as a sequence generation task, has emerged as a promising paradigm of applying large language models for numerical prediction. However, its progress is hindered by the misalignment between discrete token-level objectives (e.g., cross-entropy) and continuous numerical values. Existing approaches relying on token-level constraints often fail to capture the global magnitude of the target value, limiting their precision and generalization. In this paper, we propose to unlock the potential of decoding-based regression via Reinforcement Learning (RL). We formulate the generation process as a Markov Decision Process, utilizing sequence-level rewards to enforce global numerical coherence. Extensive experiments on tabular regression and code metric regression demonstrate that our method (specifically with ReMax and GRPO) consistently outperforms both state-of-the-art token-level baselines and traditional regression heads, showing the superiority of introducing sequence-level signals. Our analysis further reveals that RL significantly enhances sampling efficiency and predictive precision, establishing decoding-based regression as a robust and accurate paradigm for general-purpose numerical prediction.

With the rise of large language models (LLMs) for flexibly processing information as strings, a natural application is regression, specifically by preprocessing string representations into LLM embeddings as downstream features for metric prediction. In this paper, we provide one of the first comprehensive investigations into embedding-based regression and demonstrate that LLM embeddings as features can be better for high-dimensional regression tasks than using traditional feature engineering. This regression performance can be explained in part due to LLM embeddings over numeric data inherently preserving Lipschitz continuity over the feature space. Furthermore, we quantify the contribution of different model effects, most notably model size and language understanding, which we find surprisingly do not always improve regression performance.

In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional outcome distribution, and (ii) a multi-basis measurement setting that concatenates measurement probabilities in different bases (Z, X, Y) into a twelve-dimensional output space. By combining a multioutput regression model (e.g., random forests) with distributional conformal prediction, we validate coverage and interval-set sizes on both simulated quantum data and multi-basis measurement data. Our results confirm that classical conformal prediction can effectively provide coverage guarantees even when the target probabilities derive from inherently quantum processes. Such synergy opens the door to next-generation quantum-classical hybrid frameworks, providing both improved interpretability and rigorous coverage for quantum machine learning tasks. All codes and full reproducible Colab notebooks are made available at https://github.com/detasar/QECMMOU.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

This research employs quantitative techniques interpreted through relevant economic theories to analyze a proposed U.S. "Discounted Reciprocal Tariff" structure. Statistical modeling (linear regression) quantifies the policy's consistent 'discounted reciprocity' pattern, which is interpreted using a Game Theory perspective on strategic interaction. Machine learning (K-Means clustering) identifies distinct country typologies based on tariff exposure and Economic Complexity Index (ECI), linking the policy to Economic Complexity theory. The study's primary application focuses on the major coffee exporting sector, utilizing simulation modeling grounded in principles of demand elasticity and substitution to project potential trade flow impacts. Specifically, for coffee, this simulation demonstrates how the proposed tariff differentials can induce significant substitution effects, projecting a potential shift in U.S. import demand away from high-tariff origins toward lower-tariff competitors. This disruption, stemming from the tariffs impacting exporting countries, is projected to ultimately increase coffee prices for consumers in the United States. Findings throughout are contextualized within Political Economy considerations. Overall, the study demonstrates how integrating regression, clustering, and simulation with economic theory exemplified through the coffee sector analysis provides a robust framework for assessing the potential systemic impacts, including consumer price effects, of strategic trade policies.

We here propose a machine learning approach for monitoring particle detectors in real-time. The goal is to assess the compatibility of incoming experimental data with a reference dataset, characterising the data behaviour under normal circumstances, via a likelihood-ratio hypothesis test. The model is based on a modern implementation of kernel methods, nonparametric algorithms that can learn any continuous function given enough data. The resulting approach is efficient and agnostic to the type of anomaly that may be present in the data. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of this strategy on multivariate data from drift tube chamber muon detectors.

Physics education researchers (PER) often analyze student data with single-level regression models (e.g., linear and logistic regression). However, education datasets can have hierarchical structures, such as students nested within courses, that single-level models fail to account for. The improper use of single-level models to analyze hierarchical datasets can lead to biased findings. Hierarchical models (a.k.a., multi-level models) account for this hierarchical nested structure in the data. In this publication, we outline the theoretical differences between how single-level and multi-level models handle hierarchical datasets. We then present analysis of a dataset from 112 introductory physics courses using both multiple linear regression and hierarchical linear modeling to illustrate the potential impact of using an inappropriate analytical method on PER findings and implications. Research can leverage multi-institutional datasets to improve the field's understanding of how to support student success in physics. There is no post hoc fix, however, if researchers use inappropriate single-level models to analyze multi-level datasets. To continue developing reliable and generalizable knowledge, PER should use hierarchical models when analyzing hierarchical datasets. The supplemental materials include a sample dataset, R code to model the building and analysis presented in the paper, and an HTML output from the R code.

Symbolic equations are at the core of scientific discovery. The task of discovering the underlying equation from a set of input-output pairs is called symbolic regression. Traditionally, symbolic regression methods use hand-designed strategies that do not improve with experience. In this paper, we introduce the first symbolic regression method that leverages large scale pre-training. We procedurally generate an unbounded set of equations, and simultaneously pre-train a Transformer to predict the symbolic equation from a corresponding set of input-output-pairs. At test time, we query the model on a new set of points and use its output to guide the search for the equation. We show empirically that this approach can re-discover a set of well-known physical equations, and that it improves over time with more data and compute.

The limited availability and accuracy of simulated data has motivated the use of foundation models in high energy physics, with the idea to first train a task-agnostic model on large and potentially unlabeled datasets. This enables the subsequent fine-tuning of the learned representation for specific downstream tasks, potentially requiring much smaller dataset sizes to reach the performance of models trained from scratch. We study how OmniJet-α, one of the proposed foundation models for particle jets, can be used on a new set of tasks, and in a new dataset, in order to reconstruct hadronically decaying τ leptons. We show that the pretraining can successfully be utilized for this multi-task problem, improving the resolution of momentum reconstruction by about 50\% when the pretrained weights are fine-tuned, compared to training the model from scratch. While much work remains ahead to develop generic foundation models for high-energy physics, this early result of generalizing an existing model to a new dataset and to previously unconsidered tasks highlights the importance of testing the approaches on a diverse set of datasets and tasks.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Rapid advancement of machine learning solutions has often coincided with the production of a test public data set. Such datasets reduce the largest barrier to entry for tackling a problem -- procuring data -- while also providing a benchmark to compare different solutions. Furthermore, large datasets have been used to train high-performing feature finders which are then used in new approaches to problems beyond that initially defined. In order to encourage the rapid development in the analysis of data collected using liquid argon time projection chambers, a class of particle detectors used in high energy physics experiments, we have produced the PILArNet, first 2D and 3D open dataset to be used for a couple of key analysis tasks. The initial dataset presented in this paper contains 300,000 samples simulated and recorded in three different volume sizes. The dataset is stored efficiently in sparse 2D and 3D matrix format with auxiliary information about simulated particles in the volume, and is made available for public research use. In this paper we describe the dataset, tasks, and the method used to procure the sample.

Neural multivariate regression underpins a wide range of domains such as control, robotics, and finance, yet the geometry of its learned representations remains poorly characterized. While neural collapse has been shown to benefit generalization in classification, we find that analogous collapse in regression consistently degrades performance. To explain this contrast, we analyze models through the lens of intrinsic dimension. Across control tasks and synthetic datasets, we estimate the intrinsic dimension of last-layer features (ID_H) and compare it with that of the regression targets (ID_Y). Collapsed models exhibit ID_H < ID_Y, leading to over-compression and poor generalization, whereas non-collapsed models typically maintain ID_H > ID_Y. For the non-collapsed models, performance with respect to ID_H depends on the data quantity and noise levels. From these observations, we identify two regimes (over-compressed and under-compressed) that determine when expanding or reducing feature dimensionality improves performance. Our results provide new geometric insights into neural regression and suggest practical strategies for enhancing generalization.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Scaling laws predict loss from compute but not how capabilities interact. We measure the coupling between reasoning and truthfulness across 63 base models from 16 families and find a regime change invisible to loss curves: below a family-dependent critical scale N_c, capabilities anticorrelate; above it, they cooperate. N_c approx 3.5B parameters [2.9B, 13.4B] (bootstrap 95% CI), but model size is not the only variable that determines phase. Architecture, data curation, and training recipe each shift N_c independently: curated training eliminated the coupling dip between Qwen generations (0.025 to 0.830 at matched scale), Gemma-4 at 4B achieves coupling 0.871, characteristic of 13B+ standard-trained models, through distillation and architectural innovation, and Phi at 1B matches web-trained coupling at 10B through data curation alone. Width normalization eliminates the anticorrelation across all tested families, supporting an output-projection bottleneck. Internally, 38 of 40 models show zero competing attention heads. A sparse-regression ODE cross-predicts held-out Llama-2 at 5.6% error. The diagnostic requires no model internals -- only public benchmark scores across a model family. The cooperative regime extends to the frontier (r = +0.72, 34 models, 10 labs). Code, data, and an open-source activation-steering tool for any open-weight model are released alongside an interactive dashboard that diagnoses any model's coupling phase, suggests concrete interventions (data curation, width, benchmark rotation), and provides ODE scaling predictions, frontier diagnostics, and eigenstructure analysis: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

Deep regression models typically learn in an end-to-end fashion without explicitly emphasizing a regression-aware representation. Consequently, the learned representations exhibit fragmentation and fail to capture the continuous nature of sample orders, inducing suboptimal results across a wide range of regression tasks. To fill the gap, we propose Rank-N-Contrast (RNC), a framework that learns continuous representations for regression by contrasting samples against each other based on their rankings in the target space. We demonstrate, theoretically and empirically, that RNC guarantees the desired order of learned representations in accordance with the target orders, enjoying not only better performance but also significantly improved robustness, efficiency, and generalization. Extensive experiments using five real-world regression datasets that span computer vision, human-computer interaction, and healthcare verify that RNC achieves state-of-the-art performance, highlighting its intriguing properties including better data efficiency, robustness to spurious targets and data corruptions, and generalization to distribution shifts. Code is available at: https://github.com/kaiwenzha/Rank-N-Contrast.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a powerful technique for discovering the underlying mathematical expressions from observed data. Inspired by the success of deep learning, recent efforts have focused on two categories for SR methods. One is using a neural network or genetic programming to search the expression tree directly. Although this has shown promising results, the large search space poses difficulties in learning constant factors and processing high-dimensional problems. Another approach is leveraging a transformer-based model training on synthetic data and offers advantages in inference speed. However, this method is limited to fixed small numbers of dimensions and may encounter inference problems when given data is out-of-distribution compared to the synthetic data. In this work, we propose DySymNet, a novel neural-guided Dynamic Symbolic Network for SR. Instead of searching for expressions within a large search space, we explore DySymNet with various structures and optimize them to identify expressions that better-fitting the data. With a topology structure like neural networks, DySymNet not only tackles the challenge of high-dimensional problems but also proves effective in optimizing constants. Based on extensive numerical experiments using low-dimensional public standard benchmarks and the well-known SRBench with more variables, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of fitting accuracy and robustness to noise.

Despite significant progress of generative models in the natural sciences, their controllability remains challenging. One fundamentally missing aspect of molecular or protein generative models is an inductive bias that can reflect continuous properties of interest. To that end, we propose the Regression Transformer (RT), a novel method that abstracts regression as a conditional sequence modeling problem. This introduces a new paradigm of multitask language models which seamlessly bridge sequence regression and conditional sequence generation. We thoroughly demonstrate that, despite using a nominal-scale training objective, the RT matches or surpasses the performance of conventional regression models in property prediction tasks of small molecules, proteins and chemical reactions. Critically, priming the same model with continuous properties yields a highly competitive conditional generative model that outperforms specialized approaches in a substructure-constrained, property-driven molecule generation benchmark. Our dichotomous approach is facilitated by a novel, alternating training scheme that enables the model to decorate seed sequences by desired properties, e.g., to optimize reaction yield. In sum, the RT is the first report of a multitask model that concurrently excels at predictive and generative tasks in biochemistry. This finds particular application in property-driven, local exploration of the chemical or protein space and could pave the road toward foundation models in material design. The code to reproduce all experiments of the paper is available at: https://github.com/IBM/regression-transformer

Using two benchmark models containing extended scalar sectors beyond the Standard Model, we study deep learning techniques to enhance the sensitivity of resonant triple Higgs boson searches in the fully hadronic 6b channel, which suffers from the combinatorial challenge of reconstructing the Higgs bosons correctly from the multiple b-jets. More specifically, we employ the framework of Symmetry Preserving Attention Network (Spa-Net), which takes into account the permutational symmetry when a correct pairing of b-jets is achieved, to tackle both jet pairing and event classification. Significantly improved efficiency is achieved in signal and background discrimination. When comparing with the conventional Dense Neural Networks, Spa-Net results in up to 40\% more stringent limits on resonant production cross-sections. These results highlight the potential of using advanced machine learning techniques to significantly improve the sensitivity of triple Higgs boson searches in the fully hadronic channel.

Regression models are crucial in recommender systems. However, retransformation bias problem has been conspicuously neglected within the community. While many works in other fields have devised effective bias correction methods, all of them are post-hoc cures externally to the model, facing practical challenges when applied to real-world recommender systems. Hence, we propose a preemptive paradigm to eradicate the bias intrinsically from the models via minor model refinement. Specifically, a novel TranSUN method is proposed with a joint bias learning manner to offer theoretically guaranteed unbiasedness under empirical superior convergence. It is further generalized into a novel generic regression model family, termed Generalized TranSUN (GTS), which not only offers more theoretical insights but also serves as a generic framework for flexibly developing various bias-free models. Comprehensive experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our methods across data from various domains, which have been successfully deployed in two real-world industrial recommendation scenarios, i.e. product and short video recommendation scenarios in Guess What You Like business domain in the homepage of Taobao App (a leading e-commerce platform with DAU > 300M), to serve the major online traffic.

Identifying and reconstructing hadronic τ decays (τ_{h}) is an important task at current and future high-energy physics experiments, as τ_{h} represent an important tool to analyze the production of Higgs and electroweak bosons as well as to search for physics beyond the Standard Model. The identification of τ_{h} can be viewed as a generalization and extension of jet-flavour tagging, which has in the recent years undergone significant progress due to the use of deep learning. Based on a granular simulation with realistic detector effects and a particle flow-based event reconstruction, we show in this paper that deep learning-based jet-flavour-tagging algorithms are powerful τ_{h} identifiers. Specifically, we show that jet-flavour-tagging algorithms such as LorentzNet and ParticleTransformer can be adapted in an end-to-end fashion for discriminating τ_{h} from quark and gluon jets. We find that the end-to-end transformer-based approach significantly outperforms contemporary state-of-the-art τ_{h} reconstruction and identification algorithms currently in use at the Large Hadron Collider.

Energy-energy correlators are constructed by averaging the number of charged particle pairs within jets, weighted by the product of their transverse momenta, as a function of the angular separation of the particles within a pair. They are sensitive to a multitude of perturbative and nonperturbative quantum chromodynamics phenomena in high-energy particle collisions. Using lead-lead data recorded with the CMS detector, energy-energy correlators inside high transverse momentum jets are measured in heavy ion collisions for the first time. The data are obtained at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 1.70 nb^{-1}. A similar analysis is done for proton-proton collisions at the same center-of-mass energy to establish a reference. The ratio of lead-lead to proton-proton energy-energy correlators reveals significant jet substructure modifications in the quark-gluon plasma. The results are compared to different models that incorporate either color coherence or medium response effects, where the two effects predict similar substructure modifications.

This paper reports on the second "Throughput" phase of the Tracking Machine Learning (TrackML) challenge on the Codalab platform. As in the first "Accuracy" phase, the participants had to solve a difficult experimental problem linked to tracking accurately the trajectory of particles as e.g. created at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC): given O(10^5) points, the participants had to connect them into O(10^4) individual groups that represent the particle trajectories which are approximated helical. While in the first phase only the accuracy mattered, the goal of this second phase was a compromise between the accuracy and the speed of inference. Both were measured on the Codalab platform where the participants had to upload their software. The best three participants had solutions with good accuracy and speed an order of magnitude faster than the state of the art when the challenge was designed. Although the core algorithms were less diverse than in the first phase, a diversity of techniques have been used and are described in this paper. The performance of the algorithms are analysed in depth and lessons derived.

In our era of enormous neural networks, empirical progress has been driven by the philosophy that more is better. Recent deep learning practice has found repeatedly that larger model size, more data, and more computation (resulting in lower training loss) improves performance. In this paper, we give theoretical backing to these empirical observations by showing that these three properties hold in random feature (RF) regression, a class of models equivalent to shallow networks with only the last layer trained. Concretely, we first show that the test risk of RF regression decreases monotonically with both the number of features and the number of samples, provided the ridge penalty is tuned optimally. In particular, this implies that infinite width RF architectures are preferable to those of any finite width. We then proceed to demonstrate that, for a large class of tasks characterized by powerlaw eigenstructure, training to near-zero training loss is obligatory: near-optimal performance can only be achieved when the training error is much smaller than the test error. Grounding our theory in real-world data, we find empirically that standard computer vision tasks with convolutional neural tangent kernels clearly fall into this class. Taken together, our results tell a simple, testable story of the benefits of overparameterization, overfitting, and more data in random feature models.

Neural sequence models, especially transformers, exhibit a remarkable capacity for in-context learning. They can construct new predictors from sequences of labeled examples (x, f(x)) presented in the input without further parameter updates. We investigate the hypothesis that transformer-based in-context learners implement standard learning algorithms implicitly, by encoding smaller models in their activations, and updating these implicit models as new examples appear in the context. Using linear regression as a prototypical problem, we offer three sources of evidence for this hypothesis. First, we prove by construction that transformers can implement learning algorithms for linear models based on gradient descent and closed-form ridge regression. Second, we show that trained in-context learners closely match the predictors computed by gradient descent, ridge regression, and exact least-squares regression, transitioning between different predictors as transformer depth and dataset noise vary, and converging to Bayesian estimators for large widths and depths. Third, we present preliminary evidence that in-context learners share algorithmic features with these predictors: learners' late layers non-linearly encode weight vectors and moment matrices. These results suggest that in-context learning is understandable in algorithmic terms, and that (at least in the linear case) learners may rediscover standard estimation algorithms. Code and reference implementations are released at https://github.com/ekinakyurek/google-research/blob/master/incontext.

In this paper, we present a regression-based pose recognition method using cascade Transformers. One way to categorize the existing approaches in this domain is to separate them into 1). heatmap-based and 2). regression-based. In general, heatmap-based methods achieve higher accuracy but are subject to various heuristic designs (not end-to-end mostly), whereas regression-based approaches attain relatively lower accuracy but they have less intermediate non-differentiable steps. Here we utilize the encoder-decoder structure in Transformers to perform regression-based person and keypoint detection that is general-purpose and requires less heuristic design compared with the existing approaches. We demonstrate the keypoint hypothesis (query) refinement process across different self-attention layers to reveal the recursive self-attention mechanism in Transformers. In the experiments, we report competitive results for pose recognition when compared with the competing regression-based methods.

We introduce a foundation model for event classification in high-energy physics, built on a Graph Neural Network architecture and trained on 120 million simulated proton-proton collision events spanning 12 distinct physics processes. The model is pretrained to learn a general and robust representation of collision data using challenging multiclass and multilabel classification tasks. Its performance is evaluated across seven event classification tasks, which include new physics processes not encountered during pretraining as well as ATLAS Open Data to demonstrate generalizability across different simulation frameworks, from Delphes fast simulation to full ATLAS detector simulation. Fine-tuning the pretrained model significantly improves classification performance, particularly in scenarios with limited training data, demonstrating gains in both accuracy and computational efficiency. To investigate the underlying mechanisms behind these performance improvements, we employ a representational similarity evaluation framework based on Centered Kernel Alignment. This analysis reveals that encoder-stage representations of the fine-tuned model remain similar to those of the baseline, while intermediate graph processing layers diverge substantially, indicating that fine-tuning preserves general-purpose encoders while developing fundamentally different message-passing pathways to arrive at superior task performance.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

We present a novel method for symbolic regression (SR), the task of searching for compact programmatic hypotheses that best explain a dataset. The problem is commonly solved using genetic algorithms; we show that we can enhance such methods by inducing a library of abstract textual concepts. Our algorithm, called LaSR, uses zero-shot queries to a large language model (LLM) to discover and evolve concepts occurring in known high-performing hypotheses. We discover new hypotheses using a mix of standard evolutionary steps and LLM-guided steps (obtained through zero-shot LLM queries) conditioned on discovered concepts. Once discovered, hypotheses are used in a new round of concept abstraction and evolution. We validate LaSR on the Feynman equations, a popular SR benchmark, as well as a set of synthetic tasks. On these benchmarks, LaSR substantially outperforms a variety of state-of-the-art SR approaches based on deep learning and evolutionary algorithms. Moreover, we show that LaSR can be used to discover a novel and powerful scaling law for LLMs.

Behavior of deep neural networks can be inconsistent between different versions. Regressions during model update are a common cause of concern that often over-weigh the benefits in accuracy or efficiency gain. This work focuses on quantifying, reducing and analyzing regression errors in the NLP model updates. Using negative flip rate as regression measure, we show that regression has a prevalent presence across tasks in the GLUE benchmark. We formulate the regression-free model updates into a constrained optimization problem, and further reduce it into a relaxed form which can be approximately optimized through knowledge distillation training method. We empirically analyze how model ensemble reduces regression. Finally, we conduct CheckList behavioral testing to understand the distribution of regressions across linguistic phenomena, and the efficacy of ensemble and distillation methods.

We present 3DRegNet, a novel deep learning architecture for the registration of 3D scans. Given a set of 3D point correspondences, we build a deep neural network to address the following two challenges: (i) classification of the point correspondences into inliers/outliers, and (ii) regression of the motion parameters that align the scans into a common reference frame. With regard to regression, we present two alternative approaches: (i) a Deep Neural Network (DNN) registration and (ii) a Procrustes approach using SVD to estimate the transformation. Our correspondence-based approach achieves a higher speedup compared to competing baselines. We further propose the use of a refinement network, which consists of a smaller 3DRegNet as a refinement to improve the accuracy of the registration. Extensive experiments on two challenging datasets demonstrate that we outperform other methods and achieve state-of-the-art results. The code is available.

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model prediction from real prices is simpler comparing to price time series. It is assumed that this pattern can be predicted by an experienced expert. In such a way, using the combination of the regression model and expert correction, one can receive better results than with either regression model or expert opinion only. It is shown that Bayesian approach makes it possible to utilize the probabilistic approach using distributions with fat tails and take into account the outliers in Bitcoin price time series.

Combinatorial inverse problems in high energy physics span enormous algorithmic challenges. This work presents a new deep learning driven clustering algorithm that utilizes a space-time non-local trainable graph constructor, a graph neural network, and a set transformer. The model is trained with loss functions at the graph node, edge and object level, including contrastive learning and meta-supervision. The algorithm can be applied to problems such as charged particle tracking, calorimetry, pile-up discrimination, jet physics, and beyond. We showcase the effectiveness of this cutting-edge AI approach through particle tracking simulations. The code is available online.

We derive the discovery potential of a leptophilic Z', and a Z' rising from a SU(3) times SU(3)_L times U(1)_N symmetry at the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC), which is planned to host e^+e^- collisions with 3 TeV center-of-mass energy. We perform an optimized selection cut strategy on the transverse momentum, pseudorapidity, and invariant mass of the dileptons in order to enhance the collider sensitivity. We find that CLIC can potentially reach a 5sigma signal of a 1-3~TeV leptophilic Z' with less than 1fb^{-1} of integrated luminosity. As for the Z' belonging to a 3-3-1 symmetry, CLIC will offer a complementary probe with the potential to impose M_{Z^prime} > 3~TeV with L=2fb^{-1}.

Pixel-wise regression is probably the most common problem in fine-grained computer vision tasks, such as estimating keypoint heatmaps and segmentation masks. These regression problems are very challenging particularly because they require, at low computation overheads, modeling long-range dependencies on high-resolution inputs/outputs to estimate the highly nonlinear pixel-wise semantics. While attention mechanisms in Deep Convolutional Neural Networks(DCNNs) has become popular for boosting long-range dependencies, element-specific attention, such as Nonlocal blocks, is highly complex and noise-sensitive to learn, and most of simplified attention hybrids try to reach the best compromise among multiple types of tasks. In this paper, we present the Polarized Self-Attention(PSA) block that incorporates two critical designs towards high-quality pixel-wise regression: (1) Polarized filtering: keeping high internal resolution in both channel and spatial attention computation while completely collapsing input tensors along their counterpart dimensions. (2) Enhancement: composing non-linearity that directly fits the output distribution of typical fine-grained regression, such as the 2D Gaussian distribution (keypoint heatmaps), or the 2D Binormial distribution (binary segmentation masks). PSA appears to have exhausted the representation capacity within its channel-only and spatial-only branches, such that there is only marginal metric differences between its sequential and parallel layouts. Experimental results show that PSA boosts standard baselines by 2-4 points, and boosts state-of-the-arts by 1-2 points on 2D pose estimation and semantic segmentation benchmarks.

The superconducting linear accelerator is a highly flexiable facility for modern scientific discoveries, necessitating weekly reconfiguration and tuning. Accordingly, minimizing setup time proves essential in affording users with ample experimental time. We propose a trend-based soft actor-critic(TBSAC) beam control method with strong robustness, allowing the agents to be trained in a simulated environment and applied to the real accelerator directly with zero-shot. To validate the effectiveness of our method, two different typical beam control tasks were performed on China Accelerator Facility for Superheavy Elements (CAFe II) and a light particle injector(LPI) respectively. The orbit correction tasks were performed in three cryomodules in CAFe II seperately, the time required for tuning has been reduced to one-tenth of that needed by human experts, and the RMS values of the corrected orbit were all less than 1mm. The other transmission efficiency optimization task was conducted in the LPI, our agent successfully optimized the transmission efficiency of radio-frequency quadrupole(RFQ) to over 85% within 2 minutes. The outcomes of these two experiments offer substantiation that our proposed TBSAC approach can efficiently and effectively accomplish beam commissioning tasks while upholding the same standard as skilled human experts. As such, our method exhibits potential for future applications in other accelerator commissioning fields.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

With the introduction of data protection and privacy regulations, it has become crucial to remove the lineage of data on demand from a machine learning (ML) model. In the last few years, there have been notable developments in machine unlearning to remove the information of certain training data efficiently and effectively from ML models. In this work, we explore unlearning for the regression problem, particularly in deep learning models. Unlearning in classification and simple linear regression has been considerably investigated. However, unlearning in deep regression models largely remains an untouched problem till now. In this work, we introduce deep regression unlearning methods that generalize well and are robust to privacy attacks. We propose the Blindspot unlearning method which uses a novel weight optimization process. A randomly initialized model, partially exposed to the retain samples and a copy of the original model are used together to selectively imprint knowledge about the data that we wish to keep and scrub off the information of the data we wish to forget. We also propose a Gaussian fine tuning method for regression unlearning. The existing unlearning metrics for classification are not directly applicable to regression unlearning. Therefore, we adapt these metrics for the regression setting. We conduct regression unlearning experiments for computer vision, natural language processing and forecasting applications. Our methods show excellent performance for all these datasets across all the metrics. Source code: https://github.com/ayu987/deep-regression-unlearning

Our knowledge of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and their relation to their host galaxies is still limited, and there are only around 150 SMBHs that have their masses directly measured and confirmed. Better black hole mass scaling relations will help us reveal the physics of black holes, as well as predict black hole masses that are not yet measured. Here, we apply symbolic regression, combined with random forest to those directly-measured black hole masses and host galaxy properties, and find a collection of higher-dimensional (N-D) black hole mass scaling relations. These N-D black hole mass scaling relations have scatter smaller than any of the existing black hole mass scaling relations. One of the best among them involves the parameters of central stellar velocity dispersion, bulge-to-total ratio, and density at the black hole's sphere-of-influence with an intrinsic scatter of epsilon=0.083, dex, significantly lower than epsilon sim 0.3, dex for the M-sigma relation. These relations will inspire black hole physics, test black hole models implemented in simulations, and estimate unknown black hole masses on an unprecedented precision.

Radiotherapy often involves a prolonged treatment period. During this time, patients may experience organ motion due to breathing and other physiological factors. Predicting and modeling this motion before treatment is crucial for ensuring precise radiation delivery. However, existing pre-treatment organ motion prediction methods primarily rely on deformation analysis using principal component analysis (PCA), which is highly dependent on registration quality and struggles to capture periodic temporal dynamics for motion modeling.In this paper, we observe that organ motion prediction closely resembles an autoregressive process, a technique widely used in natural language processing (NLP). Autoregressive models predict the next token based on previous inputs, naturally aligning with our objective of predicting future organ motion phases. Building on this insight, we reformulate organ motion prediction as an autoregressive process to better capture patient-specific motion patterns. Specifically, we acquire 4D CT scans for each patient before treatment, with each sequence comprising multiple 3D CT phases. These phases are fed into the autoregressive model to predict future phases based on prior phase motion patterns. We evaluate our method on a real-world test set of 4D CT scans from 50 patients who underwent radiotherapy at our institution and a public dataset containing 4D CT scans from 20 patients (some with multiple scans), totaling over 1,300 3D CT phases. The performance in predicting the motion of the lung and heart surpasses existing benchmarks, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing motion dynamics from CT images. These results highlight the potential of our method to improve pre-treatment planning in radiotherapy, enabling more precise and adaptive radiation delivery.

The analytical formulae for the phase space factors and the three-momenta of three- and four-body final states are derived for all sets of independent kinematic variables containing invariant mass variables. These formulae will help experimental physicist to perform the data analysis. As an example, we show how to use these formulae to distinguish the different mechanisms of e+pto e+J/ψ+ p process for searching the signals of P_c states at the energy region of Electron-Ion collider at China (EicC).

Flow matching with clean-data prediction has shown that regressing the clean point can exploit low-dimensional structure more effectively than predicting an ambient noised quantity. We ask whether this principle remains useful after images are mapped into a learned latent space, where compression has already removed much of the raw pixel variability. We introduce JLT, a 130M latent diffusion Transformer over frozen FLUX.2 VAE codes, and compare clean-latent prediction with a matched velocity-prediction DiT under the same representation, backbone, and training settings. Although the three variables x, epsilon, and v are linearly convertible for a fixed corruption time, a local Gaussian analysis shows that velocity regression inherits an isotropic target-covariance floor and amplifies low-variance latent directions, while clean prediction damps them. On ImageNet 256 x 256, JLT-B/1 obtains FID-50K 2.50 with classifier-free guidance, with a large matched-target gap over velocity prediction. These results suggest that prediction targets in latent diffusion are representation-dependent geometric choices, rather than interchangeable algebraic parameterizations.

The production of a top-quark pair, the heaviest known elementary particle, in association with a light jet is a key process for studying the properties of the Standard Model of Particle Physics. Due to its significance as a signal process with considerable sensitivity to the top-quark mass and as a background process for new physics searches, it is crucial to predict differential cross sections with high precision. In this article, we present, for the first time, predictions for various kinematical observables at next-to-next-to-leading order in Quantum Chromodynamics. The perturbative behavior is analyzed, and uncertainties arising from missing higher-order contributions are substantially reduced. The necessary two-loop amplitudes have been evaluated in the leading-color approximation, and we provide estimates for the impact of the missing contributions.

Is it possible to perform linear regression on datasets whose labels are shuffled with respect to the inputs? We explore this question by proposing several estimators that recover the weights of a noisy linear model from labels that are shuffled by an unknown permutation. We show that the analog of the classical least-squares estimator produces inconsistent estimates in this setting, and introduce an estimator based on the self-moments of the input features and labels. We study the regimes in which each estimator excels, and generalize the estimators to the setting where partial ordering information is available in the form of experiments replicated independently. The result is a framework that enables robust inference, as we demonstrate by experiments on both synthetic and standard datasets, where we are able to recover approximate weights using only shuffled labels. Our work demonstrates that linear regression in the absence of complete ordering information is possible and can be of practical interest, particularly in experiments that characterize populations of particles, such as flow cytometry.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Measurements of Higgs boson production cross-sections are carried out in the diphoton decay channel using 139 fb^{-1} of pp collision data at s = 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. The analysis is based on the definition of 101 distinct signal regions using machine-learning techniques. The inclusive Higgs boson signal strength in the diphoton channel is measured to be 1.04^{+0.10}_{-0.09}. Cross-sections for gluon-gluon fusion, vector-boson fusion, associated production with a W or Z boson, and top associated production processes are reported. An upper limit of 10 times the Standard Model prediction is set for the associated production process of a Higgs boson with a single top quark, which has a unique sensitivity to the sign of the top quark Yukawa coupling. Higgs boson production is further characterized through measurements of Simplified Template Cross-Sections (STXS). In total, cross-sections of 28 STXS regions are measured. The measured STXS cross-sections are compatible with their Standard Model predictions, with a p-value of 93%. The measurements are also used to set constraints on Higgs boson coupling strengths, as well as on new interactions beyond the Standard Model in an effective field theory approach. No significant deviations from the Standard Model predictions are observed in these measurements, which provide significant sensitivity improvements compared to the previous ATLAS results.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Watch time prediction (WTP) has emerged as a pivotal task in short video recommendation systems, designed to quantify user engagement through continuous interaction modeling. Predicting users' watch times on videos often encounters fundamental challenges, including wide value ranges and imbalanced data distributions, which can lead to significant estimation bias when directly applying regression techniques. Recent studies have attempted to address these issues by converting the continuous watch time estimation into an ordinal regression task. While these methods demonstrate partial effectiveness, they exhibit notable limitations: (1) the discretization process frequently relies on bucket partitioning, inherently reducing prediction flexibility and accuracy and (2) the interdependencies among different partition intervals remain underutilized, missing opportunities for effective error correction. Inspired by language modeling paradigms, we propose a novel Generative Regression (GR) framework that reformulates WTP as a sequence generation task. Our approach employs structural discretization to enable nearly lossless value reconstruction while maintaining prediction fidelity. Through carefully designed vocabulary construction and label encoding schemes, each watch time is bijectively mapped to a token sequence. To mitigate the training-inference discrepancy caused by teacher-forcing, we introduce a curriculum learning with embedding mixup strategy that gradually transitions from guided to free-generation modes. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art approaches on two public datasets and one industrial dataset. We also perform online A/B testing on the Kuaishou App to confirm the real-world effectiveness. The results conclusively show that GR outperforms existing techniques significantly.

Ensuring safety is of paramount importance in physical human-robot interaction applications. This requires both adherence to safety constraints defined on the system state, as well as guaranteeing compliant behavior of the robot. If the underlying dynamical system is known exactly, the former can be addressed with the help of control barrier functions. The incorporation of elastic actuators in the robot's mechanical design can address the latter requirement. However, this elasticity can increase the complexity of the resulting system, leading to unmodeled dynamics, such that control barrier functions cannot directly ensure safety. In this paper, we mitigate this issue by learning the unknown dynamics using Gaussian process regression. By employing the model in a feedback linearizing control law, the safety conditions resulting from control barrier functions can be robustified to take into account model errors, while remaining feasible. In order to enforce them on-line, we formulate the derived safety conditions in the form of a second-order cone program. We demonstrate our proposed approach with simulations on a two-degree-of-freedom planar robot with elastic joints.

We develop a general approach to distill symbolic representations of a learned deep model by introducing strong inductive biases. We focus on Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). The technique works as follows: we first encourage sparse latent representations when we train a GNN in a supervised setting, then we apply symbolic regression to components of the learned model to extract explicit physical relations. We find the correct known equations, including force laws and Hamiltonians, can be extracted from the neural network. We then apply our method to a non-trivial cosmology example-a detailed dark matter simulation-and discover a new analytic formula which can predict the concentration of dark matter from the mass distribution of nearby cosmic structures. The symbolic expressions extracted from the GNN using our technique also generalized to out-of-distribution data better than the GNN itself. Our approach offers alternative directions for interpreting neural networks and discovering novel physical principles from the representations they learn.

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

Machine learning has become an essential tool in jet physics. Due to their complex, high-dimensional nature, jets can be explored holistically by neural networks in ways that are not possible manually. However, innovations in all areas of jet physics are proceeding in parallel. We show that specially constructed machine learning models trained for a specific jet classification task can improve the accuracy, precision, or speed of all other jet physics tasks. This is demonstrated by training on a particular multiclass generation and classification task and then using the learned representation for different generation and classification tasks, for datasets with a different (full) detector simulation, for jets from a different collision system (pp versus ep), for generative models, for likelihood ratio estimation, and for anomaly detection. We consider, our OmniLearn approach thus as a jet-physics foundation model. It is made publicly available for use in any area where state-of-the-art precision is required for analyses involving jets and their substructure.

Hyperparameter tuning almost always means search: fit the model at every value on a grid, score each by cross-validation, and keep the winner. For spline regression that search is unnecessary. The optimal resolution can be solved for in closed form, to the accuracy an exhaustive search reaches, at a fraction of the compute. Three ingredients make this possible: classical approximation theory pins the squared bias to a known power of the resolution G, exactly the Kolmogorov n-width of the smoothness class; the basis dimension is an explicit polynomial in G; and leave-one-out error follows from a single fit via the PRESS identity. Balancing the two known curves gives the minimizer analytically. We extend this calculus to many coordinates by replacing ambient input dimension with interaction order, the number of active low-order components in an ANOVA decomposition, yielding a scaling law in which the optimal resolution and error are power functions of the effective density (sample size per active component), with input dimension absent from the exponent. The law becomes an algorithm. KORE (Kolmogorov-optimal Order-aware Resolution Estimation) fits two pilot resolutions, solves a leverage-calibrated 2x2 system for the bias and noise scales, and evaluates the closed-form plug-in resolution with a tiny leave-one-out certificate: about a dozen fits instead of a full grid sweep, with a consistency guarantee as the sample grows. Across additive and sparse pairwise targets up to 80 input dimensions, KORE matches exhaustive 3-fold cross-validation and the full classical ladder (GCV, Mallows' Cp, AIC, BIC) while fitting roughly 8x fewer models; on 36 real tabular datasets it ranks first among 21 methods in accuracy per unit of compute, ahead of tuned boosters and kernel machines. When complexity lives in low interaction order, solving for the resolution beats searching for it.

We study the formation of primordial black holes (PBHs) and stochastic gravitational waves background (SGWB) produced by the supercooled radion phase transition (PT) in warped extra-dimension models solving the gauge hierarchy problem. We first determine how the SGWB and the produced PBH mass and abundance depend on the warped model's infrared energy scale rho, and the number of holographic colors N. With this finding, we recast on the plane {rho, N} the current SGWB and PBH constraints, as well as the expected parameter reaches of GW detectors, as LISA and ET, and the gravitational lensing ones, such as NGRST. On the same plane, we also map the collider bounds on massive graviton production, and cosmological bounds on the radion phenomenology. We find that, for N sim 10-50, the considered PT predicts a PBH population mass in the range M_{rm PBH}sim(10^{-1} - 10^{-25}) M_{odot} for rho sim (10^{-4} - 10^{8}) TeV. In the range rho simeq (0.05 - 0.5) GeV, it can explain the recent SGWB hint at nHz frequencies and generate PBH binaries with mass M_{rm PBH}sim(0.1 - 1 ) M_odot detectable at LISA and ET. The experimentally allowed mass region where PBHs can account for the whole dark matter abundance, and are produced with a tuning lesssim 10^{-4}, corresponds to 10 TeV lesssim rholesssim 10^4 TeV. These PBHs can compensate the lack of natural candidates for dark matter in warped extra dimensional models. Such a region represents a great science case where forthcoming and future colliders like HE-LHC and FCC-hh, gravitational-wave observatories and other PBHs probes play a key complementary role.

In an industrial group like Safran, numerical simulations of physical phenomena are integral to most design processes. At Safran's corporate research center, we enhance these processes by developing fast and reliable surrogate models for various physics. We focus here on two technologies developed in recent years. The first is a physical reduced-order modeling method for non-linear structural mechanics and thermal analysis, used for calculating the lifespan of high-pressure turbine blades and performing heat analysis of high-pressure compressors. The second technology involves learning physics simulations with non-parameterized geometrical variability using classical machine learning tools, such as Gaussian process regression. Finally, we present our contributions to the open-source and open-data community.

Motivated by a wide variety of applications, ranging from stochastic optimization to dimension reduction through variable selection, the problem of estimating gradients accurately is of crucial importance in statistics and learning theory. We consider here the classic regression setup, where a real valued square integrable r.v. Y is to be predicted upon observing a (possibly high dimensional) random vector X by means of a predictive function f(X) as accurately as possible in the mean-squared sense and study a nearest-neighbour-based pointwise estimate of the gradient of the optimal predictive function, the regression function m(x)=E[Ymid X=x]. Under classic smoothness conditions combined with the assumption that the tails of Y-m(X) are sub-Gaussian, we prove nonasymptotic bounds improving upon those obtained for alternative estimation methods. Beyond the novel theoretical results established, several illustrative numerical experiments have been carried out. The latter provide strong empirical evidence that the estimation method proposed works very well for various statistical problems involving gradient estimation, namely dimensionality reduction, stochastic gradient descent optimization and quantifying disentanglement.

We present the RODEM Jet Datasets, a comprehensive collection of simulated large-radius jets designed to support the development and evaluation of machine-learning algorithms in particle physics. These datasets encompass a diverse range of jet sources, including quark/gluon jets, jets from the decay of W bosons, top quarks, and heavy new-physics particles. The datasets provide detailed substructure information, including jet kinematics, constituent kinematics, and track displacement details, enabling a wide range of applications in jet tagging, anomaly detection, and generative modelling.

One of the primary challenges in brain tumor segmentation arises from the uncertainty of voxels close to tumor boundaries. However, the conventional process of generating ground truth segmentation masks fails to treat such uncertainties properly. Those "hard labels" with 0s and 1s conceptually influenced the majority of prior studies on brain image segmentation. As a result, tumor segmentation is often solved through voxel classification. In this work, we instead view this problem as a voxel-level regression, where the ground truth represents a certainty mapping from any pixel to the border of the tumor. We propose a novel ground truth label transformation, which is based on a signed geodesic transform, to capture the uncertainty in brain tumors' vicinity. We combine this idea with a Focal-like regression L1-loss that enables effective regression learning in high-dimensional output space by appropriately weighting voxels according to their difficulty. We thoroughly conduct an experimental evaluation to validate the components of our proposed method, compare it to a diverse array of state-of-the-art segmentation models, and show that it is architecture-agnostic. The code of our method is made publicly available (https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/SiNGR/).

This paper introduces the Manifold Probe, a supervised method for discovering representation manifolds in superposition. The method generalizes linear regression probes by learning the space of features of a concept that can be linearly predicted from the representations, and then learning the directions used to encode them. We demonstrate the probe on representations of time and space in Llama 2-7b, finding manifolds which linearly represent an interpretable set of features in each case. In the case of time, we show that by steering along the manifold, we can influence the model's completions about the years in which famous songs, movies and books were released, providing evidence that the Manifold Probe can discover manifolds which are causally involved in model behaviour.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

This paper presents the observation of four-top-quark (tttt) production in proton-proton collisions at the LHC. The analysis is performed using an integrated luminosity of 140 fb^{-1} at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected using the ATLAS detector. Events containing two leptons with the same electric charge or at least three leptons (electrons or muons) are selected. Event kinematics are used to separate signal from background through a multivariate discriminant, and dedicated control regions are used to constrain the dominant backgrounds. The observed (expected) significance of the measured tttt signal with respect to the standard model (SM) background-only hypothesis is 6.1 (4.3) standard deviations. The tttt production cross section is measured to be 22.5^{+6.6}_{-5.5} fb, consistent with the SM prediction of 12.0 pm 2.4 fb within 1.8 standard deviations. Data are also used to set limits on the three-top-quark production cross section, being an irreducible background not measured previously, and to constrain the top-Higgs Yukawa coupling and effective field theory operator coefficients that affect tttt production.

Time-series forecasting research has been moving steadily toward larger architectures, from specialized transformers to general-purpose foundation models, on the assumption that capacity is what unlocks accuracy. We take the opposite position: most of the gap can be closed at far lower cost by tuning preprocessing rather than scaling models. We use Ridge regression as the testbed, since it has a closed-form solution and interpretable weights, which let the optimal hyperparameters be read off the search directly. We search over context length, local normalization, regularization, and augmentation on eight standard benchmarks and find three patterns. (1) Optimal lookback is strongly series-specific and often non-monotonic in forecast horizon, with fitted power-law exponents ranging from +0.46 on ETTm2 to -0.19 on Exchange and Traffic, challenging the convention that longer horizons need longer history. (2) Normalizing over a learned trailing fraction of the context, rather than its entirety, is almost universally preferred. (3) Series within the same dataset often disagree on hyperparameters; the optimal degree of cross-series sharing varies from fully shared to fully per-series. The resulting models beat prior linear forecasters on most dataset-horizon entries and exceed Transformer, MLP, and CNN baselines on six of eight benchmarks. The optimized hyperparameters also serve as a diagnostic on the data itself, revealing structures that larger models absorb silently into their learned parameters.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

This paper presents measurements of W^{pm}Z production cross sections in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The data were collected in 2015 and 2016 by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb^{-1}. The W^{pm}Z candidate events are reconstructed using leptonic decay modes of the gauge bosons into electrons and muons. The measured inclusive cross section in the detector fiducial region for a single leptonic decay mode is σ_{W^pm Z rightarrow ell^{'} νell ell}^{fid.} = 63.7 pm 1.0 (stat.) pm 2.3 (syst.) pm 1.4 (lumi.) fb, reproduced by the next-to-next-to-leading-order Standard Model prediction of 61.5^{+1.4}_{-1.3} fb. Cross sections for W^+Z and W^-Z production and their ratio are presented as well as differential cross sections for several kinematic observables. An analysis of angular distributions of leptons from decays of W and Z bosons is performed for the first time in pair-produced events in hadronic collisions, and integrated helicity fractions in the detector fiducial region are measured for the W and Z bosons separately. Of particular interest, the longitudinal helicity fraction of pair-produced vector bosons is also measured.

Using a fully Bayesian approach, Gaussian Process regression is extended to include marginalisation over the kernel choice and kernel hyperparameters. In addition, Bayesian model comparison via the evidence enables direct kernel comparison. The calculation of the joint posterior was implemented with a transdimensional sampler which simultaneously samples over the discrete kernel choice and their hyperparameters by embedding these in a higher-dimensional space, from which samples are taken using nested sampling. Kernel recovery and mean function inference were explored on synthetic data from exoplanet transit light curve simulations. Subsequently, the method was extended to marginalisation over mean functions and noise models and applied to the inference of the present-day Hubble parameter, H_0, from real measurements of the Hubble parameter as a function of redshift, derived from the cosmologically model-independent cosmic chronometer and ΛCDM-dependent baryon acoustic oscillation observations. The inferred H_0 values from the cosmic chronometers, baryon acoustic oscillations and combined datasets are H_0= 66 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, H_0= 67 pm 10, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1} and H_0= 69 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, respectively. The kernel posterior of the cosmic chronometers dataset prefers a non-stationary linear kernel. Finally, the datasets are shown to be not in tension with ln R=12.17pm 0.02.

Tau leptons serve as an important tool for studying the production of Higgs and electroweak bosons, both within and beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. Accurate reconstruction and identification of hadronically decaying tau leptons is a crucial task for current and future high energy physics experiments. Given the advances in jet tagging, we demonstrate how tau lepton reconstruction can be decomposed into tau identification, kinematic reconstruction, and decay mode classification in a multi-task machine learning setup. Based on an electron-positron collision dataset with full detector simulation and reconstruction, we show that common jet tagging architectures can be effectively used for these sub-tasks. We achieve comparable momentum resolutions of 2-3% with all the tested models, while the precision of reconstructing individual decay modes is between 80-95%. We find ParticleTransformer to be the best-performing approach, significantly outperforming the heuristic baseline. This paper also serves as an introduction to a new publicly available Fuτure dataset for the development of tau reconstruction algorithms. This allows to further study the resilience of ML models to domain shifts and the efficient use of foundation models for such tasks.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

We analyze transformers from the perspective of iterative inference, seeking to understand how model predictions are refined layer by layer. To do so, we train an affine probe for each block in a frozen pretrained model, making it possible to decode every hidden state into a distribution over the vocabulary. Our method, the tuned lens, is a refinement of the earlier "logit lens" technique, which yielded useful insights but is often brittle. We test our method on various autoregressive language models with up to 20B parameters, showing it to be more predictive, reliable and unbiased than the logit lens. With causal experiments, we show the tuned lens uses similar features to the model itself. We also find the trajectory of latent predictions can be used to detect malicious inputs with high accuracy. All code needed to reproduce our results can be found at https://github.com/AlignmentResearch/tuned-lens.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

In physics, Lagrangians provide a systematic way to describe laws governing physical systems. In the context of particle physics, they encode the interactions and behavior of the fundamental building blocks of our universe. By treating Lagrangians as complex, rule-based constructs similar to linguistic expressions, we trained a transformer model -- proven to be effective in natural language tasks -- to predict the Lagrangian corresponding to a given list of particles. We report on the transformer's performance in constructing Lagrangians respecting the Standard Model SU(3)times SU(2)times U(1) gauge symmetries. The resulting model is shown to achieve high accuracies (over 90\%) with Lagrangians up to six matter fields, with the capacity to generalize beyond the training distribution, albeit within architectural constraints. We show through an analysis of input embeddings that the model has internalized concepts such as group representations and conjugation operations as it learned to generate Lagrangians. We make the model and training datasets available to the community. An interactive demonstration can be found at: https://huggingface.co/spaces/JoseEliel/generate-lagrangians.

Systems of interacting objects often evolve under the influence of field effects that govern their dynamics, yet previous works have abstracted away from such effects, and assume that systems evolve in a vacuum. In this work, we focus on discovering these fields, and infer them from the observed dynamics alone, without directly observing them. We theorize the presence of latent force fields, and propose neural fields to learn them. Since the observed dynamics constitute the net effect of local object interactions and global field effects, recently popularized equivariant networks are inapplicable, as they fail to capture global information. To address this, we propose to disentangle local object interactions -- which are SE(n) equivariant and depend on relative states -- from external global field effects -- which depend on absolute states. We model interactions with equivariant graph networks, and combine them with neural fields in a novel graph network that integrates field forces. Our experiments show that we can accurately discover the underlying fields in charged particles settings, traffic scenes, and gravitational n-body problems, and effectively use them to learn the system and forecast future trajectories.

We study the problem of single-image zero-shot 3D shape reconstruction. Recent works learn zero-shot shape reconstruction through generative modeling of 3D assets, but these models are computationally expensive at train and inference time. In contrast, the traditional approach to this problem is regression-based, where deterministic models are trained to directly regress the object shape. Such regression methods possess much higher computational efficiency than generative methods. This raises a natural question: is generative modeling necessary for high performance, or conversely, are regression-based approaches still competitive? To answer this, we design a strong regression-based model, called ZeroShape, based on the converging findings in this field and a novel insight. We also curate a large real-world evaluation benchmark, with objects from three different real-world 3D datasets. This evaluation benchmark is more diverse and an order of magnitude larger than what prior works use to quantitatively evaluate their models, aiming at reducing the evaluation variance in our field. We show that ZeroShape not only achieves superior performance over state-of-the-art methods, but also demonstrates significantly higher computational and data efficiency.

Real-world regression often exhibits shortcuts: attributes that are spuriously correlated with continuous targets in training, yet unreliable under deployment shifts; regressing targets using such shortcuts may fail catastrophically at test time. Existing studies on spurious correlations focus primarily on classification, where labels are categorical and groups are naturally defined. However, many real-world tasks require continuous prediction, where hard label boundaries or discrete group-label pairs do not exist. We define Deep Spurious Regression (DSR) as learning from regression data with attribute-label confounding, addressing continuous spurious correlations, and generalizing to all attribute-label combinations at test time. Motivated by the intrinsic difference between classification and regression shortcuts, we propose to exploit the similarity among spurious attributes in both label and feature spaces, thereby accounting for nearby targets and related groups while calibrating both label and learned feature distributions across attributes. Extensive experiments on common real-world DSR datasets that span computer vision, environmental sensing, and large language model (LLM) regression verify the superior performance of our strategies. Our work fills the gap in benchmarks and techniques for studying spurious correlations in continuous prediction.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

Liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) provide dense, high-fidelity 3D measurements of particle interactions and underpin current and future neutrino and rare-event experiments. Physics reconstruction typically relies on complex detector-specific pipelines that use tens of hand-engineered pattern recognition algorithms or cascades of task-specific neural networks that require extensive, labeled simulation that requires a careful, time-consuming calibration process. We introduce Panda, a model that learns reusable sensor-level representations directly from raw unlabeled LArTPC data. Panda couples a hierarchical sparse 3D encoder with a multi-view, prototype-based self-distillation objective. On a simulated dataset, Panda substantially improves label efficiency and reconstruction quality, beating the previous state-of-the-art semantic segmentation model with 1,000times fewer labels. We also show that a single set-prediction head 1/20th the size of the backbone with no physical priors trained on frozen outputs from Panda can result in particle identification that is comparable with state-of-the-art (SOTA) reconstruction tools. Full fine-tuning further improves performance across all tasks.

Recent feed-forward geometry foundation models have demonstrated impressive generalization by recovering depth and poses in a single forward pass. However, these models are typically constrained by a global coordinate frame assumption. This dependency becomes a significant bottleneck for long-context and streaming reconstruction, as it forces the network to maintain an arbitrary temporal origin and handle translation magnitudes that grow unbounded over time. Our solution, which we call R^3, employs relative regression. We employ a lightweight MLP to predict confidence-weighted relative constraints. These confidences serve as a unified anchor: weighting losses during training and guiding pose aggregation during inference. R^3 supports both full-context offline reconstruction and causal, bounded-memory streaming. Our evaluation in both offline and streaming settings validates the effectiveness of our relative mechanism. Project page: https://kevinxu02.github.io/r3-site

Although machine learning tasks are highly sensitive to the quality of input data, relevant datasets can often be challenging for firms to acquire, especially when held privately by a variety of owners. For instance, if these owners are competitors in a downstream market, they may be reluctant to share information. Focusing on supervised learning for regression tasks, we develop a regression market to provide a monetary incentive for data sharing. Our mechanism adopts a Bayesian framework, allowing us to consider a more general class of regression tasks. We present a thorough exploration of the market properties, and show that similar proposals in literature expose the market agents to sizeable financial risks, which can be mitigated in our setup.

Data-driven modeling in real-world regression tasks often suffers from limited training samples, high collection costs, and noisy observations. Inspired by the impact of data augmentation in vision and language, we propose a novel Counterfactual Residual Data Augmentation (CRDA) technique for tabular regression. Our key insight is that once a regressor has modeled the systematic component of the data, the remaining noise can be viewed as an invariant residual that remains stable under small perturbations of carefully selected features. We exploit this residual invariance to generate new, yet realistic, training samples, effectively expanding the dataset without requiring additional real data. Our method is model-agnostic and readily applicable to various types of regressors. In experiments across datasets from a variety of benchmark repositories, on average, CRDA reduces an MLP Regressor's MSE by 22.9% and an XGBoost Regressor's MSE by 6.4%. When compared to existing state-of-the-art data generators and augmentation techniques, CRDA consistently outperforms in MSE reduction. By adding principled counterfactual variations to the training data, our method offers a simple and efficient remedy for noise-prone, small-sample regression settings.

This work is about estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with Generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and asked to make a prediction based on that dataset. The Bayesian interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM is calculating a posterior predictive distribution over an unknown Bayesian model of a latent parameter and data. With this perspective, we define a hallucination as a generated prediction that has low-probability under the true latent parameter. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem -- that is, a CGM, a dataset, and a prediction question -- and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating queries and responses from the model and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method on synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks using large language models.

Despite advances in the programmable logic capabilities of modern trigger systems, a significant bottleneck remains in the amount of data to be transported from the detector to off-detector logic where trigger decisions are made. We demonstrate that a neural network autoencoder model can be implemented in a radiation tolerant ASIC to perform lossy data compression alleviating the data transmission problem while preserving critical information of the detector energy profile. For our application, we consider the high-granularity calorimeter from the CMS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The advantage of the machine learning approach is in the flexibility and configurability of the algorithm. By changing the neural network weights, a unique data compression algorithm can be deployed for each sensor in different detector regions, and changing detector or collider conditions. To meet area, performance, and power constraints, we perform a quantization-aware training to create an optimized neural network hardware implementation. The design is achieved through the use of high-level synthesis tools and the hls4ml framework, and was processed through synthesis and physical layout flows based on a LP CMOS 65 nm technology node. The flow anticipates 200 Mrad of ionizing radiation to select gates, and reports a total area of 3.6 mm^2 and consumes 95 mW of power. The simulated energy consumption per inference is 2.4 nJ. This is the first radiation tolerant on-detector ASIC implementation of a neural network that has been designed for particle physics applications.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are undergoing a period of rapid updates and changes, with state-of-the-art (SOTA) model frequently being replaced. When applying LLMs to a specific scientific field, it's challenging to acquire unique domain knowledge while keeping the model itself advanced. To address this challenge, a sophisticated large language model system named as Xiwu has been developed, allowing you switch between the most advanced foundation models and quickly teach the model domain knowledge. In this work, we will report on the best practices for applying LLMs in the field of high-energy physics (HEP), including: a seed fission technology is proposed and some data collection and cleaning tools are developed to quickly obtain domain AI-Ready dataset; a just-in-time learning system is implemented based on the vector store technology; an on-the-fly fine-tuning system has been developed to facilitate rapid training under a specified foundation model. The results show that Xiwu can smoothly switch between foundation models such as LLaMA, Vicuna, ChatGLM and Grok-1. The trained Xiwu model is significantly outperformed the benchmark model on the HEP knowledge question-and-answering and code generation. This strategy significantly enhances the potential for growth of our model's performance, with the hope of surpassing GPT-4 as it evolves with the development of open-source models. This work provides a customized LLM for the field of HEP, while also offering references for applying LLM to other fields, the corresponding codes are available on Github.