Daily Papers

Autonomous driving requires reasoning about how the environment evolves and planning actions accordingly. Existing world-model-based approaches typically predict future scenes first and plan afterwards, resulting in open-loop imagination that may drift from the actual decision process. In this paper, we present Uni-World VLA, a unified vision-language-action (VLA) model that tightly interleaves future frame prediction and trajectory planning. Instead of generating a full world rollout before planning, our model alternates between predicting future frames and ego actions step by step, allowing planning decisions to be continuously conditioned on the imagined future observations. This interleaved generation forms a closed-loop interaction between world modeling and control, enabling more adaptive decision-making in dynamic traffic scenarios. In addition, we incorporate monocular depth information into frames to provide stronger geometric cues for world modeling, improving long-horizon scene prediction. Experiments on the NAVSIM benchmark show that our approach achieves competitive closed-loop planning performance while producing high-fidelity future frame predictions. These results demonstrate that tightly coupling world prediction and planning is a promising direction for scalable VLA driving systems.

Detecting abnormal activities in real-world surveillance videos is an important yet challenging task as the prior knowledge about video anomalies is usually limited or unavailable. Despite that many approaches have been developed to resolve this problem, few of them can capture the normal spatio-temporal patterns effectively and efficiently. Moreover, existing works seldom explicitly consider the local consistency at frame level and global coherence of temporal dynamics in video sequences. To this end, we propose Convolutional Transformer based Dual Discriminator Generative Adversarial Networks (CT-D2GAN) to perform unsupervised video anomaly detection. Specifically, we first present a convolutional transformer to perform future frame prediction. It contains three key components, i.e., a convolutional encoder to capture the spatial information of the input video clips, a temporal self-attention module to encode the temporal dynamics, and a convolutional decoder to integrate spatio-temporal features and predict the future frame. Next, a dual discriminator based adversarial training procedure, which jointly considers an image discriminator that can maintain the local consistency at frame-level and a video discriminator that can enforce the global coherence of temporal dynamics, is employed to enhance the future frame prediction. Finally, the prediction error is used to identify abnormal video frames. Thoroughly empirical studies on three public video anomaly detection datasets, i.e., UCSD Ped2, CUHK Avenue, and Shanghai Tech Campus, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adversarial spatio-temporal modeling framework.

We propose Embodied Navigation Trajectory Learner (ENTL), a method for extracting long sequence representations for embodied navigation. Our approach unifies world modeling, localization and imitation learning into a single sequence prediction task. We train our model using vector-quantized predictions of future states conditioned on current states and actions. ENTL's generic architecture enables sharing of the spatio-temporal sequence encoder for multiple challenging embodied tasks. We achieve competitive performance on navigation tasks using significantly less data than strong baselines while performing auxiliary tasks such as localization and future frame prediction (a proxy for world modeling). A key property of our approach is that the model is pre-trained without any explicit reward signal, which makes the resulting model generalizable to multiple tasks and environments.

We present PhysInOne, a large-scale synthetic dataset addressing the critical scarcity of physically-grounded training data for AI systems. Unlike existing datasets limited to merely hundreds or thousands of examples, PhysInOne provides 2 million videos across 153,810 dynamic 3D scenes, covering 71 basic physical phenomena in mechanics, optics, fluid dynamics, and magnetism. Distinct from previous works, our scenes feature multiobject interactions against complex backgrounds, with comprehensive ground-truth annotations including 3D geometry, semantics, dynamic motion, physical properties, and text descriptions. We demonstrate PhysInOne's efficacy across four emerging applications: physics-aware video generation, long-/short-term future frame prediction, physical property estimation, and motion transfer. Experiments show that fine-tuning foundation models on PhysInOne significantly enhances physical plausibility, while also exposing critical gaps in modeling complex physical dynamics and estimating intrinsic properties. As the largest dataset of its kind, orders of magnitude beyond prior works, PhysInOne establishes a new benchmark for advancing physics-grounded world models in generation, simulation, and embodied AI.

Unifying multimodal understanding and generation has shown impressive capabilities in cutting-edge proprietary systems. In this work, we introduce BAGEL, an open0source foundational model that natively supports multimodal understanding and generation. BAGEL is a unified, decoder0only model pretrained on trillions of tokens curated from large0scale interleaved text, image, video, and web data. When scaled with such diverse multimodal interleaved data, BAGEL exhibits emerging capabilities in complex multimodal reasoning. As a result, it significantly outperforms open-source unified models in both multimodal generation and understanding across standard benchmarks, while exhibiting advanced multimodal reasoning abilities such as free-form image manipulation, future frame prediction, 3D manipulation, and world navigation. In the hope of facilitating further opportunities for multimodal research, we share the key findings, pretraining details, data creation protocal, and release our code and checkpoints to the community. The project page is at https://bagel-ai.org/

Extracting optical flow from videos remains a core computer vision problem. Motivated by the success of large general-purpose models, we ask whether frozen self-supervised video models trained only for future frame prediction can be prompted, without fine-tuning, to output flow. Prior work reading out depth or illumination from video generators required fine-tuning, which is impractical for flow where labels are scarce and synthetic datasets suffer from a sim-to-real gap. Inspired by the Counterfactual World Model (CWM) paradigm, which can obtain point-wise correspondences by injecting a small tracer perturbation into a next-frame predictor and tracking its propagation, we extend this idea to generative video models. We explore several popular architectures and find that successful zero-shot flow extraction in this manner is aided by three model properties: (1) distributional prediction of future frames (avoiding blurry or noisy outputs); (2) factorized latents that treat each spatio-temporal patch independently; and (3) random-access decoding that can condition on any subset of future pixels. These properties are uniquely present in the recent Local Random Access Sequence (LRAS) architecture. Building on LRAS, we propose KL-tracing: a novel test-time procedure that injects a localized perturbation into the first frame, rolls out the model one step, and computes the Kullback-Leibler divergence between perturbed and unperturbed predictive distributions. Without any flow-specific fine-tuning, our method outperforms state-of-the-art models on real-world TAP-Vid DAVIS dataset (16.6% relative improvement for endpoint error) and synthetic TAP-Vid Kubric (4.7% relative improvement). Our results indicate that counterfactual prompting of controllable generative video models is a scalable and effective alternative to supervised or photometric-loss approaches for high-quality flow.

We explore a novel video creation experience, namely Video Creation by Demonstration. Given a demonstration video and a context image from a different scene, we generate a physically plausible video that continues naturally from the context image and carries out the action concepts from the demonstration. To enable this capability, we present delta-Diffusion, a self-supervised training approach that learns from unlabeled videos by conditional future frame prediction. Unlike most existing video generation controls that are based on explicit signals, we adopts the form of implicit latent control for maximal flexibility and expressiveness required by general videos. By leveraging a video foundation model with an appearance bottleneck design on top, we extract action latents from demonstration videos for conditioning the generation process with minimal appearance leakage. Empirically, delta-Diffusion outperforms related baselines in terms of both human preference and large-scale machine evaluations, and demonstrates potentials towards interactive world simulation. Sampled video generation results are available at https://delta-diffusion.github.io/.

As a crucial element of public security, video anomaly detection (VAD) aims to measure deviations from normal patterns for various events in real-time surveillance systems. However, most existing VAD methods rely on large-scale models to pursue extreme accuracy, limiting their feasibility on resource-limited edge devices. Moreover, mainstream prediction-based VAD detects anomalies using only single-frame future prediction errors, overlooking the richer constraints from longer-term temporal forward information. In this paper, we introduce FoGA, a lightweight VAD model that performs Forward consistency learning with Gated context Aggregation, containing about 2M parameters and tailored for potential edge devices. Specifically, we propose a Unet-based method that performs feature extraction on consecutive frames to generate both immediate and forward predictions. Then, we introduce a gated context aggregation module into the skip connections to dynamically fuse encoder and decoder features at the same spatial scale. Finally, the model is jointly optimized with a novel forward consistency loss, and a hybrid anomaly measurement strategy is adopted to integrate errors from both immediate and forward frames for more accurate detection. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, which substantially outperforms state-of-the-art competing methods, running up to 155 FPS. Hence, our FoGA achieves an excellent trade-off between performance and the efficiency metric.

Self-supervised learning of image representations by predicting future frames is a promising direction but still remains a challenge. This is because of the under-determined nature of frame prediction; multiple potential futures can arise from a single current frame. To tackle this challenge, in this paper, we revisit the idea of stochastic video generation that learns to capture uncertainty in frame prediction and explore its effectiveness for representation learning. Specifically, we design a framework that trains a stochastic frame prediction model to learn temporal information between frames. Moreover, to learn dense information within each frame, we introduce an auxiliary masked image modeling objective along with a shared decoder architecture. We find this architecture allows for combining both objectives in a synergistic and compute-efficient manner. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework on a variety of tasks from video label propagation and vision-based robot learning domains, such as video segmentation, pose tracking, vision-based robotic locomotion, and manipulation tasks. Code is available on the project webpage: https://sites.google.com/view/2024rsp.

Future Frame Synthesis (FFS), the task of generating subsequent video frames from context, represents a core challenge in machine intelligence and a cornerstone for developing predictive world models. This survey provides a comprehensive analysis of the FFS landscape, charting its critical evolution from deterministic algorithms focused on pixel-level accuracy to modern generative paradigms that prioritize semantic coherence and dynamic plausibility. We introduce a novel taxonomy organized by algorithmic stochasticity, which not only categorizes existing methods but also reveals the fundamental drivers--advances in architectures, datasets, and computational scale--behind this paradigm shift. Critically, our analysis identifies a bifurcation in the field's trajectory: one path toward efficient, real-time prediction, and another toward large-scale, generative world simulation. By pinpointing key challenges and proposing concrete research questions for both frontiers, this survey serves as an essential guide for researchers aiming to advance the frontiers of visual dynamic modeling.

Recent works in video prediction have mainly focused on passive forecasting and low-level action-conditional prediction, which sidesteps the learning of interaction between agents and objects. We introduce the task of semantic action-conditional video prediction, which uses semantic action labels to describe those interactions and can be regarded as an inverse problem of action recognition. The challenge of this new task primarily lies in how to effectively inform the model of semantic action information. Inspired by the idea of Mixture of Experts, we embody each abstract label by a structured combination of various visual concept learners and propose a novel video prediction model, Modular Action Concept Network (MAC). Our method is evaluated on two newly designed synthetic datasets, CLEVR-Building-Blocks and Sapien-Kitchen, and one real-world dataset called Tower-Creation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MAC can correctly condition on given instructions and generate corresponding future frames without need of bounding boxes. We further show that the trained model can make out-of-distribution generalization, be quickly adapted to new object categories and exploit its learnt features for object detection, showing the progression towards higher-level cognitive abilities. More visualizations can be found at http://www.pair.toronto.edu/mac/.

Video event prediction (VEP) requires models to infer unobserved future states from partial video evidence. Existing video MLLMs usually verbalize intermediate future reasoning in text space: once visual evidence is verbalized, fine-grained motion, geometry, and interaction cues can be lost, leading to plausible but visually ungrounded hallucinations. We introduce Future-L1, an interleaved latent visual reasoning framework that lets an MLLM alternate between language tokens and continuous latent visual spans during autoregressive decoding. To train this capability, we construct Future-L1-50K by selecting examples where future visual hints help prediction and align latent states to future-frame embeddings, then further optimize sampled latent trajectories with LA-DAPO, a latent-aware RL objective with outcome-contrastive and temporal-diversity rewards. Future-L1 achieves new state-of-the-art results on both benchmarks: on FutureBench, it improves Qwen3-VL-8B from 61.0 to 85.4 and exceeds the previous best Video-CoE by 10.4 points; on TwiFF-Bench, it improves the average score from 2.44 to 3.04. These results suggest that future-oriented video reasoning benefits from preserving intermediate visual semantics in latent space rather than translating every reasoning step into text.

Egocentric video generation with fine-grained control through body motion is a key requirement towards embodied AI agents that can simulate, predict, and plan actions. In this work, we propose EgoControl, a pose-controllable video diffusion model trained on egocentric data. We train a video prediction model to condition future frame generation on explicit 3D body pose sequences. To achieve precise motion control, we introduce a novel pose representation that captures both global camera dynamics and articulated body movements, and integrate it through a dedicated control mechanism within the diffusion process. Given a short sequence of observed frames and a sequence of target poses, EgoControl generates temporally coherent and visually realistic future frames that align with the provided pose control. Experimental results demonstrate that EgoControl produces high-quality, pose-consistent egocentric videos, paving the way toward controllable embodied video simulation and understanding.

Generic Event Boundary Detection (GEBD) aims to interpret long-form videos through the lens of human perception. However, current GEBD methods require processing complete video frames to make predictions, unlike humans processing data online and in real-time. To bridge this gap, we introduce a new task, Online Generic Event Boundary Detection (On-GEBD), aiming to detect boundaries of generic events immediately in streaming videos. This task faces unique challenges of identifying subtle, taxonomy-free event changes in real-time, without the access to future frames. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel On-GEBD framework, Estimator, inspired by Event Segmentation Theory (EST) which explains how humans segment ongoing activity into events by leveraging the discrepancies between predicted and actual information. Our framework consists of two key components: the Consistent Event Anticipator (CEA), and the Online Boundary Discriminator (OBD). Specifically, the CEA generates a prediction of the future frame reflecting current event dynamics based solely on prior frames. Then, the OBD measures the prediction error and adaptively adjusts the threshold using statistical tests on past errors to capture diverse, subtle event transitions. Experimental results demonstrate that Estimator outperforms all baselines adapted from recent online video understanding models and achieves performance comparable to prior offline-GEBD methods on the Kinetics-GEBD and TAPOS datasets.

This paper presents RynnVLA-001, a vision-language-action(VLA) model built upon large-scale video generative pretraining from human demonstrations. We propose a novel two-stage pretraining methodology. The first stage, Ego-Centric Video Generative Pretraining, trains an Image-to-Video model on 12M ego-centric manipulation videos to predict future frames conditioned on an initial frame and a language instruction. The second stage, Human-Centric Trajectory-Aware Modeling, extends this by jointly predicting future keypoint trajectories, thereby effectively bridging visual frame prediction with action prediction. Furthermore, to enhance action representation, we propose ActionVAE, a variational autoencoder that compresses sequences of actions into compact latent embeddings, reducing the complexity of the VLA output space. When finetuned on the same downstream robotics datasets, RynnVLA-001 achieves superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrating that the proposed pretraining strategy provides a more effective initialization for VLA models.

Learning transferable latent actions from large-scale object manipulation videos can significantly enhance generalization in downstream robotics tasks, as such representations are agnostic to different robot embodiments. Existing approaches primarily rely on visual reconstruction objectives while neglecting physical priors, leading to sub-optimal performance in learning universal representations. To address these challenges, we propose a Universal Latent Action Learning framework that takes task instructions and multiple frames as inputs, and optimizes both future frame reconstruction and action sequence prediction. Unlike prior works, incorporating action predictions (e.g., gripper or hand trajectories and orientations) allows the model to capture richer physical priors such as real-world distances and orientations, thereby enabling seamless transferability to downstream tasks. We further decompose the latent actions into learnable motion and scene tokens to distinguish the robot's active movements from environmental changes, thus filtering out irrelevant dynamics. By distilling the learned latent actions into the latest VLA models, we achieve strong performance across both simulated (SIMPLER and LIBERO) and real-world robot settings. Notably, with only 10 real-world trajectories per task collected on a Franka robot, our approach successfully completes all five challenging tasks, demonstrating strong few-shot transferability in robotic manipulation.

Recent advances in video generation have been dominated by diffusion and flow-matching models, which produce high-quality results but remain computationally intensive and difficult to scale. In this work, we introduce VideoAR, the first large-scale Visual Autoregressive (VAR) framework for video generation that combines multi-scale next-frame prediction with autoregressive modeling. VideoAR disentangles spatial and temporal dependencies by integrating intra-frame VAR modeling with causal next-frame prediction, supported by a 3D multi-scale tokenizer that efficiently encodes spatio-temporal dynamics. To improve long-term consistency, we propose Multi-scale Temporal RoPE, Cross-Frame Error Correction, and Random Frame Mask, which collectively mitigate error propagation and stabilize temporal coherence. Our multi-stage pretraining pipeline progressively aligns spatial and temporal learning across increasing resolutions and durations. Empirically, VideoAR achieves new state-of-the-art results among autoregressive models, improving FVD on UCF-101 from 99.5 to 88.6 while reducing inference steps by over 10x, and reaching a VBench score of 81.74-competitive with diffusion-based models an order of magnitude larger. These results demonstrate that VideoAR narrows the performance gap between autoregressive and diffusion paradigms, offering a scalable, efficient, and temporally consistent foundation for future video generation research.

We introduce UniOcc, a comprehensive, unified benchmark for occupancy forecasting (i.e., predicting future occupancies based on historical information) and current-frame occupancy prediction from camera images. UniOcc unifies data from multiple real-world datasets (i.e., nuScenes, Waymo) and high-fidelity driving simulators (i.e., CARLA, OpenCOOD), which provides 2D/3D occupancy labels with per-voxel flow annotations and support for cooperative autonomous driving. In terms of evaluation, unlike existing studies that rely on suboptimal pseudo labels for evaluation, UniOcc incorporates novel metrics that do not depend on ground-truth occupancy, enabling robust assessment of additional aspects of occupancy quality. Through extensive experiments on state-of-the-art models, we demonstrate that large-scale, diverse training data and explicit flow information significantly enhance occupancy prediction and forecasting performance.

World Action Models (WAMs) commonly rely on video generation to bridge visual world modeling and robot control. However, video-based WAMs face three coupled limitations: dense multi-frame future tokens make inference costly, full video prediction spends capacity on action-irrelevant temporal and appearance details, and long-horizon future imagination may introduce errors that mislead action prediction. These issues raise a simple question: Does world action model really need video generation? We propose ImageWAM, a simple WAM framework that repurposes pretrained image editing models for robot action prediction. In contrast to video generation, image editing provides a better-matched prior: it only needs to model a target-frame transformation, focuses on action-relevant current-to-target visual differences, and grounds task instructions to localized visual changes through edit pretraining. In practice, ImageWAM does not decode the target frame at inference time; instead, it conditions a flow-matching action expert on the KV caches produced by image-editing denoising, using them as a compact world-action context. ImageWAM outperforms standard VLA baselines and matching competitive WAMs without additional policy pretraining across different simulator and real-world experiments. It also reduces FLOPs to 1/6 and latency to 1/4 of video-based WAMs. Attention analysis further shows that editing caches focus on task-relevant change regions, supporting image editing as an effective alternative to video-based world-action modeling.

This paper presents WALDO (WArping Layer-Decomposed Objects), a novel approach to the prediction of future video frames from past ones. Individual images are decomposed into multiple layers combining object masks and a small set of control points. The layer structure is shared across all frames in each video to build dense inter-frame connections. Complex scene motions are modeled by combining parametric geometric transformations associated with individual layers, and video synthesis is broken down into discovering the layers associated with past frames, predicting the corresponding transformations for upcoming ones and warping the associated object regions accordingly, and filling in the remaining image parts. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks including urban videos (Cityscapes and KITTI) and videos featuring nonrigid motions (UCF-Sports and H3.6M), show that our method consistently outperforms the state of the art by a significant margin in every case. Code, pretrained models, and video samples synthesized by our approach can be found in the project webpage https://16lemoing.github.io/waldo.

End-to-end autonomous driving unifies tasks in a differentiable framework, enabling planning-oriented optimization and attracting growing attention. Current methods aggregate historical information either through dense historical bird's-eye-view (BEV) features or by querying a sparse memory bank, following paradigms inherited from detection. However, we argue that these paradigms either omit historical information in motion planning or fail to align with its multi-step nature, which requires predicting or planning multiple future time steps. In line with the philosophy of future is a continuation of past, we propose BridgeAD, which reformulates motion and planning queries as multi-step queries to differentiate the queries for each future time step. This design enables the effective use of historical prediction and planning by applying them to the appropriate parts of the end-to-end system based on the time steps, which improves both perception and motion planning. Specifically, historical queries for the current frame are combined with perception, while queries for future frames are integrated with motion planning. In this way, we bridge the gap between past and future by aggregating historical insights at every time step, enhancing the overall coherence and accuracy of the end-to-end autonomous driving pipeline. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset in both open-loop and closed-loop settings demonstrate that BridgeAD achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Predicting future trajectories of surrounding agents is essential for safety-critical autonomous driving. Most existing work focuses on predicting marginal trajectories for each agent independently. However, it has rarely been explored in predicting joint trajectories for interactive agents. In this work, we propose Bi-level Future Fusion (BiFF) to explicitly capture future interactions between interactive agents. Concretely, BiFF fuses the high-level future intentions followed by low-level future behaviors. Then the polyline-based coordinate is specifically designed for multi-agent prediction to ensure data efficiency, frame robustness, and prediction accuracy. Experiments show that BiFF achieves state-of-the-art performance on the interactive prediction benchmark of Waymo Open Motion Dataset.

World Action Models (WAMs) present a promising paradigm for robotic control via video prediction. However, current WAMs suffer from fundamental spatial bottlenecks: standard text inputs introduce referential ambiguity in cluttered scenes, while unstructured RGB predictions lack semantic grounding and remain biased by task-irrelevant backgrounds. To overcome these limitations, we introduce MaskWAM, an object-centric world-action model. By jointly integrating masks as both explicit inputs and predictions via a unified Mixture of Transformers (MoT), MaskWAM unlocks robust policy generalization. This design provides two key benefits: (1) predicting future masks yields object-centric semantic supervision that suppresses visual noise, significantly enhancing even standard text-conditioned WAMs; and (2) coupling this predictive supervision with first-frame visual prompts, such as target object masks, establishes a precise spatial anchor that substantially reduces language ambiguity. Crucially, as WAMs are inherently vision-driven architectures, direct mask conditioning yields substantially stronger guidance than text alone, establishing a precise and robust paradigm for manipulating unseen objects. Evaluations on LIBERO, RoboTwin, and real-world tasks demonstrate that MaskWAM significantly outperforms baselines in both language-clear and language-ambiguous tasks.

Channel prediction is critical to address the channel aging issue in mobile scenarios. Existing channel prediction techniques are mainly designed for discrete channel prediction, which can only predict the future channel in a fixed time slot per frame, while the other intra-frame channels are usually recovered by interpolation. However, these approaches suffer from a serious interpolation loss, especially for mobile millimeter wave communications. To solve this challenging problem, we propose a tensor neural ordinary differential equation (TN-ODE) based continuous-time channel prediction scheme to realize the direct prediction of intra-frame channels. Specifically, inspired by the recently developed continuous mapping model named neural ODE in the field of machine learning, we first utilize the neural ODE model to predict future continuous-time channels. To improve the channel prediction accuracy and reduce computational complexity, we then propose the TN-ODE scheme to learn the structural characteristics of the high-dimensional channel by low dimensional learnable transform. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme is able to achieve higher intra-frame channel prediction accuracy than existing schemes.

Generating videos in the first-person perspective has broad application prospects in the field of augmented reality and embodied intelligence. In this work, we explore the cross-view video prediction task, where given an exo-centric video, the first frame of the corresponding ego-centric video, and textual instructions, the goal is to generate futur frames of the ego-centric video. Inspired by the notion that hand-object interactions (HOI) in ego-centric videos represent the primary intentions and actions of the current actor, we present EgoExo-Gen that explicitly models the hand-object dynamics for cross-view video prediction. EgoExo-Gen consists of two stages. First, we design a cross-view HOI mask prediction model that anticipates the HOI masks in future ego-frames by modeling the spatio-temporal ego-exo correspondence. Next, we employ a video diffusion model to predict future ego-frames using the first ego-frame and textual instructions, while incorporating the HOI masks as structural guidance to enhance prediction quality. To facilitate training, we develop an automated pipeline to generate pseudo HOI masks for both ego- and exo-videos by exploiting vision foundation models. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed EgoExo-Gen achieves better prediction performance compared to previous video prediction models on the Ego-Exo4D and H2O benchmark datasets, with the HOI masks significantly improving the generation of hands and interactive objects in the ego-centric videos.

In this paper, we propose a novel video depth estimation approach, FutureDepth, which enables the model to implicitly leverage multi-frame and motion cues to improve depth estimation by making it learn to predict the future at training. More specifically, we propose a future prediction network, F-Net, which takes the features of multiple consecutive frames and is trained to predict multi-frame features one time step ahead iteratively. In this way, F-Net learns the underlying motion and correspondence information, and we incorporate its features into the depth decoding process. Additionally, to enrich the learning of multiframe correspondence cues, we further leverage a reconstruction network, R-Net, which is trained via adaptively masked auto-encoding of multiframe feature volumes. At inference time, both F-Net and R-Net are used to produce queries to work with the depth decoder, as well as a final refinement network. Through extensive experiments on several benchmarks, i.e., NYUDv2, KITTI, DDAD, and Sintel, which cover indoor, driving, and open-domain scenarios, we show that FutureDepth significantly improves upon baseline models, outperforms existing video depth estimation methods, and sets new state-of-the-art (SOTA) accuracy. Furthermore, FutureDepth is more efficient than existing SOTA video depth estimation models and has similar latencies when comparing to monocular models

Autoregressive video generation has emerged as a powerful paradigm for World Action Models (WAMs). However, existing approaches suffer from slow training convergence and limited converged accuracy, particularly at high frame rates, as the training supervision is confined to the current chunk without explicit signals about future dynamics; they also suffer from slow inference due to iterative video denoising. In this paper, we present Next Forcing, a multi-chunk prediction (MCP) framework for causal world modeling that enables faster training, higher accuracy, and accelerated inference. Inspired by multi-token prediction in large language models, Next Forcing introduces an MCP training objective that augments the main model with lightweight auxiliary MCP modules to simultaneously denoise video chunks at multiple future temporal horizons (next^1, next^2, next^3 chunks). These MCP modules form a causal chain across prediction depths, where intermediate features fused from multiple layers of the main model are leveraged to predict future dynamics, allowing near-future predictions to inform farther-future ones and providing dense multi-scale temporal supervision back to the main model. During training, the MCP modules significantly accelerate convergence and improve converged accuracy, especially at high frame rates: at 50 fps, Next Forcing achieves a 93.1% relative improvement over LingBot-VA at 5k training steps and 2.3x faster convergence, and establishes new state-of-the-art results on the RoboTwin benchmark (94.1/93.5% on Clean/Random). At inference, the MCP modules can be retained to predict the next video chunk in parallel with the current one, achieving 2x inference acceleration. Next Forcing also demonstrates significant improvements on PhyWorld, a benchmark evaluating adherence to physical laws in video generation, and over 50% FVD reduction on general video pretraining.

Robotic manipulation is often specified through language instructions or task identifiers, yet cluttered environments with similar objects are better handled by spatially indicating what to move and where to place it. Addressing the vision-centric challenge of object and goal specification, we present, to the best of our knowledge, the first formalization of Spatially Prompted Visual Trajectory Prediction (SP-VTP). This novel setting utilizes initial spatial prompts (like bounding boxes or points) to define task objectives, tasking the model with forecasting future end-effector trajectories from egocentric streams. To study this problem, we collect and annotate EgoSPT, a dataset of egocentric spatially prompted manipulation trajectories with first-frame object and target grounding annotations and recovered 3D end-effector motion. SP-VTP is challenging because the task specification is static, while the scene configuration evolves over time. To solve this problem, we propose SPOT(Spatially Prompted Object-Target Policy), which combines a task encoder for first-frame visual and coordinate spatial prompts, an observation encoder for current visual and history context, and a trajectory generator for future end-effector motion. Experiments under strict scene-level splits show that SPOT improves cross-scene trajectory prediction over non-prompted or single-source prompted baselines. Together, EgoSPT and SPOT establish a new spatial prompting problem SP-VTP, as a simple and scalable task condition for egocentric manipulation.

Video Object Segmentation and Tracking (VOST) presents a complex yet critical challenge in computer vision, requiring robust integration of segmentation and tracking across temporally dynamic frames. Traditional methods have struggled with domain generalization, temporal consistency, and computational efficiency. The emergence of foundation models like the Segment Anything Model (SAM) and its successor, SAM2, has introduced a paradigm shift, enabling prompt-driven segmentation with strong generalization capabilities. Building upon these advances, this survey provides a comprehensive review of SAM/SAM2-based methods for VOST, structured along three temporal dimensions: past, present, and future. We examine strategies for retaining and updating historical information (past), approaches for extracting and optimizing discriminative features from the current frame (present), and motion prediction and trajectory estimation mechanisms for anticipating object dynamics in subsequent frames (future). In doing so, we highlight the evolution from early memory-based architectures to the streaming memory and real-time segmentation capabilities of SAM2. We also discuss recent innovations such as motion-aware memory selection and trajectory-guided prompting, which aim to enhance both accuracy and efficiency. Finally, we identify remaining challenges including memory redundancy, error accumulation, and prompt inefficiency, and suggest promising directions for future research. This survey offers a timely and structured overview of the field, aiming to guide researchers and practitioners in advancing the state of VOST through the lens of foundation models.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models built upon Chain-of-Thought (CoT) have achieved remarkable success in advancing general-purpose robotic agents, owing to its significant perceptual comprehension. Recently, since text-only CoT struggles to adequately capture scene details in complex spatial environments, a highly promising strategy involves leveraging visual priors to guide robotic action generation. Nevertheless, these strategies face two inherent challenges: (i) a modality gap between visual observations and low-level actions, and (ii) unstable training due to competing objectives between visual prediction and action generation. To address these challenges, we propose a Vision-Integrated Trajectory Alignment (VITA) framework that learns a shared discrete latent space for vision and action, enabling joint modeling of perception and motor control. VITA introduces a implicit visual CoT: autoregressively generated tokens is simultaneously decoded into future frames predictions and robot actions, thereby internalizing visual dynamics as an inductive bias for motion planning. Extensive experiments on simulated and real-world environments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance. VITA improves 14.5\%, 9.6\% and 12.1\% over existing baselines on CALVIN, LIBERO and SimplerEnv. Furthermore, VITA attains an average success rate of 80.5\% across six real-world tasks, demonstrating its potential as a generalist robotic manipulation model.

Visual language models (VLMs) have attracted increasing interest in autonomous driving due to their powerful reasoning capabilities. However, existing VLMs typically utilize discrete text Chain-of-Thought (CoT) tailored to the current scenario, which essentially represents highly abstract and symbolic compression of visual information, potentially leading to spatio-temporal relationship ambiguity and fine-grained information loss. Is autonomous driving better modeled on real-world simulation and imagination than on pure symbolic logic? In this paper, we propose a spatio-temporal CoT reasoning method that enables models to think visually. First, VLM serves as a world model to generate unified image frame for predicting future world states: where perception results (e.g., lane divider and 3D detection) represent the future spatial relationships, and ordinary future frame represent the temporal evolution relationships. This spatio-temporal CoT then serves as intermediate reasoning steps, enabling the VLM to function as an inverse dynamics model for trajectory planning based on current observations and future predictions. To implement visual generation in VLMs, we propose a unified pretraining paradigm integrating visual generation and understanding, along with a progressive visual CoT enhancing autoregressive image generation. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, advancing autonomous driving towards visual reasoning.

Visual Chain-of-Thought (VCoT) has emerged as a promising paradigm for enhancing multimodal reasoning by integrating visual perception into intermediate reasoning steps. However, existing VCoT approaches are largely confined to static scenarios and struggle to capture the temporal dynamics essential for tasks such as instruction, prediction, and camera motion. To bridge this gap, we propose TwiFF-2.7M, the first large-scale, temporally grounded VCoT dataset derived from 2.7 million video clips, explicitly designed for dynamic visual question and answer. Accompanying this, we introduce TwiFF-Bench, a high-quality evaluation benchmark of 1,078 samples that assesses both the plausibility of reasoning trajectories and the correctness of final answers in open-ended dynamic settings. Building on these foundations, we propose the TwiFF model, a unified modal that synergistically leverages pre-trained video generation and image comprehension capabilities to produce temporally coherent visual reasoning cues-iteratively generating future action frames and textual reasoning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TwiFF significantly outperforms existing VCoT methods and Textual Chain-of-Thought baselines on dynamic reasoning tasks, which fully validates the effectiveness for visual question answering in dynamic scenarios. Our code and data is available at https://github.com/LiuJunhua02/TwiFF.

Video prediction aims to generate realistic future frames by learning dynamic visual patterns. One fundamental challenge is to deal with future uncertainty: How should a model behave when there are multiple correct, equally probable future? We propose an Appearance-Motion Conditional GAN to address this challenge. We provide appearance and motion information as conditions that specify how the future may look like, reducing the level of uncertainty. Our model consists of a generator, two discriminators taking charge of appearance and motion pathways, and a perceptual ranking module that encourages videos of similar conditions to look similar. To train our model, we develop a novel conditioning scheme that consists of different combinations of appearance and motion conditions. We evaluate our model using facial expression and human action datasets and report favorable results compared to existing methods.

Next-token prediction serves as the foundational learning task enabling reasoning in LLMs. But what should the learning task be when aiming to equip MLLMs with temporal reasoning capabilities over video inputs? Existing tasks such as video question answering often rely on annotations from humans or much stronger MLLMs, while video captioning tends to entangle temporal reasoning with spatial information. To address this gap, we propose next-event prediction (NEP), a learning task that harnesses future video segments as a rich, self-supervised signal to foster temporal reasoning. We segment each video into past and future frames: the MLLM takes the past frames as input and predicts a summary of events derived from the future frames, thereby encouraging the model to reason temporally in order to complete the task. To support this task, we curate V1-33K, a dataset comprising 33,000 automatically extracted video segments spanning diverse real-world scenarios. We further explore a range of video instruction-tuning strategies to study their effects on temporal reasoning. To evaluate progress, we introduce FutureBench to assess coherence in predicting unseen future events. Experiments validate that NEP offers a scalable and effective training paradigm for fostering temporal reasoning in MLLMs.

Visual representations play a crucial role in developing generalist robotic policies. Previous vision encoders, typically pre-trained with single-image reconstruction or two-image contrastive learning, tend to capture static information, often neglecting the dynamic aspects vital for embodied tasks. Recently, video diffusion models (VDMs) demonstrate the ability to predict future frames and showcase a strong understanding of physical world. We hypothesize that VDMs inherently produce visual representations that encompass both current static information and predicted future dynamics, thereby providing valuable guidance for robot action learning. Based on this hypothesis, we propose the Video Prediction Policy (VPP), which learns implicit inverse dynamics model conditioned on predicted future representations inside VDMs. To predict more precise future, we fine-tune pre-trained video foundation model on robot datasets along with internet human manipulation data. In experiments, VPP achieves a 18.6\% relative improvement on the Calvin ABC-D generalization benchmark compared to the previous state-of-the-art, and demonstrates a 31.6\% increase in success rates for complex real-world dexterous manipulation tasks. Project page at https://video-prediction-policy.github.io

A robust awareness of how dynamic scenes evolve is essential for Autonomous Driving systems, as they must accurately detect, track, and predict the behaviour of surrounding obstacles. Traditional perception pipelines that rely on modular architectures tend to suffer from cumulative errors and latency. Instance Prediction models provide a unified solution, performing Bird's-Eye-View segmentation and motion estimation across current and future frames using information directly obtained from different sensors. However, a key challenge in these models lies in the effective processing of the dense spatial and temporal information inherent in dynamic driving environments. This level of complexity demands architectures capable of capturing fine-grained motion patterns and long-range dependencies without compromising real-time performance. We introduce BEVPredFormer, a novel camera-only architecture for BEV instance prediction that uses attention-based temporal processing to improve temporal and spatial comprehension of the scene and relies on an attention-based 3D projection of the camera information. BEVPredFormer employs a recurrent-free design that incorporates gated transformer layers, divided spatio-temporal attention mechanisms, and multi-scale head tasks. Additionally, we incorporate a difference-guided feature extraction module that enhances temporal representations. Extensive ablation studies validate the effectiveness of each architectural component. When evaluated on the nuScenes dataset, BEVPredFormer was on par or surpassed State-Of-The-Art methods, highlighting its potential for robust and efficient Autonomous Driving perception.

This paper introduces a novel method for self-supervised video representation learning via feature prediction. In contrast to the previous methods that focus on future feature prediction, we argue that a supervisory signal arising from unobserved past frames is complementary to one that originates from the future frames. The rationale behind our method is to encourage the network to explore the temporal structure of videos by distinguishing between future and past given present observations. We train our model in a contrastive learning framework, where joint encoding of future and past provides us with a comprehensive set of temporal hard negatives via swapping. We empirically show that utilizing both signals enriches the learned representations for the downstream task of action recognition. It outperforms independent prediction of future and past.

Egocentric gaze estimation is commonly studied using models that process the full video with access to future frames, while real-world applications require strictly causal, online prediction. This discrepancy raises key questions: Does future context inherently provide valuable signals for gaze estimation? If so, how much future look-ahead optimally supervises a causal model during training? To investigate, we propose a controlled framework featuring a future-aware branch that accesses a tunable look-ahead horizon during training but is discarded at inference. This design isolates the impact of future context while keeping the inference architecture fixed and strictly causal. Across EGTEA Gaze+ and Ego4D, we find that future-privileged supervision consistently improves causal gaze prediction, confirming its utility. However, performance gains do not increase monotonically with longer look-ahead, but rather peak within a bounded temporal regime. Specifically, optimal performance corresponds to roughly 1.7--3.3 seconds of future context (H{in}[5, 10]) on EGTEA Gaze+ and 2.7 seconds (H{=}10) on Ego4D. Our results demonstrate that lightweight causal models can effectively absorb future-aware signals, providing practical guidance for real-time egocentric gaze modeling.

Video prediction is a challenging task. The quality of video frames from current state-of-the-art (SOTA) generative models tends to be poor and generalization beyond the training data is difficult. Furthermore, existing prediction frameworks are typically not capable of simultaneously handling other video-related tasks such as unconditional generation or interpolation. In this work, we devise a general-purpose framework called Masked Conditional Video Diffusion (MCVD) for all of these video synthesis tasks using a probabilistic conditional score-based denoising diffusion model, conditioned on past and/or future frames. We train the model in a manner where we randomly and independently mask all the past frames or all the future frames. This novel but straightforward setup allows us to train a single model that is capable of executing a broad range of video tasks, specifically: future/past prediction -- when only future/past frames are masked; unconditional generation -- when both past and future frames are masked; and interpolation -- when neither past nor future frames are masked. Our experiments show that this approach can generate high-quality frames for diverse types of videos. Our MCVD models are built from simple non-recurrent 2D-convolutional architectures, conditioning on blocks of frames and generating blocks of frames. We generate videos of arbitrary lengths autoregressively in a block-wise manner. Our approach yields SOTA results across standard video prediction and interpolation benchmarks, with computation times for training models measured in 1-12 days using le 4 GPUs. Project page: https://mask-cond-video-diffusion.github.io ; Code : https://github.com/voletiv/mcvd-pytorch

The mainstream of the existing approaches for video prediction builds up their models based on a Single-In-Single-Out (SISO) architecture, which takes the current frame as input to predict the next frame in a recursive manner. This way often leads to severe performance degradation when they try to extrapolate a longer period of future, thus limiting the practical use of the prediction model. Alternatively, a Multi-In-Multi-Out (MIMO) architecture that outputs all the future frames at one shot naturally breaks the recursive manner and therefore prevents error accumulation. However, only a few MIMO models for video prediction are proposed and they only achieve inferior performance due to the date. The real strength of the MIMO model in this area is not well noticed and is largely under-explored. Motivated by that, we conduct a comprehensive investigation in this paper to thoroughly exploit how far a simple MIMO architecture can go. Surprisingly, our empirical studies reveal that a simple MIMO model can outperform the state-of-the-art work with a large margin much more than expected, especially in dealing with longterm error accumulation. After exploring a number of ways and designs, we propose a new MIMO architecture based on extending the pure Transformer with local spatio-temporal blocks and a new multi-output decoder, namely MIMO-VP, to establish a new standard in video prediction. We evaluate our model in four highly competitive benchmarks (Moving MNIST, Human3.6M, Weather, KITTI). Extensive experiments show that our model wins 1st place on all the benchmarks with remarkable performance gains and surpasses the best SISO model in all aspects including efficiency, quantity, and quality. We believe our model can serve as a new baseline to facilitate the future research of video prediction tasks. The code will be released.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have emerged as a promising paradigm for robot learning, but their representations are still largely inherited from static image-text pretraining, leaving physical dynamics to be learned from comparatively limited action data. Generative video models, by contrast, encode rich spatiotemporal structure and implicit physics, making them a compelling foundation for robotic manipulation. But their potentials are not fully explored in the literature. To bridge the gap, we introduce DiT4DiT, an end-to-end Video-Action Model that couples a video Diffusion Transformer with an action Diffusion Transformer in a unified cascaded framework. Instead of relying on reconstructed future frames, DiT4DiT extracts intermediate denoising features from the video generation process and uses them as temporally grounded conditions for action prediction. We further propose a dual flow-matching objective with decoupled timesteps and noise scales for video prediction, hidden-state extraction, and action inference, enabling coherent joint training of both modules. Across simulation and real-world benchmarks, DiT4DiT achieves state-of-the-art results, reaching average success rates of 98.6% on LIBERO and 50.8% on RoboCasa GR1 while using substantially less training data. On the Unitree G1 robot, it also delivers superior real-world performance and strong zero-shot generalization. Importantly, DiT4DiT improves sample efficiency by over 10x and speeds up convergence by up to 7x, demonstrating that video generation can serve as an effective scaling proxy for robot policy learning. We release code and models at https://dit4dit.github.io/.

Pretraining Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies on internet-scale video is appealing, yet current latent-action objectives often learn the wrong thing: they remain anchored to pixel variation rather than action-relevant state transitions, making them vulnerable to appearance bias, nuisance motion, and information leakage. We introduce VLA-JEPA, a JEPA-style pretraining framework that sidesteps these pitfalls by design. The key idea is leakage-free state prediction: a target encoder produces latent representations from future frames, while the student pathway sees only the current observation -- future information is used solely as supervision targets, never as input. By predicting in latent space rather than pixel space, VLA-JEPA learns dynamics abstractions that are robust to camera motion and irrelevant background changes. This yields a simple two-stage recipe -- JEPA pretraining followed by action-head fine-tuning -- without the multi-stage complexity of prior latent-action pipelines. Experiments on LIBERO, LIBERO-Plus, SimplerEnv and real-world manipulation tasks show that VLA-JEPA achieves consistent gains in generalization and robustness over existing methods.

In egocentric scenarios, anticipating both the next action and its visual outcome is essential for understanding human-object interactions and for enabling robotic planning. However, existing paradigms fall short of jointly modeling these aspects. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models focus on action prediction but lack explicit modeling of how actions influence the visual scene, while video prediction models generate future frames without conditioning on specific actions, often resulting in implausible or contextually inconsistent outcomes. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified two-stage predictive framework that jointly models action and visual future in egocentric scenarios, conditioned on hand trajectories. In the first stage, we perform consecutive state modeling to process heterogeneous inputs (visual observations, language, and action history) and explicitly predict future hand trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce causal cross-attention to fuse multi-modal cues, leveraging inferred action signals to guide an image-based Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) for frame-by-frame future video generation. Our approach is the first unified model designed to handle both egocentric human activity understanding and robotic manipulation tasks, providing explicit predictions of both upcoming actions and their visual consequences. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, BridgeData, and RLBench demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both action prediction and future video synthesis.

Large-scale video generative models have recently demonstrated strong visual capabilities, enabling the prediction of future frames that adhere to the logical and physical cues in the current observation. In this work, we investigate whether such capabilities can be harnessed for controllable image-to-video generation by interpreting visual signals embedded within the frames as instructions, a paradigm we term In-Video Instruction. In contrast to prompt-based control, which provides textual descriptions that are inherently global and coarse, In-Video Instruction encodes user guidance directly into the visual domain through elements such as overlaid text, arrows, or trajectories. This enables explicit, spatial-aware, and unambiguous correspondences between visual subjects and their intended actions by assigning distinct instructions to different objects. Extensive experiments on three state-of-the-art generators, including Veo 3.1, Kling 2.5, and Wan 2.2, show that video models can reliably interpret and execute such visually embedded instructions, particularly in complex multi-object scenarios.

Predicting future human behavior from egocentric videos is a challenging but critical task for human intention understanding. Existing methods for forecasting 2D hand positions rely on visual representations and mainly focus on hand-object interactions. In this paper, we investigate the hand forecasting task and tackle two significant issues that persist in the existing methods: (1) 2D hand positions in future frames are severely affected by ego-motions in egocentric videos; (2) prediction based on visual information tends to overfit to background or scene textures, posing a challenge for generalization on novel scenes or human behaviors. To solve the aforementioned problems, we propose EMAG, an ego-motion-aware and generalizable 2D hand forecasting method. In response to the first problem, we propose a method that considers ego-motion, represented by a sequence of homography matrices of two consecutive frames. We further leverage modalities such as optical flow, trajectories of hands and interacting objects, and ego-motions, thereby alleviating the second issue. Extensive experiments on two large-scale egocentric video datasets, Ego4D and EPIC-Kitchens 55, verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. In particular, our model outperforms prior methods by 1.7% and 7.0% on intra and cross-dataset evaluations, respectively. Project page: https://masashi-hatano.github.io/EMAG/

Accurate future video prediction requires both high visual fidelity and consistent scene semantics, particularly in complex dynamic environments such as autonomous driving. We present Re2Pix, a hierarchical video prediction framework that decomposes forecasting into two stages: semantic representation prediction and representation-guided visual synthesis. Instead of directly predicting future RGB frames, our approach first forecasts future scene structure in the feature space of a frozen vision foundation model, and then conditions a latent diffusion model on these predicted representations to render photorealistic frames. This decomposition enables the model to focus first on scene dynamics and then on appearance generation. A key challenge arises from the train-test mismatch between ground-truth representations available during training and predicted ones used at inference. To address this, we introduce two conditioning strategies, nested dropout and mixed supervision, that improve robustness to imperfect autoregressive predictions. Experiments on challenging driving benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed semantics-first design significantly improves temporal semantic consistency, perceptual quality, and training efficiency compared to strong diffusion baselines. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/Re2Pix

World models that forecast scene evolution by generating future video frames devote the bulk of their capacity to photometric details, yet the resulting predictions often remain geometrically inconsistent. We present VGGT-World, a geometry world model that side-steps video generation entirely and instead forecasts the temporal evolution of frozen geometry-foundation-model (GFM) features. Concretely, we repurpose the latent tokens of a frozen VGGT as the world state and train a lightweight temporal flow transformer to autoregressively predict their future trajectory. Two technical challenges arise in this high-dimensional (d=1024) feature space: (i) standard velocity-prediction flow matching collapses, and (ii) autoregressive rollout suffers from compounding exposure bias. We address the first with a clean-target (z-prediction) parameterization that yields a substantially higher signal-to-noise ratio, and the second with a two-stage latent flow-forcing curriculum that progressively conditions the model on its own partially denoised rollouts. Experiments on KITTI, Cityscapes, and TartanAir demonstrate that VGGT-World significantly outperforms the strongest baselines in depth forecasting while running 3.6-5 times faster with only 0.43B trainable parameters, establishing frozen GFM features as an effective and efficient predictive state for 3D world modeling.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

Given a video with aligned dialogue, people can often infer what is more likely to happen next. Making such predictions requires not only a deep understanding of the rich dynamics underlying the video and dialogue, but also a significant amount of commonsense knowledge. In this work, we explore whether AI models are able to learn to make such multimodal commonsense next-event predictions. To support research in this direction, we collect a new dataset, named Video-and-Language Event Prediction (VLEP), with 28,726 future event prediction examples (along with their rationales) from 10,234 diverse TV Show and YouTube Lifestyle Vlog video clips. In order to promote the collection of non-trivial challenging examples, we employ an adversarial human-and-model-in-the-loop data collection procedure. We also present a strong baseline incorporating information from video, dialogue, and commonsense knowledge. Experiments show that each type of information is useful for this challenging task, and that compared to the high human performance on VLEP, our model provides a good starting point but leaves large room for future work. Our dataset and code are available at: https://github.com/jayleicn/VideoLanguageFuturePred

We present Palm, a solution to the Long-Term Action Anticipation (LTA) task utilizing vision-language and large language models. Given an input video with annotated action periods, the LTA task aims to predict possible future actions. We hypothesize that an optimal solution should capture the interdependency between past and future actions, and be able to infer future actions based on the structure and dependency encoded in the past actions. Large language models have demonstrated remarkable commonsense-based reasoning ability. Inspired by that, Palm chains an image captioning model and a large language model. It predicts future actions based on frame descriptions and action labels extracted from the input videos. Our method outperforms other participants in the EGO4D LTA challenge and achieves the best performance in terms of action prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/DanDoge/Palm

Anticipating diverse future states is a central challenge in video world modeling. Discriminative world models produce a deterministic prediction that implicitly averages over possible futures, while existing generative world models remain computationally expensive. Recent work demonstrates that predicting the future in the feature space of a vision foundation model (VFM), rather than a latent space optimized for pixel reconstruction, requires significantly fewer world model parameters. However, most such approaches remain discriminative. In this work, we introduce DeltaTok, a tokenizer that encodes the VFM feature difference between consecutive frames into a single continuous "delta" token, and DeltaWorld, a generative world model operating on these tokens to efficiently generate diverse plausible futures. Delta tokens reduce video from a three-dimensional spatio-temporal representation to a one-dimensional temporal sequence, for example yielding a 1,024x token reduction with 512x512 frames. This compact representation enables tractable multi-hypothesis training, where many futures are generated in parallel and only the best is supervised. At inference, this leads to diverse predictions in a single forward pass. Experiments on dense forecasting tasks demonstrate that DeltaWorld forecasts futures that more closely align with real-world outcomes, while having over 35x fewer parameters and using 2,000x fewer FLOPs than existing generative world models. Code and weights: https://deltatok.github.io.

A central challenge of video prediction lies where the system has to reason the objects' future motions from image frames while simultaneously maintaining the consistency of their appearances across frames. This work introduces an end-to-end trainable two-stream video prediction framework, Motion-Matrix-based Video Prediction (MMVP), to tackle this challenge. Unlike previous methods that usually handle motion prediction and appearance maintenance within the same set of modules, MMVP decouples motion and appearance information by constructing appearance-agnostic motion matrices. The motion matrices represent the temporal similarity of each and every pair of feature patches in the input frames, and are the sole input of the motion prediction module in MMVP. This design improves video prediction in both accuracy and efficiency, and reduces the model size. Results of extensive experiments demonstrate that MMVP outperforms state-of-the-art systems on public data sets by non-negligible large margins (about 1 db in PSNR, UCF Sports) in significantly smaller model sizes (84% the size or smaller).

Predicting future motion is crucial in video understanding and controllable video generation. Dense point trajectories are a compact, expressive motion representation, but modeling their future evolution from observed video remains challenging. We propose a framework that predicts future trajectories and visibility from past trajectories and video context. Our method has three components: (1) Grid-Anchor Offset Encoding, which reduces location-dependent bias by representing each point as an offset from its pixel-center anchor; (2) TrajLoom-VAE, which learns a compact spatiotemporal latent space for dense trajectories with masked reconstruction and a spatiotemporal consistency regularizer; and (3) TrajLoom-Flow, which generates future trajectories in latent space via flow matching, with boundary cues and on-policy K-step fine-tuning for stable sampling. We also introduce TrajLoomBench, a unified benchmark spanning real and synthetic videos with a standardized setup aligned with video-generation benchmarks. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, our approach extends the prediction horizon from 24 to 81 frames while improving motion realism and stability across datasets. The predicted trajectories directly support downstream video generation and editing. Code, model checkpoints, and datasets are available at https://trajloom.github.io/.

Generating controllable character animation from a reference image and motion guidance remains a challenging task due to the inherent difficulty of injecting appearance and motion cues into video diffusion models. Prior works often rely on complex architectures, explicit guider modules, or multi-stage processing pipelines, which increase structural overhead and hinder deployment. Inspired by the strong visual context modeling capacity of pre-trained video diffusion transformers, we propose FramePrompt, a minimalist yet powerful framework that treats reference images, skeleton-guided motion, and target video clips as a unified visual sequence. By reformulating animation as a conditional future prediction task, we bypass the need for guider networks and structural modifications. Experiments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms representative baselines across various evaluation metrics while also simplifying training. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of sequence-level visual conditioning and demonstrate the potential of pre-trained models for controllable animation without architectural changes.

Although Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate strong omni-modal perception, their ability to forecast future events from audio-visual cues remains largely unexplored, as existing benchmarks focus mainly on retrospective understanding. To bridge this gap, we introduce FutureOmni, the first benchmark designed to evaluate omni-modal future forecasting from audio-visual environments. The evaluated models are required to perform cross-modal causal and temporal reasoning, as well as effectively leverage internal knowledge to predict future events. FutureOmni is constructed via a scalable LLM-assisted, human-in-the-loop pipeline and contains 919 videos and 1,034 multiple-choice QA pairs across 8 primary domains. Evaluations on 13 omni-modal and 7 video-only models show that current systems struggle with audio-visual future prediction, particularly in speech-heavy scenarios, with the best accuracy of 64.8% achieved by Gemini 3 Flash. To mitigate this limitation, we curate a 7K-sample instruction-tuning dataset and propose an Omni-Modal Future Forecasting (OFF) training strategy. Evaluations on FutureOmni and popular audio-visual and video-only benchmarks demonstrate that OFF enhances future forecasting and generalization. We publicly release all code (https://github.com/OpenMOSS/FutureOmni) and datasets (https://huggingface.co/datasets/OpenMOSS-Team/FutureOmni).

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

Planning with world models offers a powerful paradigm for robotic control. Conventional approaches train a model to predict future frames conditioned on current frames and actions, which can then be used for planning. However, the objective of predicting future pixels is often at odds with the actual planning objective; strong pixel reconstruction does not always correlate with good planning decisions. This paper posits that instead of reconstructing future frames as pixels, world models only need to predict task-relevant semantic information about the future. For such prediction the paper poses world modeling as a visual question answering problem about semantic information in future frames. This perspective allows world modeling to be approached with the same tools underlying vision language models. Thus vision language models can be trained as "semantic" world models through a supervised finetuning process on image-action-text data, enabling planning for decision-making while inheriting many of the generalization and robustness properties from the pretrained vision-language models. The paper demonstrates how such a semantic world model can be used for policy improvement on open-ended robotics tasks, leading to significant generalization improvements over typical paradigms of reconstruction-based action-conditional world modeling. Website available at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/swm.

Next-token prediction (NTP) has driven the success of large language models (LLMs), but it struggles with long-horizon reasoning, planning, and creative writing, with these limitations largely attributed to teacher-forced training. Multi-token prediction (MTP) partially mitigates these issues by predicting several future tokens at once, but it mostly captures short-range dependencies and offers limited improvement. We propose future summary prediction (FSP), which trains an auxiliary head to predict a compact representation of the long-term future, preserving information relevant for long-form generations. We explore two variants of FSP: handcrafted summaries, for example, a bag of words summary of the future sequence, and learned summaries, which use embeddings produced by a reverse language model trained from right-to-left order. Large-scale pretraining experiments (3B and 8B-parameter models) demonstrate that FSP provides improvements over both NTP and MTP across math, reasoning, and coding benchmarks.

Audio-visual event parsing plays a crucial role in understanding multimodal video content, but existing methods typically rely on offline processing of entire videos with huge model sizes, limiting their real-time applicability. We introduce Online Audio-Visual Event Parsing (On-AVEP), a novel paradigm for parsing audio, visual, and audio-visual events by sequentially analyzing incoming video streams. The On-AVEP task necessitates models with two key capabilities: (1) Accurate online inference, to effectively distinguish events with unclear and limited context in online settings, and (2) Real-time efficiency, to balance high performance with computational constraints. To cultivate these, we propose the Predictive Future Modeling (PreFM) framework featured by (a) predictive multimodal future modeling to infer and integrate beneficial future audio-visual cues, thereby enhancing contextual understanding and (b) modality-agnostic robust representation along with focal temporal prioritization to improve precision and generalization. Extensive experiments on the UnAV-100 and LLP datasets show PreFM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a large margin with significantly fewer parameters, offering an insightful approach for real-time multimodal video understanding. Code is available at https://github.com/XiaoYu-1123/PreFM.

Designing video prediction models that account for the inherent uncertainty of the future is challenging. Most works in the literature are based on stochastic image-autoregressive recurrent networks, which raises several performance and applicability issues. An alternative is to use fully latent temporal models which untie frame synthesis and temporal dynamics. However, no such model for stochastic video prediction has been proposed in the literature yet, due to design and training difficulties. In this paper, we overcome these difficulties by introducing a novel stochastic temporal model whose dynamics are governed in a latent space by a residual update rule. This first-order scheme is motivated by discretization schemes of differential equations. It naturally models video dynamics as it allows our simpler, more interpretable, latent model to outperform prior state-of-the-art methods on challenging datasets.

Anticipating actions before they are executed is crucial for a wide range of practical applications, including autonomous driving and robotics. In this paper, we study the egocentric action anticipation task, which predicts future action seconds before it is performed for egocentric videos. Previous approaches focus on summarizing the observed content and directly predicting future action based on past observations. We believe it would benefit the action anticipation if we could mine some cues to compensate for the missing information of the unobserved frames. We then propose to decompose the action anticipation into a series of future feature predictions. We imagine how the visual feature changes in the near future and then predicts future action labels based on these imagined representations. Differently, our ImagineRNN is optimized in a contrastive learning way instead of feature regression. We utilize a proxy task to train the ImagineRNN, i.e., selecting the correct future states from distractors. We further improve ImagineRNN by residual anticipation, i.e., changing its target to predicting the feature difference of adjacent frames instead of the frame content. This promotes the network to focus on our target, i.e., the future action, as the difference between adjacent frame features is more important for forecasting the future. Extensive experiments on two large-scale egocentric action datasets validate the effectiveness of our method. Our method significantly outperforms previous methods on both the seen test set and the unseen test set of the EPIC Kitchens Action Anticipation Challenge.

Causal video generators must predict from the past, but they need not learn only from it. In streaming autoregressive video diffusion, each emitted segment becomes a commitment that future segments must preserve. Standard training, however, only asks each causal state to explain the present. This creates what we call a representation-level planning gap: states that fit the current segment may discard identity, layout, and motion information needed for a consistent future. We introduce Video-Mirai, a training-only method that closes this gap without changing causal inference: the generator rolls out causally, a frozen foresight encoder reads the completed rollout non-causally, and a lightweight predictor distills the resulting stopped-gradient targets into causal states. Future frames supervise representations, never generator inputs. At inference, the encoder and predictor are discarded, leaving the original architecture, per-step FLOPs, and KV-cache behavior unchanged. Video-Mirai improves a strong Causal-Forcing baseline on 5-second VBench from 83.8 to 84.6 in terms of Total Score. On 30-second rollouts beyond the training horizon, subject consistency improves from 84.9 to 88.5 and background consistency from 90.2 to 91.9. Ablations identify future-conditioned targets as the key ingredient, and probes show that future frames become more decodable from current features. Causality should constrain inference, not representation supervision. Our study highlights that visual autoregressive models need foresight. Project page: https://y0uroy.github.io/Video-Mirai.

Autoregressive models for video generation typically operate frame-by-frame, extending next-token prediction from language to video's temporal dimension. We question that unlike word as token is universally agreed in language if frame is a appropriate prediction unit? To address this, we present VideoAR, a unified framework that supports a spectrum of prediction units including full frames, key-detail frames, multiscale refinements, and spatiotemporal cubes. Among these designs, we find model video generation using spatiotemporal cubes as prediction units, which allows autoregressive models to operate across both spatial and temporal dimensions simultaneously. This approach eliminates the assumption that frames are the natural atomic units for video autoregression. We evaluate VideoAR across diverse prediction strategies, finding that cube-based prediction consistently delivers superior quality, speed, and temporal coherence. By removing the frame-by-frame constraint, our video generator surpasses state-of-the-art baselines on VBench while achieving faster inference and enabling seamless scaling to minute-long sequences. We hope this work will motivate rethinking sequence decomposition in video and other spatiotemporal domains.

Recent unified models for joint understanding and generation have significantly advanced visual generation capabilities. However, their focus on conventional tasks like text-to-video generation has left the temporal reasoning potential of unified models largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce Next Scene Prediction (NSP), a new task that pushes unified video models toward temporal and causal reasoning. Unlike text-to-video generation, NSP requires predicting plausible futures from preceding context, demanding deeper understanding and reasoning. To tackle this task, we propose a unified framework combining Qwen-VL for comprehension and LTX for synthesis, bridged by a latent query embedding and a connector module. This model is trained in three stages on our newly curated, large-scale NSP dataset: text-to-video pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning (via GRPO) with our proposed causal consistency reward. Experiments demonstrate our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on our benchmark, advancing the capability of generalist multimodal systems to anticipate what happens next.

Can we better anticipate an actor's future actions (e.g. mix eggs) by knowing what commonly happens after his/her current action (e.g. crack eggs)? What if we also know the longer-term goal of the actor (e.g. making egg fried rice)? The long-term action anticipation (LTA) task aims to predict an actor's future behavior from video observations in the form of verb and noun sequences, and it is crucial for human-machine interaction. We propose to formulate the LTA task from two perspectives: a bottom-up approach that predicts the next actions autoregressively by modeling temporal dynamics; and a top-down approach that infers the goal of the actor and plans the needed procedure to accomplish the goal. We hypothesize that large language models (LLMs), which have been pretrained on procedure text data (e.g. recipes, how-tos), have the potential to help LTA from both perspectives. It can help provide the prior knowledge on the possible next actions, and infer the goal given the observed part of a procedure, respectively. To leverage the LLMs, we propose a two-stage framework, AntGPT. It first recognizes the actions already performed in the observed videos and then asks an LLM to predict the future actions via conditioned generation, or to infer the goal and plan the whole procedure by chain-of-thought prompting. Empirical results on the Ego4D LTA v1 and v2 benchmarks, EPIC-Kitchens-55, as well as EGTEA GAZE+ demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. AntGPT achieves state-of-the-art performance on all above benchmarks, and can successfully infer the goal and thus perform goal-conditioned "counterfactual" prediction via qualitative analysis. Code and model will be released at https://brown-palm.github.io/AntGPT

Video prediction is a complex time-series forecasting task with great potential in many use cases. However, conventional methods overemphasize accuracy while ignoring the slow prediction speed caused by complicated model structures that learn too much redundant information with excessive GPU memory consumption. Furthermore, conventional methods mostly predict frames sequentially (frame-by-frame) and thus are hard to accelerate. Consequently, valuable use cases such as real-time danger prediction and warning cannot achieve fast enough inference speed to be applicable in reality. Therefore, we propose a transformer-based keypoint prediction neural network (TKN), an unsupervised learning method that boost the prediction process via constrained information extraction and parallel prediction scheme. TKN is the first real-time video prediction solution to our best knowledge, while significantly reducing computation costs and maintaining other performance. Extensive experiments on KTH and Human3.6 datasets demonstrate that TKN predicts 11 times faster than existing methods while reducing memory consumption by 17.4% and achieving state-of-the-art prediction performance on average.

Recent successes in autoregressive (AR) generation models, such as the GPT series in natural language processing, have motivated efforts to replicate this success in visual tasks. Some works attempt to extend this approach to autonomous driving by building video-based world models capable of generating realistic future video sequences and predicting ego states. However, prior works tend to produce unsatisfactory results, as the classic GPT framework is designed to handle 1D contextual information, such as text, and lacks the inherent ability to model the spatial and temporal dynamics essential for video generation. In this paper, we present DrivingWorld, a GPT-style world model for autonomous driving, featuring several spatial-temporal fusion mechanisms. This design enables effective modeling of both spatial and temporal dynamics, facilitating high-fidelity, long-duration video generation. Specifically, we propose a next-state prediction strategy to model temporal coherence between consecutive frames and apply a next-token prediction strategy to capture spatial information within each frame. To further enhance generalization ability, we propose a novel masking strategy and reweighting strategy for token prediction to mitigate long-term drifting issues and enable precise control. Our work demonstrates the ability to produce high-fidelity and consistent video clips of over 40 seconds in duration, which is over 2 times longer than state-of-the-art driving world models. Experiments show that, in contrast to prior works, our method achieves superior visual quality and significantly more accurate controllable future video generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/YvanYin/DrivingWorld.

Accurately anticipating how complex, diverse scenes will evolve requires models that represent uncertainty, simulate along extended interaction chains, and efficiently explore many plausible futures. Yet most existing approaches rely on dense video or latent-space prediction, expending substantial capacity on dense appearance rather than on the underlying sparse trajectories of points in the scene. This makes large-scale exploration of future hypotheses costly and limits performance when long-horizon, multi-modal motion is essential. We address this by formulating the prediction of open-set future scene dynamics as step-wise inference over sparse point trajectories. Our autoregressive diffusion model advances these trajectories through short, locally predictable transitions, explicitly modeling the growth of uncertainty over time. This dynamics-centric representation enables fast rollout of thousands of diverse futures from a single image, optionally guided by initial constraints on motion, while maintaining physical plausibility and long-range coherence. We further introduce OWM, a benchmark for open-set motion prediction based on diverse in-the-wild videos, to evaluate accuracy and variability of predicted trajectory distributions under real-world uncertainty. Our method matches or surpasses dense simulators in predictive accuracy while achieving orders-of-magnitude higher sampling speed, making open-set future prediction both scalable and practical. Project page: http://compvis.github.io/myriad.

Recent progress in latent world models (e.g., V-JEPA2) has shown promising capability in forecasting future world states from video observations. Nevertheless, dense prediction from a short observation window limits temporal context and can bias predictors toward local, low-level extrapolation, making it difficult to capture long-horizon semantics and reducing downstream utility. Vision--language models (VLMs), in contrast, provide strong semantic grounding and general knowledge by reasoning over uniformly sampled frames, but they are not ideal as standalone dense predictors due to compute-driven sparse sampling, a language-output bottleneck that compresses fine-grained interaction states into text-oriented representations, and a data-regime mismatch when adapting to small action-conditioned datasets. We propose a VLM-guided JEPA-style latent world modeling framework that combines dense-frame dynamics modeling with long-horizon semantic guidance via a dual-temporal pathway: a dense JEPA branch for fine-grained motion and interaction cues, and a uniformly sampled VLM thinker branch with a larger temporal stride for knowledge-rich guidance. To transfer the VLM's progressive reasoning signals effectively, we introduce a hierarchical pyramid representation extraction module that aggregates multi-layer VLM representations into guidance features compatible with latent prediction. Experiments on hand-manipulation trajectory prediction show that our method outperforms both a strong VLM-only baseline and a JEPA-predictor baseline, and yields more robust long-horizon rollout behavior.

World action models jointly predict future video and action during training, raising an open question about what role the future-prediction branch actually plays. A recent finding shows that this branch can be removed at inference with little to no loss on common manipulation benchmarks, suggesting that future information may act merely as a regularizer on the shared visual backbone. We propose instead that joint training induces an action-conditioned correction that privileged future observations impose on action denoising, and that current-only policies capture this correction only partially. Making the account precise, we formulate privileged foresight as a residual in the action-denoising direction -- the difference between what a model predicts given the true future and what it predicts given only the current frame -- and introduce Privileged Foresight Distillation (PFD), which transfers this residual from a training-time teacher into a small adapter on a current-only student. The teacher and student share the same backbone and differ only in the attention mask over video tokens; future video is never generated at inference. Controlled experiments verify that this gain reflects a genuine future-conditioned correction rather than a side effect of capacity or regularization. Empirically, PFD achieves consistent improvements on LIBERO and RoboTwin manipulation benchmarks while preserving the current-only inference interface at negligible added latency. This view reframes the role of future information in world action models: not as a target to predict, nor as a regularizer to absorb, but as a compressible correction to be distilled.

Machine learning approaches to spatiotemporal physical systems have primarily focused on next-frame prediction, with the goal of learning an accurate emulator for the system's evolution in time. However, these emulators are computationally expensive to train and are subject to performance pitfalls, such as compounding errors during autoregressive rollout. In this work, we take a different perspective and look at scientific tasks further downstream of predicting the next frame, such as estimation of a system's governing physical parameters. Accuracy on these tasks offers a uniquely quantifiable glimpse into the physical relevance of the representations of these models. We evaluate the effectiveness of general-purpose self-supervised methods in learning physics-grounded representations that are useful for downstream scientific tasks. Surprisingly, we find that not all methods designed for physical modeling outperform generic self-supervised learning methods on these tasks, and methods that learn in the latent space (e.g., joint embedding predictive architectures, or JEPAs) outperform those optimizing pixel-level prediction objectives. Code is available at https://github.com/helenqu/physical-representation-learning.

Long-context autoregressive modeling has significantly advanced language generation, but video generation still struggles to fully utilize extended temporal contexts. To investigate long-context video modeling, we introduce Frame AutoRegressive (FAR), a strong baseline for video autoregressive modeling. Just as language models learn causal dependencies between tokens (i.e., Token AR), FAR models temporal causal dependencies between continuous frames, achieving better convergence than Token AR and video diffusion transformers. Building on FAR, we observe that long-context vision modeling faces challenges due to visual redundancy. Existing RoPE lacks effective temporal decay for remote context and fails to extrapolate well to long video sequences. Additionally, training on long videos is computationally expensive, as vision tokens grow much faster than language tokens. To tackle these issues, we propose balancing locality and long-range dependency. We introduce FlexRoPE, an test-time technique that adds flexible temporal decay to RoPE, enabling extrapolation to 16x longer vision contexts. Furthermore, we propose long short-term context modeling, where a high-resolution short-term context window ensures fine-grained temporal consistency, while an unlimited long-term context window encodes long-range information using fewer tokens. With this approach, we can train on long video sequences with a manageable token context length. We demonstrate that FAR achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-video generation, providing a simple yet effective baseline for video autoregressive modeling.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

Future motion representations, such as optical flow, offer immense value for control and generative tasks. However, forecasting generalizable spatially dense motion representations remains a key challenge, and learning such forecasting from noisy, real-world data remains relatively unexplored. We introduce FOFPred, a novel language-conditioned optical flow forecasting model featuring a unified Vision-Language Model (VLM) and Diffusion architecture. This unique combination enables strong multimodal reasoning with pixel-level generative fidelity for future motion prediction. Our model is trained on web-scale human activity data-a highly scalable but unstructured source. To extract meaningful signals from this noisy video-caption data, we employ crucial data preprocessing techniques and our unified architecture with strong image pretraining. The resulting trained model is then extended to tackle two distinct downstream tasks in control and generation. Evaluations across robotic manipulation and video generation under language-driven settings establish the cross-domain versatility of FOFPred, confirming the value of a unified VLM-Diffusion architecture and scalable learning from diverse web data for future optical flow prediction.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Predicting future dynamics is crucial for applications like autonomous driving and robotics, where understanding the environment is key. Existing pixel-level methods are computationally expensive and often focus on irrelevant details. To address these challenges, we introduce DINO-Foresight, a novel framework that operates in the semantic feature space of pretrained Vision Foundation Models (VFMs). Our approach trains a masked feature transformer in a self-supervised manner to predict the evolution of VFM features over time. By forecasting these features, we can apply off-the-shelf, task-specific heads for various scene understanding tasks. In this framework, VFM features are treated as a latent space, to which different heads attach to perform specific tasks for future-frame analysis. Extensive experiments show that our framework outperforms existing methods, demonstrating its robustness and scalability. Additionally, we highlight how intermediate transformer representations in DINO-Foresight improve downstream task performance, offering a promising path for the self-supervised enhancement of VFM features. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/DINO-Foresight .

Forecasting what will happen next is a critical skill for general-purpose systems that plan or act in the world at different levels of abstraction. In this paper, we identify a strong correlation between a vision model's perceptual ability and its generalist forecasting performance over short time horizons. This trend holds across a diverse set of pretrained models-including those trained generatively-and across multiple levels of abstraction, from raw pixels to depth, point tracks, and object motion. The result is made possible by a novel generalist forecasting framework that operates on any frozen vision backbone: we train latent diffusion models to forecast future features in the frozen representation space, which are then decoded via lightweight, task-specific readouts. To enable consistent evaluation across tasks, we introduce distributional metrics that compare distributional properties directly in the space of downstream tasks and apply this framework to nine models and four tasks. Our results highlight the value of bridging representation learning and generative modeling for temporally grounded video understanding.

We present a new task that predicts future locations of people observed in first-person videos. Consider a first-person video stream continuously recorded by a wearable camera. Given a short clip of a person that is extracted from the complete stream, we aim to predict that person's location in future frames. To facilitate this future person localization ability, we make the following three key observations: a) First-person videos typically involve significant ego-motion which greatly affects the location of the target person in future frames; b) Scales of the target person act as a salient cue to estimate a perspective effect in first-person videos; c) First-person videos often capture people up-close, making it easier to leverage target poses (e.g., where they look) for predicting their future locations. We incorporate these three observations into a prediction framework with a multi-stream convolution-deconvolution architecture. Experimental results reveal our method to be effective on our new dataset as well as on a public social interaction dataset.

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

Long-term activity forecasting is an especially challenging research problem because it requires understanding the temporal relationships between observed actions, as well as the variability and complexity of human activities. Despite relying on strong supervision via expensive human annotations, state-of-the-art forecasting approaches often generalize poorly to unseen data. To alleviate this issue, we propose Multiscale Video Pretraining (MVP), a novel self-supervised pretraining approach that learns robust representations for forecasting by learning to predict contextualized representations of future video clips over multiple timescales. MVP is based on our observation that actions in videos have a multiscale nature, where atomic actions typically occur at a short timescale and more complex actions may span longer timescales. We compare MVP to state-of-the-art self-supervised video learning approaches on downstream long-term forecasting tasks including long-term action anticipation and video summary prediction. Our comprehensive experiments across the Ego4D and Epic-Kitchens-55/100 datasets demonstrate that MVP out-performs state-of-the-art methods by significant margins. Notably, MVP obtains a relative performance gain of over 20% accuracy in video summary forecasting over existing methods.

Semantic future prediction is important for autonomous systems navigating dynamic environments. This paper introduces FUTURIST, a method for multimodal future semantic prediction that uses a unified and efficient visual sequence transformer architecture. Our approach incorporates a multimodal masked visual modeling objective and a novel masking mechanism designed for multimodal training. This allows the model to effectively integrate visible information from various modalities, improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, we propose a VAE-free hierarchical tokenization process, which reduces computational complexity, streamlines the training pipeline, and enables end-to-end training with high-resolution, multimodal inputs. We validate FUTURIST on the Cityscapes dataset, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance in future semantic segmentation for both short- and mid-term forecasting. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/FUTURIST .

Next-Token Prediction (NTP) is a de facto approach for autoregressive (AR) video generation, but it suffers from suboptimal unidirectional dependencies and slow inference speed. In this work, we propose a semi-autoregressive (semi-AR) framework, called Next-Block Prediction (NBP), for video generation. By uniformly decomposing video content into equal-sized blocks (e.g., rows or frames), we shift the generation unit from individual tokens to blocks, allowing each token in the current block to simultaneously predict the corresponding token in the next block. Unlike traditional AR modeling, our framework employs bidirectional attention within each block, enabling tokens to capture more robust spatial dependencies. By predicting multiple tokens in parallel, NBP models significantly reduce the number of generation steps, leading to faster and more efficient inference. Our model achieves FVD scores of 103.3 on UCF101 and 25.5 on K600, outperforming the vanilla NTP model by an average of 4.4. Furthermore, thanks to the reduced number of inference steps, the NBP model generates 8.89 frames (128x128 resolution) per second, achieving an 11x speedup. We also explored model scales ranging from 700M to 3B parameters, observing significant improvements in generation quality, with FVD scores dropping from 103.3 to 55.3 on UCF101 and from 25.5 to 19.5 on K600, demonstrating the scalability of our approach.

We present a neural network structure, FramePack, to train next-frame (or next-frame-section) prediction models for video generation. The FramePack compresses input frames to make the transformer context length a fixed number regardless of the video length. As a result, we are able to process a large number of frames using video diffusion with computation bottleneck similar to image diffusion. This also makes the training video batch sizes significantly higher (batch sizes become comparable to image diffusion training). We also propose an anti-drifting sampling method that generates frames in inverted temporal order with early-established endpoints to avoid exposure bias (error accumulation over iterations). Finally, we show that existing video diffusion models can be finetuned with FramePack, and their visual quality may be improved because the next-frame prediction supports more balanced diffusion schedulers with less extreme flow shift timesteps.

We address the challenging task of anticipating human-object interaction in first person videos. Most existing methods ignore how the camera wearer interacts with the objects, or simply consider body motion as a separate modality. In contrast, we observe that the international hand movement reveals critical information about the future activity. Motivated by this, we adopt intentional hand movement as a future representation and propose a novel deep network that jointly models and predicts the egocentric hand motion, interaction hotspots and future action. Specifically, we consider the future hand motion as the motor attention, and model this attention using latent variables in our deep model. The predicted motor attention is further used to characterise the discriminative spatial-temporal visual features for predicting actions and interaction hotspots. We present extensive experiments demonstrating the benefit of the proposed joint model. Importantly, our model produces new state-of-the-art results for action anticipation on both EGTEA Gaze+ and the EPIC-Kitchens datasets. Our project page is available at https://aptx4869lm.github.io/ForecastingHOI/

The future instance prediction from a Bird's Eye View(BEV) perspective is a vital component in autonomous driving, which involves future instance segmentation and instance motion prediction. Existing methods usually rely on a redundant and complex pipeline which requires multiple auxiliary outputs and post-processing procedures. Moreover, estimated errors on each of the auxiliary predictions will lead to degradation of the prediction performance. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective fully end-to-end framework named Future Instance Prediction Transformer(FipTR), which views the task as BEV instance segmentation and prediction for future frames. We propose to adopt instance queries representing specific traffic participants to directly estimate the corresponding future occupied masks, and thus get rid of complex post-processing procedures. Besides, we devise a flow-aware BEV predictor for future BEV feature prediction composed of a flow-aware deformable attention that takes backward flow guiding the offset sampling. A novel future instance matching strategy is also proposed to further improve the temporal coherence. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of FipTR and its effectiveness under different temporal BEV encoders. The code is available at https://github.com/TabGuigui/FipTR .

We capitalize on large amounts of unlabeled video in order to learn a model of scene dynamics for both video recognition tasks (e.g. action classification) and video generation tasks (e.g. future prediction). We propose a generative adversarial network for video with a spatio-temporal convolutional architecture that untangles the scene's foreground from the background. Experiments suggest this model can generate tiny videos up to a second at full frame rate better than simple baselines, and we show its utility at predicting plausible futures of static images. Moreover, experiments and visualizations show the model internally learns useful features for recognizing actions with minimal supervision, suggesting scene dynamics are a promising signal for representation learning. We believe generative video models can impact many applications in video understanding and simulation.

The unprecedented surge in video data production in recent years necessitates efficient tools to extract meaningful frames from videos for downstream tasks. Long-term temporal reasoning is a key desideratum for frame retrieval systems. While state-of-the-art foundation models, like VideoLLaMA and ViCLIP, are proficient in short-term semantic understanding, they surprisingly fail at long-term reasoning across frames. A key reason for this failure is that they intertwine per-frame perception and temporal reasoning into a single deep network. Hence, decoupling but co-designing semantic understanding and temporal reasoning is essential for efficient scene identification. We propose a system that leverages vision-language models for semantic understanding of individual frames but effectively reasons about the long-term evolution of events using state machines and temporal logic (TL) formulae that inherently capture memory. Our TL-based reasoning improves the F1 score of complex event identification by 9-15% compared to benchmarks that use GPT4 for reasoning on state-of-the-art self-driving datasets such as Waymo and NuScenes.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Humans and animals have a rich and flexible understanding of the physical world, which enables them to infer the underlying dynamical trajectories of objects and events, plausible future states, and use that to plan and anticipate the consequences of actions. However, the neural mechanisms underlying these computations are unclear. We combine a goal-driven modeling approach with dense neurophysiological data and high-throughput human behavioral readouts to directly impinge on this question. Specifically, we construct and evaluate several classes of sensory-cognitive networks to predict the future state of rich, ethologically-relevant environments, ranging from self-supervised end-to-end models with pixel-wise or object-centric objectives, to models that future predict in the latent space of purely static image-based or dynamic video-based pretrained foundation models. We find strong differentiation across these model classes in their ability to predict neural and behavioral data both within and across diverse environments. In particular, we find that neural responses are currently best predicted by models trained to predict the future state of their environment in the latent space of pretrained foundation models optimized for dynamic scenes in a self-supervised manner. Notably, models that future predict in the latent space of video foundation models that are optimized to support a diverse range of sensorimotor tasks, reasonably match both human behavioral error patterns and neural dynamics across all environmental scenarios that we were able to test. Overall, these findings suggest that the neural mechanisms and behaviors of primate mental simulation are thus far most consistent with being optimized to future predict on dynamic, reusable visual representations that are useful for embodied AI more generally.

Recent advances in diffusion transformers have empowered video generation models to generate high-quality video clips from texts or images. However, world models with the ability to predict long-horizon futures from past observations and actions remain underexplored, especially for general-purpose scenarios and various forms of actions. To bridge this gap, we introduce Astra, an interactive general world model that generates real-world futures for diverse scenarios (e.g., autonomous driving, robot grasping) with precise action interactions (e.g., camera motion, robot action). We propose an autoregressive denoising architecture and use temporal causal attention to aggregate past observations and support streaming outputs. We use a noise-augmented history memory to avoid over-reliance on past frames to balance responsiveness with temporal coherence. For precise action control, we introduce an action-aware adapter that directly injects action signals into the denoising process. We further develop a mixture of action experts that dynamically route heterogeneous action modalities, enhancing versatility across diverse real-world tasks such as exploration, manipulation, and camera control. Astra achieves interactive, consistent, and general long-term video prediction and supports various forms of interactions. Experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate the improvements of Astra in fidelity, long-range prediction, and action alignment over existing state-of-the-art world models.

We investigate whether large language models encode latent knowledge of frame semantics, focusing on frame identification, a core challenge in frame semantic parsing that involves selecting the appropriate semantic frame for a target word in context. Using the FrameNet lexical resource, we evaluate models under prompt-based inference and observe that they can perform frame identification effectively even without explicit supervision. To assess the impact of task-specific training, we fine-tune the model on FrameNet data, which substantially improves in-domain accuracy while generalizing well to out-of-domain benchmarks. Further analysis shows that the models can generate semantically coherent frame definitions, highlighting the model's internalized understanding of frame semantics.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Speculative decoding has emerged as a powerful approach to accelerate large language model (LLM) inference by employing lightweight draft models to propose candidate tokens that are subsequently verified by the target model. The effectiveness of this paradigm critically depends on the quality of the draft model. While recent advances such as the EAGLE series achieve state-of-the-art speedup, existing draft models remain limited by error accumulation: they condition only on the current prefix, causing their predictions to drift from the target model over steps. In this work, we propose ConFu (Contemplate the Future), a novel speculative decoding framework that enables draft models to anticipate the future direction of generation. ConFu introduces (i) contemplate tokens and soft prompts that allow the draft model to leverage future-oriented signals from the target model at negligible cost, (ii) a dynamic contemplate token mechanism with MoE to enable context-aware future prediction, and (iii) a training framework with anchor token sampling and future prediction replication that learns robust future prediction. Experiments demonstrate that ConFu improves token acceptance rates and generation speed over EAGLE-3 by 8--11% across various downstream tasks with Llama-3 3B and 8B models. We believe our work is the first to bridge speculative decoding with continuous reasoning tokens, offering a new direction for accelerating LLM inference.

Future link prediction is a fundamental challenge in various real-world dynamic systems. To address this, numerous temporal graph neural networks (temporal GNNs) and benchmark datasets have been developed. However, these datasets often feature excessive repeated edges and lack complex sequential dynamics, a key characteristic inherent in many real-world applications such as recommender systems and ``Who-To-Follow'' on social networks. This oversight has led existing methods to inadvertently downplay the importance of learning sequential dynamics, focusing primarily on predicting repeated edges. In this study, we demonstrate that existing methods, such as GraphMixer and DyGFormer, are inherently incapable of learning simple sequential dynamics, such as ``a user who has followed OpenAI and Anthropic is more likely to follow AI at Meta next.'' Motivated by this issue, we introduce the Temporal Graph Benchmark with Sequential Dynamics (TGB-Seq), a new benchmark carefully curated to minimize repeated edges, challenging models to learn sequential dynamics and generalize to unseen edges. TGB-Seq comprises large real-world datasets spanning diverse domains, including e-commerce interactions, movie ratings, business reviews, social networks, citation networks and web link networks. Benchmarking experiments reveal that current methods usually suffer significant performance degradation and incur substantial training costs on TGB-Seq, posing new challenges and opportunities for future research. TGB-Seq datasets, leaderboards, and example codes are available at https://tgb-seq.github.io/.

Generalist robot policies must follow user instructions while reasoning about how objects, cameras, and robot actions interact in the 3D physical world. Recent vision-language-action models (VLAs) and video world-action models (WAMs) inherit strong semantic or temporal priors from large-scale foundation models, but they still operate primarily on 2D image frames or 2D-derived latent spaces, leaving implicit the 3D geometry required for contact-rich manipulation. We propose the Geometric Action Model (GAM), a language-conditioned manipulation policy that directly repurposes a pretrained geometric foundation model (GFM) as a shared substrate for perception, temporal prediction, and action decoding. GAM splits the GFM at an intermediate layer: the shallow layers serve as an observation encoder, and a causal future predictor inserted at the split layer forecasts future latent tokens conditioned on language, proprioception, and action history. The predicted future tokens are then routed through the remaining GFM blocks for feature propagation and decoding, allowing a single backbone to produce both future geometry and actions. This design equips the GFM with language-conditioned temporal world modeling through minimal architectural modification while preserving its rich geometric priors. Across a broad suite of simulation and real-robot manipulation benchmarks, GAM is more accurate, more robust, faster, and lighter than current foundation-model-scale baselines.

Predicting and reasoning about the future lie at the heart of many time-series questions. For example, goal-conditioned reinforcement learning can be viewed as learning representations to predict which states are likely to be visited in the future. While prior methods have used contrastive predictive coding to model time series data, learning representations that encode long-term dependencies usually requires large amounts of data. In this paper, we introduce a temporal difference version of contrastive predictive coding that stitches together pieces of different time series data to decrease the amount of data required to learn predictions of future events. We apply this representation learning method to derive an off-policy algorithm for goal-conditioned RL. Experiments demonstrate that, compared with prior RL methods, ours achieves 2 times median improvement in success rates and can better cope with stochastic environments. In tabular settings, we show that our method is about 20 times more sample efficient than the successor representation and 1500 times more sample efficient than the standard (Monte Carlo) version of contrastive predictive coding.

We consider the problem of forecasting motion from a single image, i.e., predicting how objects in the world are likely to move, without the ability to observe other parameters such as the object velocities or the forces applied to them. We formulate this task as conditional generation of dense trajectory grids with a model that closely follows the architecture of modern video generators but outputs motion trajectories instead of pixels. This approach captures scene-wide dynamics and uncertainty, yielding more accurate and diverse predictions than prior regressors and generators. We extensively evaluate our method on simulated data, demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream applications such as robotics, and show promising accuracy on real-world intuitive physics datasets. Although recent state-of-the-art video generators are often regarded as world models, we show that they struggle with forecasting motion from a single image, even in simple physical scenarios such as falling blocks or mechanical object interactions, despite fine-tuning on such data. We show that this limitation arises from the overhead of generating pixels rather than directly modeling motion.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Respiratory motion complicates accurate irradiation of thoraco-abdominal tumors during radiotherapy, as treatment-system latency entails target-location uncertainties. This work addresses frame forecasting in chest and liver cine MRI to compensate for such delays. We investigate RNNs trained with online learning algorithms, enabling adaptation to changing respiratory patterns via on-the-fly parameter updates, and transformers, increasingly common in time-series forecasting for their ability to capture long-term dependencies. Experiments used 12 sagittal thoracic and upper-abdominal cine-MRI sequences from ETH Zürich and OvGU; the OvGU data exhibited higher motion variability, noise, and lower contrast. PCA decomposes the Lucas-Kanade optical-flow field into static deformation modes and low-dimensional, time-dependent weights. We compare various methods for forecasting these weights: linear filters, population and sequence-specific transformer encoders, and RNNs trained with real-time recurrent learning (RTRL), unbiased online recurrent optimization, decoupled neural interfaces, and sparse one-step approximation (SnAp-1). Predicted displacements were used to warp the reference frame and generate future images. Prediction accuracy decreased with the horizon h. Linear regression performed best at short horizons (1.3mm geometrical error at h=0.32s, ETH Zürich dataset), while RTRL and SnAp-1 outperformed the other algorithms at medium-to-long horizons, with geometrical errors below 1.4mm and 2.8mm on the sequences from ETH Zürich and OvGU, respectively. The sequence-specific transformer was competitive for low-to-medium horizons, but transformers remained overall limited by data scarcity and domain shift between datasets. Predicted frames visually resembled the ground truth, with notable errors occurring near the diaphragm at end-inspiration and regions affected by out-of-plane motion.

Imagining the future trajectory is the key for robots to make sound planning and successfully reach their goals. Therefore, text-conditioned video prediction (TVP) is an essential task to facilitate general robot policy learning. To tackle this task and empower robots with the ability to foresee the future, we propose a sample and computation-efficient model, named Seer, by inflating the pretrained text-to-image (T2I) stable diffusion models along the temporal axis. We enhance the U-Net and language conditioning model by incorporating computation-efficient spatial-temporal attention. Furthermore, we introduce a novel Frame Sequential Text Decomposer module that dissects a sentence's global instruction into temporally aligned sub-instructions, ensuring precise integration into each frame of generation. Our framework allows us to effectively leverage the extensive prior knowledge embedded in pretrained T2I models across the frames. With the adaptable-designed architecture, Seer makes it possible to generate high-fidelity, coherent, and instruction-aligned video frames by fine-tuning a few layers on a small amount of data. The experimental results on Something Something V2 (SSv2), Bridgedata and EpicKitchens-100 datasets demonstrate our superior video prediction performance with around 480-GPU hours versus CogVideo with over 12,480-GPU hours: achieving the 31% FVD improvement compared to the current SOTA model on SSv2 and 83.7% average preference in the human evaluation.

Spatio-temporal scene graphs represent interactions in a video by decomposing scenes into individual objects and their pair-wise temporal relationships. Long-term anticipation of the fine-grained pair-wise relationships between objects is a challenging problem. To this end, we introduce the task of Scene Graph Anticipation (SGA). We adapt state-of-the-art scene graph generation methods as baselines to anticipate future pair-wise relationships between objects and propose a novel approach SceneSayer. In SceneSayer, we leverage object-centric representations of relationships to reason about the observed video frames and model the evolution of relationships between objects. We take a continuous time perspective and model the latent dynamics of the evolution of object interactions using concepts of NeuralODE and NeuralSDE, respectively. We infer representations of future relationships by solving an Ordinary Differential Equation and a Stochastic Differential Equation, respectively. Extensive experimentation on the Action Genome dataset validates the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities but lack robust temporal intelligence, struggling to integrate reasoning about the past with predictions and plausible generations of the future. Meanwhile, existing methods typically target isolated temporal skills, such as question answering about past events or basic forecasting, and exhibit poor generalization, particularly when dealing with events beyond their knowledge cutoff or requiring creative foresight. To address these limitations, we introduce Time-R1, the first framework to endow a moderate-sized (3B-parameter) LLM with comprehensive temporal abilities: understanding, prediction, and creative generation. Our approach features a novel three-stage development path; the first two constitute a reinforcement learning (RL) curriculum driven by a meticulously designed dynamic rule-based reward system. This framework progressively builds (1) foundational temporal understanding and logical event-time mappings from historical data, (2) future event prediction skills for events beyond its knowledge cutoff, and finally (3) enables remarkable generalization to creative future scenario generation without any fine-tuning. Strikingly, experiments demonstrate that Time-R1 outperforms models over 200 times larger, including the state-of-the-art 671B DeepSeek-R1, on highly challenging future event prediction and creative scenario generation benchmarks. This work provides strong evidence that thoughtfully engineered, progressive RL fine-tuning allows smaller, efficient models to achieve superior temporal performance, offering a practical and scalable path towards truly time-aware AI. To foster further research, we also release Time-Bench, a large-scale multi-task temporal reasoning dataset derived from 10 years of news data, and our series of Time-R1 checkpoints.

Video diffusion models have recently shown promise for world modeling through autoregressive frame prediction conditioned on actions. However, they struggle to maintain long-term memory due to the high computational cost associated with processing extended sequences in attention layers. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel architecture leveraging state-space models (SSMs) to extend temporal memory without compromising computational efficiency. Unlike previous approaches that retrofit SSMs for non-causal vision tasks, our method fully exploits the inherent advantages of SSMs in causal sequence modeling. Central to our design is a block-wise SSM scanning scheme, which strategically trades off spatial consistency for extended temporal memory, combined with dense local attention to ensure coherence between consecutive frames. We evaluate the long-term memory capabilities of our model through spatial retrieval and reasoning tasks over extended horizons. Experiments on Memory Maze and Minecraft datasets demonstrate that our approach surpasses baselines in preserving long-range memory, while maintaining practical inference speeds suitable for interactive applications.

Time series forecasting traditionally relies on unimodal numerical inputs, which often struggle to capture high-level semantic patterns due to their dense and unstructured nature. While recent approaches have explored representing time series as text using large language models (LLMs), these methods remain limited by the discrete nature of token sequences and lack the perceptual intuition humans typically apply, such as interpreting visual patterns. In this paper, we propose a multimodal contrastive learning framework that transforms raw time series into structured visual and textual perspectives. Rather than using natural language or real-world images, we construct both modalities directly from numerical sequences. We then align these views in a shared semantic space via contrastive learning, enabling the model to capture richer and more complementary representations. Furthermore, we introduce a variate selection module that leverages the aligned representations to identify the most informative variables for multivariate forecasting. Extensive experiments on fifteen short-term and six long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms strong unimodal and cross-modal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of multimodal alignment in enhancing time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ironieser/TimesCLIP.

This paper presents a novel approach that enables autoregressive video generation with high efficiency. We propose to reformulate the video generation problem as a non-quantized autoregressive modeling of temporal frame-by-frame prediction and spatial set-by-set prediction. Unlike raster-scan prediction in prior autoregressive models or joint distribution modeling of fixed-length tokens in diffusion models, our approach maintains the causal property of GPT-style models for flexible in-context capabilities, while leveraging bidirectional modeling within individual frames for efficiency. With the proposed approach, we train a novel video autoregressive model without vector quantization, termed NOVA. Our results demonstrate that NOVA surpasses prior autoregressive video models in data efficiency, inference speed, visual fidelity, and video fluency, even with a much smaller model capacity, i.e., 0.6B parameters. NOVA also outperforms state-of-the-art image diffusion models in text-to-image generation tasks, with a significantly lower training cost. Additionally, NOVA generalizes well across extended video durations and enables diverse zero-shot applications in one unified model. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/baaivision/NOVA.

Recent progress in Large Multi-modal Models (LMMs) has enabled effective vision-language reasoning, yet the ability to understand video content remains constrained by suboptimal frame selection strategies. Existing approaches often rely on static heuristics or external retrieval modules to feed frame information into video-LLMs, which may fail to provide the query-relevant information. In this work, we introduce ReFoCUS (Reinforcement-guided Frame Optimization for Contextual UnderStanding), a novel frame-level policy optimization framework that shifts the optimization target from textual responses to visual input selection. ReFoCUS learns a frame selection policy via reinforcement learning, using reward signals derived from a reference LMM to reflect the model's intrinsic preferences for frames that best support temporally grounded responses. To efficiently explore the large combinatorial frame space, we employ an autoregressive, conditional selection architecture that ensures temporal coherence while reducing complexity. Our approach does not require explicit supervision at the frame-level and consistently improves reasoning performance across multiple video QA benchmarks, highlighting the benefits of aligning frame selection with model-internal utility.

This analysis explores the temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer. Temporal sequencing of objects in a movie trailer (e.g., a long shot of an object vs intermittent short shots) can convey information about the type of movie, plot of the movie, role of the main characters, and the filmmakers cinematographic choices. When combined with historical customer data, sequencing analysis can be used to improve predictions of customer behavior. E.g., a customer buys tickets to a new movie and maybe the customer has seen movies in the past that contained similar sequences. To explore object sequencing in movie trailers, we propose a video convolutional network to capture actions and scenes that are predictive of customers' preferences. The model learns the specific nature of sequences for different types of objects (e.g., cars vs faces), and the role of sequences in predicting customer future behavior. We show how such a temporal-aware model outperforms simple feature pooling methods proposed in our previous works and, importantly, demonstrate the additional model explain-ability allowed by such a model.

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Watch time prediction (WTP) has emerged as a pivotal task in short video recommendation systems, designed to quantify user engagement through continuous interaction modeling. Predicting users' watch times on videos often encounters fundamental challenges, including wide value ranges and imbalanced data distributions, which can lead to significant estimation bias when directly applying regression techniques. Recent studies have attempted to address these issues by converting the continuous watch time estimation into an ordinal regression task. While these methods demonstrate partial effectiveness, they exhibit notable limitations: (1) the discretization process frequently relies on bucket partitioning, inherently reducing prediction flexibility and accuracy and (2) the interdependencies among different partition intervals remain underutilized, missing opportunities for effective error correction. Inspired by language modeling paradigms, we propose a novel Generative Regression (GR) framework that reformulates WTP as a sequence generation task. Our approach employs structural discretization to enable nearly lossless value reconstruction while maintaining prediction fidelity. Through carefully designed vocabulary construction and label encoding schemes, each watch time is bijectively mapped to a token sequence. To mitigate the training-inference discrepancy caused by teacher-forcing, we introduce a curriculum learning with embedding mixup strategy that gradually transitions from guided to free-generation modes. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art approaches on two public datasets and one industrial dataset. We also perform online A/B testing on the Kuaishou App to confirm the real-world effectiveness. The results conclusively show that GR outperforms existing techniques significantly.

GPT has shown its remarkable success in natural language processing. However, the language sequence is not sufficient to describe spatial-temporal details in the visual world. Alternatively, the video sequence is good at capturing such details. Motivated by this fact, we propose a concise Video-GPT in this paper by treating video as new language for visual world modeling. By analogy to next token prediction in GPT, we introduce a novel next clip diffusion paradigm for pretraining Video-GPT. Different from the previous works, this distinct paradigm allows Video-GPT to tackle both short-term generation and long-term prediction, by autoregressively denoising the noisy clip according to the clean clips in the history. Extensive experiments show our Video-GPT achieves the state-of-the-art performance on video prediction, which is the key factor towards world modeling (Physics-IQ Benchmark: Video-GPT 34.97 vs. Kling 23.64 vs. Wan 20.89). Moreover, it can be well adapted on 6 mainstream video tasks in both video generation and understanding, showing its great generalization capacity in downstream. The project page is at https://Video-GPT.github.io.

World-Action Models (WAM) initialized from pre-trained video generation backbones have demonstrated remarkable potential for robot policy learning. However, existing approaches face two critical bottlenecks that hinder performance and deployment. First, jointly reasoning over future visual dynamics and corresponding actions incurs substantial inference overhead. Second, joint modeling often entangles visual and motion representations, making motion prediction accuracy heavily dependent on the quality of future video forecasts. To address these issues, we introduce GigaWorld-Policy, an action-centered WAM that learns 2D pixel-action dynamics while enabling efficient action decoding, with optional video generation. Specifically, we formulate policy training into two coupled components: the model predicts future action sequences conditioned on the current observation, and simultaneously generates future videos conditioned on the predicted actions and the same observation. The policy is supervised by both action prediction and video generation, providing richer learning signals and encouraging physically plausible actions through visual-dynamics constraints. With a causal design that prevents future-video tokens from influencing action tokens, explicit future-video generation is optional at inference time, allowing faster action prediction during deployment. To support this paradigm, we curate a diverse, large-scale robot dataset to pre-train an action-centered video generation model, which is then adapted as the backbone for robot policy learning. Experimental results on real-world robotic platforms show that GigaWorld-Policy runs 9x faster than the leading WAM baseline, Motus, while improving task success rates by 7%. Moreover, compared with pi-0.5, GigaWorld-Policy improves performance by 95% on RoboTwin 2.0.

In recent years, generative pre-trained paradigms such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision Models (LVMs) have achieved revolutionary advancements and widespread real-world applications. Particularly, the emergence of pre-trained LLMs-based temporal works, compared to previous deep model approaches, has demonstrated superior generalization and robustness, showcasing the potential of generative pre-trained paradigms as foundation models for time series. However, those LLMs-based works mainly focus on cross-modal research, i.e., leveraging the language capabilities of LLMs in time series contexts. Although they have achieved impressive performance, there still exist the issues of concept drift caused by differences in data distribution and inflexibility caused by misalignment of dimensions. To this end, inspired by recent work on LVMs, we reconsider the paradigm of time series modeling. In this paper, we comprehensively explore, for the first time, the effectiveness and superiority of the Generative Pre-trained Diffusion (GPD) paradigm in real-world multivariate time series forecasting (TSF). Specifically, to mitigate performance bias introduced by sophisticated networks, we propose a straightforward MLP diffusion network for unconditional modeling of time series. Then we employ a zero-shot and tuning-free method to predict (generate) future data using historical data as prompts. The GPD paradigm is established on the time series modality, effectively preventing the phenomenon of concept drift, and enabling flexible forecasting of arbitrary lengths. We demonstrate that the GPD paradigm achieves comprehensive performance and generalization comparable to current SOTA LLM-based and deep model paradigms on mainstream benchmarks and various TSF tasks. Extensive experiments validate the potential of the GPD paradigm and its assistance in future related research.

We present an unsupervised representation learning approach that compactly encodes the motion dependencies in videos. Given a pair of images from a video clip, our framework learns to predict the long-term 3D motions. To reduce the complexity of the learning framework, we propose to describe the motion as a sequence of atomic 3D flows computed with RGB-D modality. We use a Recurrent Neural Network based Encoder-Decoder framework to predict these sequences of flows. We argue that in order for the decoder to reconstruct these sequences, the encoder must learn a robust video representation that captures long-term motion dependencies and spatial-temporal relations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our learned temporal representations on activity classification across multiple modalities and datasets such as NTU RGB+D and MSR Daily Activity 3D. Our framework is generic to any input modality, i.e., RGB, Depth, and RGB-D videos.

Emerging world models autoregressively generate video frames in response to actions, such as camera movements and text prompts, among other control signals. Due to limited temporal context window sizes, these models often struggle to maintain scene consistency during revisits, leading to severe forgetting of previously generated environments. Inspired by the mechanisms of human memory, we introduce a novel framework to enhancing long-term consistency of video world models through a geometry-grounded long-term spatial memory. Our framework includes mechanisms to store and retrieve information from the long-term spatial memory and we curate custom datasets to train and evaluate world models with explicitly stored 3D memory mechanisms. Our evaluations show improved quality, consistency, and context length compared to relevant baselines, paving the way towards long-term consistent world generation.

Deep generative models produce data according to a learned representation, e.g. diffusion models, through a process of approximation computing possible samples. Approximation can be understood as reconstruction and the large datasets used to train models as sets of records in which we represent the physical world with some data structure (photographs, audio recordings, manuscripts). During the process of reconstruction, e.g., image frames develop each timestep towards a textual input description. While moving forward in time, frame sets are shaped according to learned bias and their production, we argue here, can be considered as going back in time; not by inspiration on the backward diffusion process but acknowledging culture is specifically marked in the records. Futures of generative modelling, namely in film and audiovisual arts, can benefit by dealing with diffusion systems as a process to compute the future by inevitably being tied to the past, if acknowledging the records as to capture fields of view at a specific time, and to correlate with our own finite memory ideals. Models generating new data distributions can target video production as signal processors and by developing sequences through timelines we ourselves also go back to decade-old algorithmic and multi-track methodologies revealing the actual predictive failure of contemporary approaches to synthesis in moving image, both as relevant to composition and not explanatory.

Global human motion forecasting is important in many fields, which is the combination of global human trajectory prediction and local human pose prediction. Visual and social information are often used to boost model performance, however, they may consume too much computational resource. In this paper, we establish a simple but effective baseline for single human motion forecasting without visual and social information, equipped with useful training tricks. Our method "futuremotion_ICCV21" outperforms existing methods by a large margin on SoMoF benchmark. We hope our work provide new ideas for future research.

Predicting how a person's first-person view will evolve (what action will follow, what plan completes a task, whether an in-progress shot will score) is fundamentally under-specified: the same context admits many plausible futures, and a model trained to minimize prediction error is forced to hedge or average across them, getting it wrong either way. Two findings shape our approach. First, the future camera trajectory, the path the head carves through space, lets the model commit to one of those futures: it carries the operator's intent in a form fine enough to determine how an action will unfold, substantially outperforming language as a conditioning signal. Second, this same intent makes the trajectory itself partially predictable from the context at hand, enough that trajectory need not be observed at test time to recover most of the gain. We instantiate these findings as TrajPilot, a model that predicts candidate future trajectories from egocentric context and uses them to pilot action prediction in an action-aligned embedding space where language shapes the structure but is never used as a conditioning input. TrajPilot beats VLM and structured-planner baselines on procedural planning across Ego-Exo4D atomic, Ego-Exo4D Keystep, Ego4D GoalStep, and EgoPER, with the trajectory advantage widening with horizon (exactly where prior planners collapse) and holding under RGB-only camera-pose estimation. With the goal masked at inference, the same model performs goal-free anticipation, beating VLM baselines on Ego-Exo4D atomic and extending to EPIC-Kitchens-100 and basketball shot-outcome prediction.

Self-supervised learning has seen great success recently in unsupervised representation learning, enabling breakthroughs in natural language and image processing. However, these methods often rely on autoregressive and masked modeling, which aim to reproduce masked information in the input, which can be vulnerable to the presence of noise or confounding variables. To address this problem, Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) has been introduced with the aim to perform self-supervised learning in the latent space. To leverage these advancements in the domain of time series, we introduce Time Series JEPA (TS-JEPA), an architecture specifically adapted for time series representation learning. We validate TS-JEPA on both classification and forecasting, showing that it can match or surpass current state-of-the-art baselines on different standard datasets. Notably, our approach demonstrates a strong performance balance across diverse tasks, indicating its potential as a robust foundation for learning general representations. Thus, this work lays the groundwork for developing future time series foundation models based on Joint Embedding.